top of page

By:

Rajendra Joshi

3 December 2024 at 9:20:26 am

The Warning Beyond NEET

The Jantar Mantar protests exposed the widening gap between education, employment and growth. The month-long protest at Delhi's Jantar Mantar may have formally ended, but the political and economic questions it raised will linger. Triggered by the NEET paper leak, the movement became a major expression of youth discontent. What began as a demand for a fair examination system became a broader indictment of an economic model that promises opportunity but increasingly fails to deliver...

The Warning Beyond NEET

The Jantar Mantar protests exposed the widening gap between education, employment and growth. The month-long protest at Delhi's Jantar Mantar may have formally ended, but the political and economic questions it raised will linger. Triggered by the NEET paper leak, the movement became a major expression of youth discontent. What began as a demand for a fair examination system became a broader indictment of an economic model that promises opportunity but increasingly fails to deliver employment. The government initially treated the protests as a law-and-order issue. That changed when the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological fountainhead of the ruling establishment, publicly criticised police action and expressed solidarity with the students. The subsequent resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, withdrawal of criminal cases and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's endorsement of the integrity and aspirations of India's Gen Z transformed the political narrative. The issue had moved beyond examination reform to whether India's development model is serving its young citizens. The NEET paper leak was merely the spark. The fuel had accumulated through rising educated unemployment, declining confidence in public institutions and growing frustration among millions of young Indians. Education is increasingly seen as an uncertain investment rather than a guaranteed pathway to opportunity. Every examination scandal reinforces the perception that merit alone is insufficient, while recruitment delays deepen the belief that the system is failing those who have done everything expected of them. India has celebrated its demographic dividend for nearly two decades, projecting its young workforce as its greatest competitive advantage. But demographic dividends are never automatic. They generate prosperity only when education is matched by employment, productivity and rising incomes. Otherwise, they become demographic liabilities that breed frustration rather than growth. The evidence suggests India is approaching that inflection point. GDP has expanded impressively over the past two decades, yet employment has failed to keep pace. Employment elasticity has weakened sharply. During the 1980s, every percentage point of GDP growth generated roughly half a percentage point increase in employment. Today the ratio is estimated at about 0.16, among the lowest for major emerging economies. Growth continues; jobs do not. This disconnect reflects India's growth strategy. Public policy has increasingly favoured capital-intensive industries through subsidies, tax incentives and investment support. Such sectors contribute to output and productivity but generate relatively fewer jobs. Agriculture continues to suffer from incomplete reforms and low productivity. Manufacturing has not expanded fast enough to absorb new workers, while artificial intelligence and automation are reducing opportunities in occupations once regarded as gateways to middle-class prosperity. India thus faces a paradox: it is producing more graduates while creating fewer opportunities to absorb them. The comparison with Asia is instructive. Vietnam and Bangladesh have pursued manufacturing-led growth that has generated substantially higher employment relative to economic expansion. Vietnam's employment-to-population ratio is estimated at nearly three-fourths, compared with about one-half in India. Vietnam has also moved into the upper-middle-income category, while India remains a lower-middle-income economy. These comparisons do not diminish India's achievements. They highlight the urgency of correcting structural weaknesses before they become politically destabilising. History demonstrates the risks of prolonged youth unemployment. The Arab Spring showed how educated but unemployed youth can transform political landscapes. More recently, political instability in Bangladesh and Nepal has reflected frustration among younger populations facing shrinking opportunities. India's democratic institutions are stronger, and its circumstances are different. Yet no democracy can indefinitely ignore the aspirations of its largest demographic group. The significance of Jantar Mantar lies here. India's Gen Z is organised, digitally connected and politically conscious. Social media transformed local grievances into a national movement within days, while traditional political parties largely responded after the sentiment had acquired independent momentum. The RSS intervention further complicated the government's challenge. Once protesting students found resonance within the ideological ecosystem closest to the ruling establishment, the issue ceased to be a partisan confrontation. It became an internal warning that India's youth expect credible institutions, transparent examinations and, above all, meaningful employment. The Centre's examination reforms are necessary but insufficient. Restoring the credibility of competitive examinations addresses only one symptom. The larger challenge is to redesign India's growth strategy around employment. Labour-intensive manufacturing, support for small and medium enterprises, investment in skills, higher-education reform and greater attention to employment outcomes must become central to economic planning. The Jantar Mantar agitation should not be remembered simply as the NEET protests. It marked a moment when India's youngest generation questioned the assumptions underlying the country's development model. Governments can manage protests and reform examinations. But unless economic growth translates into broad-based employment, similar movements will return. India's demographic dividend remains its greatest opportunity. It could equally become its greatest challenge. The warning has been delivered. The question is whether policymakers are prepared to listen.

Strategic Warmth

Donald Trump’s lavish praise of Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit offered a familiar lesson that in international affairs, there is often a vast gulf between atmospherics and reality. Whether it translates into warmer U.S. policy towards India after a period of pretty intense frostiness is another matter.


Trump, who only months ago was disparaging India with the sort of rhetorical abandon usually reserved for political opponents, suddenly rediscovered his affection for the world’s largest democracy. The American president described Modi as a “tough trader” while simultaneously calling him “an angel.” It was the sort of praise-soaked performance that recalled the heady days of ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump.’


Yet, seasoned observers of Trump know that his compliments are often as revealing as they are unreliable. Few world leaders have demonstrated such a remarkable capacity to oscillate between criticism and admiration as Trump. One moment India is a troublesome trading partner; the next it is an indispensable ally, never mind the U.S. willingness to indulge Pakistan’s anti-India machinations.


The contradiction does not seem to trouble Trump. The question is whether Washington is genuinely attempting to repair ties with New Delhi after a period of growing strain.


For all the noise generated by tariff disputes, immigration restrictions and occasional diplomatic irritants, the strategic logic underpinning the relationship has only strengthened. China’s growing assertiveness has convinced successive American administrations, regardless of party, that a stable balance of power in Asia is impossible without Indian participation.


Trump may possess little patience for traditional alliances, but even he understands this arithmetic. His declaration that America would assist India if attacked was particularly notable, given that the U.S. rushed to shield Pakistan after Operation Sindoor.


That said, the obstacles that have complicated the Indo-U.S. relationship have not disappeared. Trade remains a perennial source of friction. Trump continues to view international commerce through a mercantilist lens, measuring success largely through bilateral balances and tariff concessions. Indian professionals and students remain deeply affected by American visa policies.


Modi himself raised concerns about the safety of Indian seafarers following recent American military actions in the Gulf of Oman that resulted in Indian casualties.


Going by Trump’s record, personal rapport be mistaken for institutional trust. The history of Indo-American relations is littered with moments of enthusiasm followed by disappointment. What has sustained the partnership in recent years is not chemistry between leaders but a convergence of interests.


That may ultimately be the most important takeaway from the latest Modi-Trump encounter. The meeting was less a revival of an old friendship than an acknowledgement of mutual necessity. Smiles and compliments make for good television. They may even indicate that both governments are seeking to lower the temperature after months of tension. But in the Trump era, warm words are among the cheapest commodities in international politics.

Comments

bottom of page