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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

The Boycott Crescendo

Updated: Mar 17, 2025


Crescendo
Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s tariff wars were always bound to trigger a fierce response. The U.S. president, doubling down on his protectionist instincts, has slapped levies on Canada, Mexico, China and his European allies. However, rather than reviving American manufacturing, his measures have provoked a global backlash, igniting widespread calls to boycott American goods and damaging the very industries he claims to protect. From Canadian liquor shelves to European car markets, the fallout from Trump’s tariffs is unmistakable.


Tariff wars have long been a recurring feature of global economic disputes, often with disastrous results. In 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, introduced by the United States in an attempt to shield domestic industries, triggered retaliatory tariffs from Europe and deepened the Great Depression.

Throughout history, trade wars have rarely ended well for those who instigate them. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, one of the most infamous protectionist measures, was meant to shield American farmers from foreign competition but instead provoked widespread retaliation. Countries including Canada, the UK, and Germany imposed their own countermeasures, causing US exports to collapse by 61 percent and deepening the Great Depression.


World trade fell by two-thirds, and the economic isolationism that followed is widely believed to have stoked the nationalist fervour that led to World War II.

Three decades later, an unlikely trade spat erupted over poultry. The so-called Chicken War of 1963 began when the European Economic Community (EEC) imposed tariffs on US chicken imports. Washington retaliated with a 25 percent levy on European light trucks, a policy that remains in place to this day. The protectionist measure helped cement the dominance of American automakers in the pickup truck market, but it also deepened transatlantic tensions over trade policy.


During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan took an aggressive stance against Japan, which had emerged as a dominant force in automobiles, steel, and semiconductors. Reagan’s administration imposed voluntary export restraints (VERs) on Japanese cars, a move that backfired when Toyota, Honda, and Nissan responded by building manufacturing plants in the United States, ensuring their long-term foothold in the American market. The administration also accused Japan of dumping semiconductors, leading to punitive tariffs that heightened tensions between Washington and Tokyo. The echoes of these disputes can still be seen today in the US-China trade war, with similar accusations of intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices.


One of the longest-running trade disputes in history, the US-EU banana war, lasted from 1993 to 2009. The European Union had granted preferential trade terms to banana producers from its former colonies in Africa and the Caribbean, disadvantaging American-owned companies like Chiquita and Dole, which sourced their fruit from Latin America. Washington retaliated with tariffs on European luxury goods, from French handbags to Scottish cashmere, escalating a minor agricultural dispute into a transatlantic economic standoff. Though eventually resolved, the episode underscored how trade battles can spiral into broader economic conflicts, often harming unrelated industries in the process.


In 2002, President George W. Bush imposed steel tariffs, only to be met with European Union (EU) duties on American goods, prompting an economic standoff that forced the Bush administration to retreat.


During his first term, Trump’s administration had slapped tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese goods, ostensibly to punish Beijing for intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. China responded in kind, targeting key American sectors such as agriculture and automobiles. More significantly, the trade war accelerated China’s push for technological self-sufficiency, reducing its reliance on US firms and deepening the geopolitical rift between the two superpowers.


If history is any guide, Trump’s latest round of tariffs will follow the same trajectory. Protectionism, far from making America great again, has historically led to economic contraction, job losses and diplomatic rifts. The backlash now emerging in the form of boycotts and retaliatory measures suggests that America’s allies and rivals alike have little intention of accepting Trump’s trade war without a fight.

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