Same Faces, New Twists

Mahayuti’s grip on north Maharashtra is set for a major test in the upcoming Assembly polls as it seeks to recover from this year’s bruising Lok Sabha losses. This largely agrarian and tribal belt — a region that wields significant influence with its 47 assembly seats — has long been a stronghold for the BJP as well as the undivided Shiv Sena. But the recent Lok Sabha results saw the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance flip the narrative, claiming six out of the region’s eight seats, leaving the ruling Mahayuti coalition with a solitary foothold in Jalgaon.

Much of Mahayuti’s trouble lies in the growing disenchantment among tribal voters — a critical demographic across several Assembly constituencies. The government’s recent proposal to grant tribal status to the Dhangar community, which would potentially affect existing reservation shares, has only deepened the divide. Many tribal voters had tilted decisively toward MVA in the Lok Sabha elections, as was evident in the Nandurbar seat, which saw the BJP’s former two-time MP, Dr. Heena Gavit lose to the Congress Gowaal Padvi, who pulled off a major upset win.

Besides coping with tribal sentiment, the Mahayuti has to contend with growing dissent within its own ranks, notably in Nashik. A political tussle between allies – Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP – has erupted in Nashik where new twists threatening the stability of traditional strongholds.

Suhas Kande, the Shiv Sena MLA from Nandgaon, recently signalled his intent to move his political base to Yeola— the turf long dominated by the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)’s Chhagan Bhujbal. This shift is a direct counter to Bhujbal’s nephew, Sameer, who embarrassed his uncle by announced his independent bid for Kande’s Nandgaon seat.

Kande’s claim over Yeola has escalated the standoff between two well-known families, with the Yeola constituency now caught in the crossfire.

Kande’s assertion is predicated on the fact that Yeola has a sizeable number of Maratha voters, who are reportedly opposed to Bhujbal given that the veteran NCP leader, with his combative stance against Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, has alienated Maratha voters in Yeola – where Bhujbal has been a three-term MLA.

Kande’s challenge to Bhujbal underscores a deep-seated rivalry, dating back to 2019 when he defeated Chhagan Bhujbal’s son, Pankaj, for the Nandgaon seat. This latest move has stirred apprehension within the Shiv Sena camp, as leaders worry that Kande’s shift might weaken their presence in Nandgaon.

However, with nephew Sameer taking an independent path, Bhujbal appears confident of his influence over Yeola, predicting a margin increase over his previous win.

Meanwhile, the BJP is going along with tried and tested names in its list for north Maharashtra, where notable endorsements include incumbent MLAs like Girish Mahajan and Vijaykumar Gavit. A few fresh faces like Anup Agarwal in Dhule City, Amol Jawale in Raver, and Pratibha Pachpute in Shrigonda are expected to invigorate the party’s campaign here. While the list reflects continuity in regions where the party holds sway, some Nashik city BJP members are less than pleased, with dissenting noises made over the perceived anti-incumbency  of some legislators who have been renominated.