The Battle Beneath the Breakfast Table

The tug-of-war over the leadership change in Karnataka’s Congress government may have quietened for now, but the uneasy calm hardly inspires confidence. The state, after all, has a had long tradition of mid-term political tremors which lends every rumour an unsettling plausibility. The latest spark comes from senior MLA B. K. Hariprasad, whose remark that the so-called ‘November Revolution’ will now be discussed after Makar Sankranti has reignited political speculation. The Congress finds itself mocked once again for its increasingly visible internal disorder.

With only a handful of states under its control – besides Karnataka, the Congress holds Himachal Pradesh and Telangana - the party can ill afford such public squabbling. Its dismal performance in the recent Bihar elections, where it won a mere six seats despite contesting around sixty, has already raised serious questions about its political relevance. In such circumstances, the Karnataka power struggle not only dents the party’s credibility but raises a larger question: why should voters trust a party perpetually consumed by its own feuds?

Root of the Crisis

The current turmoil is the legacy of the Congress high command’s indecision after the 2023 assembly elections. With a clear mandate in hand, the Siddaramaiah vs. D. K. Shivakumar battle for the Chief Minister’s post unfolded almost immediately. The two leaders had jointly campaigned, suppressing their longstanding differences. But their alliance was less a meeting of minds than a tactical truce brokered by the high command for electoral survival. And once victory was secured, with the Congress winning 135 out of the 224 Assembly seats, the race for credit and power became inevitable.

Shivakumar, the party’s master organizer, had accurately predicted the Congress tally months before the election. Siddaramaiah brought experience, a mass base, and the OBC identity that anchored Congress’ caste strategy. Between them lay two competing pathways to revival: Shivakumar’s one was rooted in organisational muscle while Siddaramaiah’s in welfare populism and caste arithmetic. Yet the compromise - Siddaramaiah as CM, Shivakumar as Deputy CM and state chief - was always a band-aid. Whether there was an unwritten promise to rotate the CM’s post remains the mystery that fuels today’s unrest. This vagueness is precisely what has widened the fault lines.

By November, when Siddaramaiah’s government completed two-and-a-half years, the leadership-change conjecture hit its peak. Matters intensified when Siddaramaiah’s son Yathindra publicly suggested Minister Satish Jarkiholi could be his father’s political successor - a remark widely seen as confirmation that something was brewing.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, himself from Karnataka, has also found his leadership questioned over his inability to defuse tensions swiftly. Some even floated the improbable idea of Kharge stepping in as Chief Minister, citing his Dalit identity as a political advantage. But age and circumstance make such speculation unlikely.

In a bid to signal unity, Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar recently hosted each other for breakfast, sending out carefully crafted images of harmony. After all, Indian politics has long relied on visual choreography - garlands, shared meals, joint roadshows - to mask subterranean and internecine warfare. But the truce appears fragile. Shivakumar’s recent trip to Delhi despite his claim that it was merely for organizational work, has only deepened the suspicion that the matter is far from settled. Congress is visibly unsure whether elevating a Vokkaliga CM will upset its delicate caste arithmetic.

Internal Turbulence

The Congress’ refusal to settle internal disputes swiftly is baffling. The party’s past is full of warnings: In Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma walked out after feeling sidelined and eventually became the BJP’s chief ministerial star. In Madhya Pradesh, unresolved tensions between Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia cost the Congress its government and crippled the party for years.

In Rajasthan, the running feud between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot paralysed governance for months and nearly handed the BJP an unearned return. In Punjab, the elevation of Navjot Singh Sidhu over Amarinder Singh triggered a chain reaction that first felled the Congress government and then hollowed out the party’s once-formidable base. Even in Maharashtra, chronic infighting between rival Congress satraps weakened the party to the point where it ceded political space to both the BJP and Sharad Pawar’s rivals

From Rajasthan to Punjab, similar scripts of factional indulgence have ended in strategic self-sabotage. If the Congress does not wish Karnataka to follow the same script, it must act decisively. The BJP watches Congress’ internal rifts more keenly than Congress itself, and Karnataka is no exception. Shivakumar’s recent recital of RSS prayer lines in the assembly—before proclaiming his loyalty to Congress set off alarms illustrating that he cannot be underestimated. The BJP knows his value. Does the Congress?

Complacency today could prove catastrophic in the 2028 Karnataka election. For a party struggling to rediscover its national purpose, losing its most important southern fortress would be nothing short of a strategic calamity. The Congress must choose: resolve the contradiction or watch it explode.

(The writer is a political commentator. Views personal.)