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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

The Complex Relationship between Film Stars and Politics

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Film Stars and Politics

Scene 1: In 1984, Amitabh Bachchan, one of India’s biggest film stars, won the Lok Sabha elections, defeating Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna by a huge margin.


However, his journey in politics was not as smooth as his success in films. When Bachchan entered Parliament, a well-known politician sarcastically said, “Hope you won’t shoot us like in your movie Inquilaab,” referring to Bachchan’s role as a hero in the film. Despite his popularity on screen, Bachchan’s political career failed miserably. His association with the Gandhi family brought him into politics, but the Bofors scandal tarnished his image. Though he was later cleared, the damage was done, and he quietly left politics for good.


Scene 2: On 25th March 1989, Tamil Nadu’s assembly witnessed a shocking incident. Jayalalitha, the leader of the opposition, was humiliated when her saree was pulled by members of the ruling DMK party. She was mocked and insulted, but Jayalalitha made a strong vow that day: she would return to the assembly only as Chief Minister. True to her word, she became one of Tamil Nadu’s most powerful leaders, breaking barriers in the male-dominated world of Tamil politics.


Though her career was not without controversy, Jayalalitha’s resilience made her a symbol of strength.


Scene 3: Bhagwant Mann, a stand-up comedian known for his mimicry, wasn’t as famous as his contemporary Kapil Sharma. But today, Mann is the Chief Minister of Punjab, leading the state for the last two years. Most of his comedian contemporaries, except Kapil Sharma, have faded away, but Mann made a surprising transition into politics and succeeded.


These three stories might seem different, but they share one common factor— actors stepping into politics. The relationship between Bollywood and Indian politics is complex, with a mix of love and hate. While some stars have managed to do well in politics, many others, including Amitabh Bachchan, Rekha, Lata Mangeshkar, Kirron Kher, Dharmendra, Sunny Deol, Govinda, and Rajesh Khanna, have struggled to make a mark. On the other hand, politicians like Shatrughan Sinha, Jaya Bachchan, and Vinod Khanna have managed to find success. The biggest reason for this difference is public expectations. Amitabh Bachchan, for example, remains an admired actor, but that did not translate into political success. His association with the Gandhi family may have brought him into politics, but the Bofors scandal severely damaged his credibility. Though he was cleared of any wrongdoing, his political career never recovered, and his once- glittering film career also faced difficulties.


In contrast, actors like Vinod Khanna, Raj Babbar, and Shatrughan Sinha didn’t have to deal with the same level of expectations, allowing them to navigate politics more smoothly. From Kashmir to Kanyakumari, there are many film personalities who have tried their luck in politics, but very few have managed to shine. The reason often lies in the gap between their screen persona and real-life expectations. In films like Nayak, Anil Kapoor’s character could make quick decisions when he became Chief Minister for a day, but in real life, it’s far more complicated. Though the film industry keeps producing actors who enter politics, only a small number achieve success. While movie stardom guarantees popularity, it doesn’t ensure success in the tough world of politics.


(Writer is a communication professional. Views Personal)

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