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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Same Faces, New Twists

Updated: Oct 30, 2024

MVA

Mahayuti’s grip on north Maharashtra is set for a major test in the upcoming Assembly polls as it seeks to recover from this year’s bruising Lok Sabha losses. This largely agrarian and tribal belt — a region that wields significant influence with its 47 assembly seats — has long been a stronghold for the BJP as well as the undivided Shiv Sena. But the recent Lok Sabha results saw the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance flip the narrative, claiming six out of the region’s eight seats, leaving the ruling Mahayuti coalition with a solitary foothold in Jalgaon.


Much of Mahayuti’s trouble lies in the growing disenchantment among tribal voters — a critical demographic across several Assembly constituencies. The government’s recent proposal to grant tribal status to the Dhangar community, which would potentially affect existing reservation shares, has only deepened the divide. Many tribal voters had tilted decisively toward MVA in the Lok Sabha elections, as was evident in the Nandurbar seat, which saw the BJP’s former two-time MP, Dr. Heena Gavit lose to the Congress Gowaal Padvi, who pulled off a major upset win.


Besides coping with tribal sentiment, the Mahayuti has to contend with growing dissent within its own ranks, notably in Nashik. A political tussle between allies – Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP – has erupted in Nashik where new twists threatening the stability of traditional strongholds.

Suhas Kande, the Shiv Sena MLA from Nandgaon, recently signalled his intent to move his political base to Yeola— the turf long dominated by the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)’s Chhagan Bhujbal. This shift is a direct counter to Bhujbal’s nephew, Sameer, who embarrassed his uncle by announced his independent bid for Kande’s Nandgaon seat.


Kande’s claim over Yeola has escalated the standoff between two well-known families, with the Yeola constituency now caught in the crossfire.


Kande’s assertion is predicated on the fact that Yeola has a sizeable number of Maratha voters, who are reportedly opposed to Bhujbal given that the veteran NCP leader, with his combative stance against Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, has alienated Maratha voters in Yeola – where Bhujbal has been a three-term MLA.


Kande’s challenge to Bhujbal underscores a deep-seated rivalry, dating back to 2019 when he defeated Chhagan Bhujbal’s son, Pankaj, for the Nandgaon seat. This latest move has stirred apprehension within the Shiv Sena camp, as leaders worry that Kande’s shift might weaken their presence in Nandgaon.

However, with nephew Sameer taking an independent path, Bhujbal appears confident of his influence over Yeola, predicting a margin increase over his previous win.


Meanwhile, the BJP is going along with tried and tested names in its list for north Maharashtra, where notable endorsements include incumbent MLAs like Girish Mahajan and Vijaykumar Gavit. A few fresh faces like Anup Agarwal in Dhule City, Amol Jawale in Raver, and Pratibha Pachpute in Shrigonda are expected to invigorate the party’s campaign here. While the list reflects continuity in regions where the party holds sway, some Nashik city BJP members are less than pleased, with dissenting noises made over the perceived anti-incumbency  of some legislators who have been renominated.

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