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By:

Parashram Patil

14 January 2026 at 8:49:45 pm

Crops of Conflict

As water and climate become instruments of geopolitical leverage, India has an opportunity to turn agricultural resilience into a new form of South-South diplomacy. Climate change is making an old truth harder to ignore: food security is national security. As water becomes scarcer, harvests more erratic and trade policies more protectionist, agriculture is moving from the margins of geopolitics to its centre. Nowhere is this clearer than in Africa, where fragile food systems intersect with...

Crops of Conflict

As water and climate become instruments of geopolitical leverage, India has an opportunity to turn agricultural resilience into a new form of South-South diplomacy. Climate change is making an old truth harder to ignore: food security is national security. As water becomes scarcer, harvests more erratic and trade policies more protectionist, agriculture is moving from the margins of geopolitics to its centre. Nowhere is this clearer than in Africa, where fragile food systems intersect with contested rivers, conflict and disrupted supply chains. For India, this presents not merely a humanitarian challenge but an opportunity to practise a more strategic form of food diplomacy. Clear Warning The Nile basin offers the clearest warning. Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia depend heavily on the river, directly or indirectly, for agriculture and livelihoods. Egypt obtains roughly 90-95 percent of its water from the Nile, with most of its withdrawals going to agriculture. Wheat, rice, maize and cotton are therefore inseparable from the country's water security. Sudan is similarly dependent on the Main Nile and its Blue and White Nile tributaries for crops including sorghum, wheat, cotton and sugarcane. Ethiopia, by contrast, relies much more heavily on rain-fed agriculture, but the Blue Nile remains crucial to its plans for agricultural and economic expansion. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has transformed this already delicate equation. The Blue Nile supplies roughly 85 percent of the Nile's runoff, giving Ethiopia substantial geographical leverage upstream. Egypt and Sudan, downstream and more dependent on the river, have consequently viewed the dam through the prism of food and water security. The dispute has its roots partly in the 1959 agreement that allocated Nile waters between Egypt and Sudan, but the rise of Ethiopia as a major upstream power has altered the political balance. The stakes are enormous. A disruption to water availability is not simply an environmental problem when millions depend on irrigated agriculture. It can affect food prices, livelihoods, migration and political stability. Across the basin, the consequences potentially extend to hundreds of millions of people. The lesson is straightforward: rivers can become geopolitical infrastructure, and crops can become strategic assets. Critical Role This is where India can play a useful role. Its longstanding diplomatic, commercial and maritime links with Africa give it an established platform. Its experience in producing wheat, rice and millets, meanwhile, gives it something more tangible: the ability to contribute to food-supply resilience. Egypt, for instance, remains heavily dependent on imports and is projected to require around 13 million tonnes of wheat imports to bridge its consumption gap. Sudan’s agricultural crisis is still more acute. Conflict and climate stress have sharply reduced cereal production, leaving output well below recent historical averages. India could therefore build food diplomacy around two complementary tracks. The first is supply. Predictable grain arrangements and strategic food buffers could help vulnerable countries absorb shocks in international markets. The second is technology. India's experience with micro-irrigation, precision farming and water-use efficiency offers tools that may help African farmers produce more with less water. The Per Drop More Crop component of the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana is one example. Drip irrigation, improved canal management, seepage reduction and precision agriculture cannot resolve a dispute over the Nile, but they can reduce the amount of water required to produce a given crop. For this to become a durable strategy, however, India will need to move beyond individual projects. Bilateral agricultural agreements with African countries could be converted into longer-term trade corridors and grain-supply arrangements. Multilateral platforms, including BRICS, could provide mechanisms for greater transparency in food distribution and market stabilisation. Seed exchanges could focus on drought-tolerant millets, biofortified wheat and heat-resistant maize suited to increasingly volatile climates. Indian private enterprise could be brought into this architecture. Agritech startups and Farmer-Producer Organisations could be encouraged to enter African markets through export-linked grants, incubation programmes and risk-sharing mechanisms. EXIM Bank credit lines and export guarantees could reduce the financial risks of deploying solar cold chains, irrigation systems and agricultural technologies in politically volatile markets. Public-private partnerships could also help Indian firms adapt AI-based crop advisory systems and IoT-enabled water sensors to African soils and farming practices. The larger opportunity is strategic. India’s relationship with Africa need not be confined to trade, infrastructure or diplomatic declarations. Agriculture offers a practical form of South-South cooperation in which food, technology and water efficiency reinforce one another. (The writer is a member of Maharashtra Agriculture Price Commission. Views personal.

