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By:

Abhijit Joshi

31 August 2024 at 10:09:24 am

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would...

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would surely be included: “Sharad Pawar ke siyasi faisle par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never assume you know Sharad Pawar's next political move). Few leaders in independent India have reinvented themselves as often, confounded both allies and adversaries with equal regularity, or remained politically relevant across nearly five decades quite like Sharad Pawar. Every major realignment in Maharashtra has, in one way or another, borne his imprint. Backstairs Intrigue That reputation has once again set the state’s political circles buzzing. A late-night meeting between senior NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader Jayant Patil and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, followed by indications that Pawar's party could extend conditional support to the Centre's proposed Delimitation Bill, has revived speculation that Maharashtra may be headed towards yet another political reshuffle. Supriya Sule has firmly dismissed suggestions that her party is preparing to join the NDA, insisting that any support for the Delimitation Bill would depend entirely on safeguards ensuring fairness for every state. Yet, the rumours persist. That, perhaps, is the enduring ‘Pawar effect.’ In Maharashtra, a single meeting involving Sharad Pawar is often enough to trigger discussions of an entirely new government. Pawar’s political career has consistently demonstrated that certainty is an illusion. In 1978, barely 38 years old, he engineered one of Maharashtra’s greatest political upsets. Breaking away from the Congress, he toppled the Vasantdada Patil government and stitched together the Progressive Democratic Front, or Pulod, by bringing together parties separated by ideology but united by arithmetic. He became the state’s youngest Chief Minister, a distinction that still defines his public image. That episode also revealed the two principles that have shaped his politics ever since. Ideology, for Pawar, has rarely been an immovable barrier. Political arithmetic has almost always mattered more. Equally, power has never been viewed as permanent. The pattern repeated itself through the decades. Pawar moved between Congress politics and regional politics with remarkable ease, served as India’s Defence Minister, broke away to establish the Nationalist Congress Party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin, spent nearly fifteen years governing alongside the Congress, and then stunned the political establishment yet again in 2019 by helping construct the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Few believed the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP could coexist under one roof. Pawar proved otherwise. Even the dramatic dawn swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis and the late Ajit Pawar in November 2019 ultimately enhanced Sharad Pawar’s reputation. Within days, he had reunited most of his fractured party and succeeded in installing Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. What initially appeared to be his biggest setback became another demonstration of his political resilience. Today, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is no longer the formidable organisation it was before the split of 2023. While he retains considerable public goodwill, national stature and a respectable parliamentary presence, his legislative strength within Maharashtra has diminished considerably, prompted questions about the party’s future. Reports suggest that sections within the NCP (SP) are increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of remaining in perpetual opposition and favour exploring some form of understanding with the BJP. Pawar himself is believed to have resisted such suggestions, while Supriya Sule has repeatedly ruled out any immediate shift. Yet the existence of internal debate appears difficult to dismiss. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly asserted that there is no question of new entrants joining the Mahayuti. His statement reflects political logic. The BJP already enjoys numerical dominance alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Bringing Sharad Pawar into the alliance may strengthen the NDA externally, but it could also generate fresh leadership ambitions, competing centres of influence and unnecessary internal tensions. Issue-Based Cooperation If there is any movement, therefore, it is more likely to begin with issue-based cooperation in Parliament than with an immediate formal alliance. That explains why the Delimitation Bill has assumed such significance. Supriya Sule has indicated that her party could support the legislation provided the Centre guarantees a uniform 50 percent increase in parliamentary seats for every state. The position differs from that adopted by several INDIA bloc partners and has naturally fuelled speculation. Yet issue-based support should not automatically be interpreted as political surrender. Sharad Pawar has rarely subscribed to the idea that opposition requires opposing every government initiative. Throughout his career he has maintained working relationships across party lines, often separating legislative cooperation from electoral competition. That flexibility has repeatedly helped him preserve political relevance even when his party's electoral fortunes fluctuated. If, despite present denials, Pawar eventually chooses to support or formally align with the NDA, the consequences would extend well beyond Maharashtra. For the INDIA bloc, it would represent perhaps the most damaging psychological blow in western India, depriving it of one of its most experienced strategists and consensus-builders. Congress would lose a veteran ally at precisely the moment it is attempting to rebuild its organisational strength in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) could find itself increasingly isolated, forcing a reassessment of both alliances and political strategy before the next Assembly election. And for the BJP, it would amount to the political neutralisation of perhaps its most accomplished regional rival. Sharad Pawar’s greatest political strength has always been his refusal to close any door before absolutely necessary. Strategic ambiguity has been one of its principal instruments. At 85, he remains among the last practitioners of an older style of coalition politics, where negotiation often counts for more than confrontation, and where tomorrow’s ally may well have been yesterday’s fiercest opponent. (The writer is a political observer. Views personal.

