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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Strange Bedfellows

Politics in Maharashtra, as in much of India, is rarely short of surprises. Yet few spectacles reveal its peculiar logic as vividly as the recent elections to the Mumbai Cricket Association (MCA). In a state riven by factional rivalries and shifting alliances, one would expect the cricket turf to mirror the rancour of the Assembly. Instead, cricketing board elections have always been a rare site of bipartisan harmony, where sworn political adversaries shake hands over the boundary line.


The latest MCA election saw Unmesh Khanvilkar elected secretary while Jitendra Awhad - an opposition MLA from Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (SP) and a close Pawar aide - secured the vice-president’s post. The association’s new president, Ajinkya Naik, was elected unopposed after all seven other candidates withdrew. What raised eyebrows was not the result but the unspoken coalition behind it. In a statement soon after his victory, Naik offered “heartfelt thanks” to both Chief Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party leader Devendra Fadnavis as well as Pawar, the wily patriarch of Maharashtra’s politics.


For decades, the corridors of cricket administration in Maharashtra have been smoother than its potholed roads. Sharad Pawar’s influence in cricketing circles is legendary. As president of the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) and later of the International Cricket Council, he helped turn the game into a financial empire. His protégés, including BJP leader Ashish Shelar and now Awhad, have long straddled both politics and the pitch. When it comes to cricket, ideological differences dissolve as quickly as a monsoon wicket.


The Pawar-Shelar combine’s triumph in the MCA demonstrates that where real money and visibility lie, political colours blur. The MCA, flush with sponsorships and real-estate assets, is among the most lucrative institutions in the state. Controlling its means wielding patronage. For politicians, it offers an unregulated zone of influence beyond the scrutiny that comes with public office. It is a curious contrast. Maharashtra’s cities, particularly Mumbai and Pune, remain hobbled by decaying infrastructure and chronic mismanagement. Mumbai’s suburban railways groan under overcrowding, its drainage collapses every monsoon. Pune’s traffic chaos and water shortages are legendary. Yet, where urban planning committees bicker and delay, cricket associations hum with efficiency. Governance in sport, it seems, inspires more urgency than governance in the city.


This political détente over cricket also reveals something about the state’s power economy. Maharashtra’s politics has long been built on control of cooperative banks and sugar mills - arenas that blend influence with income. The cricket associations are the new frontier of that model. For the BJP, aligning with Pawar’s network offers access to a parallel establishment that commands deep loyalty across Mumbai’s business elite. For Pawar’s loyalists, it ensures continued relevance even as their electoral fortunes wane.


That such cooperation eludes Mumbai’s civic life is the real tragedy. The same leaders who can unite over a boundary line appear to vanish when it comes to the city’s skyline.

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