Shinde, the new star on the horizon

Swapnil R Mishra
Nov 24, 2024
3 min read

Updated: Nov 25, 2024

Eknath Shinde

Mumbai: It’s a double win for Eknath Shinde. Not only has the chief minister won his seat of Kopri-Pachpakhadi, but his Shiv Sena faction has emerged as the second largest party in the state of Maharashtra — with 55 seats.

Following the win, Shinde acknowledged the people’s mandate, expressing his gratitude to the people for giving a thumping majority and a landslide victory to the Mahayuti. “I extend my heartfelt thanks to my beloved sisters, farmers, youths, and all segments who have voted for us. This is a reflection of the work we have done in the last two-and-a-half years.”


Speaking to reporters Saturday evening, the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis said the Mahayuti leaders had been instructed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah that the Chief Minister would be selected after a consultation between all. “There will be no dispute about who will be the Chief Minister... it was decided from day one that, after the election, the leaders of the three parties will sit together and decide this,” he said. “The decision will be acceptable to everyone, there is no dispute on this.”


Meanwhile, senior leaders said that there is no doubt CM Shinde has led the alliance from the forefront and was quick in making decisions which has benefited the MahaYuti alliance in this election. Moreover, strong support from PM Narendra Modi and HM Amit Shah made it easier to win the election. “If talking about who will be the next CM will only be decided by top leaders of MahaYuti. But one cannot deny current CM Shinde has worked towards the progress of Maharashtra not only but also strengthen the alliance by having fruitful discussions before taking any step so that it doesn’t get backfired,” he said.


The win has also solidified Shinde’s position in Maharashtra politics, with many stating that he is now the true inheritor of Bal Thackeray’s legacy. His deputy, Devendra Fadnavis went one step ahead and said, “People have given their mandate and have accepted Eknath Shinde as the real Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar has got the legitimacy of NCP.”


Shiv Sena contested a total of 81 seats. As per the Election Commission, of this, they are ahead in 55 seats. This gives the Shinde a winning strike rate of 67.9 per cent.


Eknath Shinde is also one of the brains behind the popular Ladki Bahin Yojana, which has been credited for the MahaYuti alliance’s thumping victory. The scheme ensures a monthly support of Rs 1,500 to underprivileged women, aged 21 to 65. Many poll pundits believe that it is this very scheme that led to 53 lakh more women voting in these elections compared to 2019, and their voting percentage rising by six percentage points.


Moreover, Shinde has been hailed for his hands-on approach as the chief minister of the state. He also has been able to secure the trust of the BJP. Last month, when a reporter even asked Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis about the CM face of the Mahayuti, the BJP leader pointed to Shinde.


As chief minister, Shinde has also been credited for being accessible. People from his faction as well as the Mahayuti alliance have said that the doors of Varsha, the official residence of Maharashtra chief minister, have always been open to all.


Shinde has also held his own in the Mahayuti alliance. He’s driven a hard bargain during the Lok Sabha and Assembly election seat negotiations, ensuring that his faction isn’t run over by Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis, the two bigger leaders. As one Sena leader told the Indian Express, “Shinde has successfully made sure his people get justice and are rehabilitated which helped him ensure support for him among his party leaders remains intact and the party is strengthened.”

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