The Arctic - Ice on Fire!

Last week, Norway revealed its intention to establish a new joint warfare centre with NATO to train US, British, and Dutch marines in response to increasing tensions in the Arctic region. This new facility is designed to accommodate several hundred soldiers and is scheduled to be operational within two years. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to secure the Arctic region and the ‘GIUK gap’ for allies, NATO has expanded its reach to Finland and Sweden. Following this recent expansion, all the Arctic states except Russia have become a part of the NATO Clan. Meanwhile, in November this year, America signed the ‘ICE Pact’, a joint agreement with Canada and Finland, to build icebreakers for the safety and security of polar regions. Initially seen as drastic, Trump’s threat to exit NATO now appears to be a calculated move, following yesterday’s news that European nations would contribute €500bn to NATO’s defence fund. All these recent trends of militarisation suggest that the Arctic is no longer a ‘Zone of Peace’.

Beneath the layers of ice and snow, the Arctic holds the treasure of hydrocarbons, zinc, diamonds and gold, but severe weather and the harsh regional environment made resource exploration both challenging and economically infeasible. However, the recent surge in global warming has made this region more accessible than it was in the past. Today, the rapidly thawing ice sheet has exposed the hidden wealth more than ever. It has also opened the northern waterways for extended periods. The Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage, of little importance in the past, are now gaining greater significance in maritime trade as prominent alternatives to traditional ways. These new routes are estimated to reduce the travel time between Europe and Asia almost by half compared to routes passing through the Suez or Panama Canal. As a result, the melting North has hardened the competition among the USA, Russia and other Arctic states, each attempting to expand their territorial claims for sovereignty and untapped economic gains. The matter has become complex not just due to overlapping claims of Arctic states, but also due to China, a state outside the Arctic region, seeking to access and exploit the region’s wealth.

The Arctic holds significant environmental and strategic importance for Russia as it stretches over 53 per cent of the Arctic coastline and relies heavily on the region for its energy resources. Consequently, it has a significant military presence in the Arctic. The country has a large military base along its Arctic shoreline equipped with radio-electronic warfare capabilities, hypersonic missiles and a dedicated Arctic military wing that conducts regular bomber sorties throughout the Arctic region. It has reopened approximately 50 facilities constructed during the Soviet era across its Arctic region. Russia remains the only country constructing and operating advanced nuclear-powered icebreakers. And now, it is developing nuclear-powered submarines to transport liquefied natural gas from the Arctic to Asia to reduce travel time. The recent Russian military drills, featuring nuclear-powered submarines and fighter jets, showcased the Russian might to function effectively in the Arctic’s extreme conditions, a skill that NATO troops lack. However, against the backdrop of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions by the West, Russia had to look beyond Europe for investment and seek Yuan loans to strengthen its Arctic claim. This offered the opportunity for China to underpin its influence in the Arctic.

China is leapfrogging US containment efforts and is on track to challenge America’s superpower status by securing a network for its Arctic Silk Route. For example, over 55 per cent of the NATO member countries have agreed to be economic partners in China’s Silk Route Project. China plans to gain control of the Arctic region by exploiting America’s oversight and through investments in infrastructure, a path less travelled by any other non-Arctic state. Accordingly, China has been expanding its influence in the region by engaging with each Arctic state on a bilateral basis, and for all practical purposes, is becoming a ‘near-Arctic state’ despite being thousands of miles away.

On the other hand, US naval presence in the Arctic is outdated and inadequate compared to those of Sino-Russian operations. America’s North Warning System is now over 3 decades old and cannot track down Russia’s advanced hypersonic missiles. Very recently, the US DoD recognised the need for the Arctic force. The military personnel stationed in Alaska are now getting trained for extreme Arctic conditions. In other words, Russia is 30 years ahead of America in the Arctic region. America’s constant dithering elsewhere in the world and Sino-Russia progress in the Arctic Circle have made the Arctic vulnerable to Russian and Chinese expansion.

The recent scientific simulations suggest that the Arctic could be ice-free within 3 to 6 years. But the new Arctic Power Game among the US-China-Russia trio would surely set the Arctic ice on fire sooner than later.

(The author is an expert in foreign policies. Views personal.)