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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Riding for a Cause

Updated: Jan 20, 2025

Riding for a Cause

Being a passionate biker myself, I’ve always believed that the open road holds a unique power, not just to free the soul, but to connect, protect and empower those in need. Over the years, I’ve come across extraordinary stories of motorcycle groups transforming lives, from safeguarding children to redefining freedom for women and uplifting entire communities.


Case in point is the Bikers Against Child Abuse (BACA) in the U.S. This is no ordinary motorcycle club. It is an extraordinary organization with a singular mission: to shield and empower children who have suffered abuse. Established in 1995 in Provo, Utah by John Paul ‘Chief’ Lilly, BACA began with a modest ride of 27 bikers supporting an 8-year-old boy too terrified to leave his home. Since then, the organization has expanded significantly with chapters forming nationwide.


BACA’s members come from diverse backgrounds and undergo thorough training, fingerprinting and comprehensive FBI background checks to ensure they are well-prepared to assist abused children. These bikers collaborate with local and state authorities to provide a sense of security and protection to the children they support. They stand guard outside homes, accompany children to court, and offer a ‘biker family attitude’ that helps these children feel safe and not alone.


One child, known as Froggy, along with her two brothers, experienced severe physical and emotional abuse. During their most challenging times, they found comfort and protection within the BACA community. The bikers’ presence and support have significantly improved their lives, making them feel secure and empowered.


In a similar vein, Indian motorcycle riders are also contributing to social causes and promoting education in rural areas.


Founded in January 2011 by Urvashi Patole, The Bikerni has become a symbol of empowerment for women in India, challenging gender stereotypes and carving a space for women in the male-dominated world of motorcycling. What started as a small group of passionate riders has grown into a nationwide movement, with chapters in nearly every major city.


The Bikerni’s mission is clear: to provide an equal platform for women motorcyclists while fostering confidence, independence, and solidarity. Beyond riding, the group emphasizes community and empowerment, encouraging members to treat each other like family and participate in social causes, making their impact felt far beyond the road.


For these women, motorcycling isn’t just a sport but a statement of liberation and defiance against societal norms. With every journey, The Bikerni redefines freedom and gender roles, inspiring women across India to embrace the open road. Together, they ride towards an empowered future.


In Pune, the Sahyadri Trail Seekers, a biker community established in 2022, organizes events like the ‘Giving Back Ride.’ On January 22, 2023, they rode to Ghogati Vasti near Chandar Village (Panshet). The kind villagers warmly welcomed them, and the bikers, in return, decided to assist the community by distributing household items for Ghogati Vasti and notebooks and books for school students in Chandar Village.


The event held on April 8-9, 2023, was one of their largest trail rides, combining social work with camping by Panshet Dam. The schedule included meet-ups, an exhilarating trail ride, distributing goods, and camping. Although contributions to the cause were encouraged, they were not mandatory.


The Sahyadri Trail Seekers’ efforts demonstrated the power of community and the positive impact bikers can have in supporting and uplifting those in need. Their dedication to social causes, such as donating books and stationery, highlights their commitment to making a meaningful difference in people’s lives.


Pradip Pawar, founder of the Sahyadri Trail Seekers and an avid biker and instructor, envisions expanding his community with the help of doctors to conduct safety awareness and first aid sessions. Additionally, he plans to collaborate with traffic police to raise awareness about traffic rules.


(The author is a media professional.)

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