Strength, resilience in a volatile world

Mumbai: India is set to enter 2026 as one of the most resilient and opportunity-rich real estate markets in the Asia-Pacific region, according to Knight Frank’s Asia-Pacific Outlook 2026. At a time when global economic uncertainty, shifting trade policies and geopolitical volatility are forcing markets to recalibrate, India stands out for its robust domestic fundamentals, deep talent pool and a steadily maturing real estate ecosystem.


While Asia-Pacific’s overall economic growth is expected to moderate in 2026, the report highlights India’s relative insulation from global headwinds. Strong internal consumption, policy stability and sustained corporate expansion continue to underpin demand across office and logistics segments, positioning the country as a strategic growth hub rather than a cyclical recovery story.


Office Market

India enters 2026 with one of the strongest office market outlooks in the region. GCC-led expansion, continued technology sector hiring and access to skilled talent enabled the country to record among the highest leasing volumes in Asia-Pacific during 2025. Gross office leasing is expected to cross 80 million sq ft, marking a historic peak.


Bengaluru, Mumbai and the National Capital Region remain the standout performers, with rental growth projected in the range of 7.5–9% year-on-year in 2026. India also crossed a significant structural milestone in 2025, with Grade A-led office stock surpassing one billion sq ft across the top eight cities, reinforcing its scale and institutional depth.


Shishir Baijal, International Partner, Chairman and Managing Director of Knight Frank India, said India’s affordability, regulatory stability and maturing workplace ecosystem continue to enhance its appeal compared to other global hubs. He noted that occupier sentiment remains resilient, supported by a comparatively strong domestic business environment.


A defining theme for 2026 will be the growing emphasis on retrofitting and asset repositioning. Early-2000s office buildings are increasingly facing functional obsolescence, prompting landlords to invest in HVAC upgrades, improved natural light, workplace experience technologies and ESG-led enhancements. Occupiers, the report notes, are now willing to pay a premium for performance, sustainability and employee well-being rather than for space alone.


Flexibility is also expected to gain further importance. In an environment marked by cautious capital deployment and global trade uncertainty, enterprises are prioritising shorter leases, expansion-ready floors, managed office formats and hybrid-fit solutions. India’s cost competitiveness, with rentals in several major markets still below USD 1 per sq ft per month, strengthens its position as a consolidation hub for multinational firms.


However, the divide between high-quality, future-ready assets and older stock is set to widen. As Grade A space now accounts for more than half of total supply and vacancies tighten, occupiers are consolidating into ESG-aligned, digitally enabled campuses. Assets that fail to undergo substantive upgrades risk being priced out of consideration.


India Vs Asia-Pacific

India’s relative strength becomes more pronounced when viewed against conditions in other Asia-Pacific markets. Greater China continues to grapple with elevated vacancies and rental pressure, while Singapore and parts of Southeast Asia are experiencing rental moderation amid cost controls and a substantial development pipeline. Australia’s office markets remain tenant-favourable due to high occupancy costs and cautious corporate expansion.


In contrast, India benefits from limited oversupply in core hubs, steady rental growth and sustained absorption of Grade A space, resulting in a healthier supply-demand balance.


Logistics & Industrial

India also remains the standout performer in logistics and industrial real estate. While rental growth across much of Asia-Pacific flattened in 2025, India recorded sustained occupier expansion driven by manufacturing growth, resilient exports and the accelerating adoption of China+1 strategies. Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR are projected to see around 5% rental growth in 2026, again outpacing regional peers.


Government incentives, infrastructure upgrades and rising investment across electronics, automotive and other industrial sectors continue to strengthen India’s role in global supply chains.


Structural Strength

Knight Frank concludes that 2026 will be a year of recalibration rather than retreat for Asia-Pacific real estate. Against this backdrop, India’s trajectory is anchored in structural strength — domestic demand, institutional maturity and policy clarity.

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