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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Terror Hypocrisy

Canada’s decision to designate the Lawrence Bishnoi gang a “terrorist entity” under its Criminal Code might appear at first glance a long-overdue step toward safeguarding its own society. Bishnoi’s syndicate, implicated in murder, extortion, arms and narcotics trafficking and even cross-border assassinations, certainly fits the definition of a terrorist organisation. The move gives Ottawa the tools with which to freeze assets of the infamous gangster, bar entry to the gang’s members and prosecuting those who aid the gang.


But beneath the veneer of resolve lies a glaring hypocrisy. The Canadian government that now claims to be cracking down on violent actors has for years coddled and provided space to anti-India extremist groups, notably Khalistani separatists and their sympathisers as well as those linked to radical Islamist networks. Canada’s selective morality is dangerous.


The Bishnoi gang was already notorious within Canada. After the assassination of Punjabi singer Sidhu Moose Wala in May 2022, Bishnoi’s network, run partly through his Canada-based associate Goldy Brar, became a household name. Canadian politicians had for months urged Ottawa to act. Only after this pressure, and in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s ouster, did Ottawa finally yield.


Yet, the Canadian establishment continues to turn a blind eye to pro-Khalistan outfits operating freely on its soil, raising money, radicalising youth and openly glorifying violence against India.


The hypocrisy is staggering. Ottawa says it cannot tolerate acts of violence and terror that create a climate of fear and intimidation. Yet for decades, it has allowed extremist elements within its Sikh diaspora to hold rallies that feature effigies of Indian diplomats hanged in mock gallows, parades that lionise terrorists like Talwinder Parmar, the mastermind of the 1985 Air India bombing, and events where calls for India’s dismemberment are made under the banner of ‘free expression.’


When New Delhi raises objections, Canadian leaders retreat behind the shield of liberal platitudes. The Air India disaster itself remains the clearest reminder of Canada’s negligence. Air India Flight 182, blown out of the sky off the coast of Ireland in June 1985, killed 329 people, most of them Canadians of Indian origin. It was Canada’s worst-ever terror attack. And yet, successive governments treated it as an Indian tragedy rather than a Canadian one.


While Bishnoi’s criminal empire has rightly been throttled, Khalistani and Islamist networks still enjoy extraordinary leniency. Consider Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a designated terrorist in India but a ‘community leader’ in Canada until his death in 2023. Ex-PM Trudeau’s astonishing claim that Indian agents were behind Nijjar’s killing, made without evidence, had plunged ties with New Delhi to their lowest point in decades.


Only after Trudeau’s removal and Mark Carney’s rise to prime ministership has there been a cautious thaw. But if Canada is serious about rebuilding credibility, it must show equal resolve against Khalistani separatists as it has against Bishnoi. Anything less would prove that Ottawa’s fight against terror is a matter of convenience, not conviction.

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