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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Silver prices could rise to Rs. 1.3 Lakh by 2027

Silver prices

Currently, silver is trading near a record high of Rs. 96,493. It surged by nearly 36% from March to May 2024. Following this surge, silver has remained within a range of Rs. 78,000 to Rs. 95,000 for nearly five months. Following this period of stability, silver has shown signs of a breakout on daily charts and is expected to surpass a price of Rs. 1 lakh in the near future. Now, let's examine the long-term potential of this valuable metal.


In August 2020, silver reached its peak at Rs. 77,949. Following this peak, it entered into a lengthy consolidation period of almost 44 months. After trading within a wide range of Rs. 52,000 to Rs. 78,000, silver began to rise again, hitting a new high of Rs. 78,000 on MCX. During this consolidation phase, silver created a "Cup and Handle" pattern on monthly charts. This pattern suggests that the upward trend in silver is expected to continue until 2027-28.


It's noted that after breaking out of a "Cup and Handle" pattern, assets often experience a long-term uptrend. By determining the depth of this cup, we can estimate the price target of this pattern. Silver formed this pattern between Rs. 51,857 and Rs. 77,949, indicating cup depth of Rs. 26,092. Adding 1x and 2x of this range to the breakout level, we can calculate the price targets. Rs. 77,949 + Rs. 26,092 = Rs. 104,041 can be the first target for Silver. Similarly, Rs. 77,949 + (2* Rs. 26092) = Rs. 130,133 can be the second target for this "cup and handle" pattern.


The aim of this analysis is to highlight the potential for a long-term upward trend in silver prices. Investors can consider a Silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) for a 36 to 60-month investment period. This investment strategy could lead to significant returns over the next few years.

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