The Enduring Logic of ISRO

PART II: India’s strategic autonomy in space depends on an ISRO equipped to serve both civilian and strategic needs in an increasingly unstable world.

Recently, a certain segment within the Indian space ecosystem, motivated by vested interests and operating clandestinely, has begun to undermine ISRO’s future significance. This segment argues that the commercial sector will lead innovation and that the era of the publicly operated civilian agency ISRO has concluded. However, given the current circumstances, the commercial space sector is unable to replace or overshadow the nationalised space industry. In India, the government-run space industry remains resilient to sanctions and can operate across competing geoeconomic blocs. If India intends to procure the RD-191 semi-cryogenic engines from Russia, the state-controlled space sector would facilitate the acquisition. The Indian commercial sector, particularly startups embedded within Western space ecosystems, is likely to be hesitant in engaging with nations regarded as pariahs by Western states, as such interactions would contravene their existing commercial agreements. Therefore, India’s space program cannot rely on entities that non-state actors prohibit from engaging in business with significant portions of the international economy solely because those entities are considered pariahs.

Institutional Memory

The Indian space programme itself was forged during decades when access to critical technologies was routinely restricted by advanced industrial powers. Following the 1974 nuclear test and later during the technology-denial regimes of the 1980s and 1990s, Indian scientists were compelled to develop indigenous capabilities in launch vehicles, remote sensing and satellite applications. The institutional memory of those years explains why strategic autonomy remains deeply embedded within ISRO’s organisational culture.

Although the Indian commercial space sector is eager to position the Indian government as its primary client, given the government’s encouragement and support over the past six years, there exists a discrepancy between the government’s pace and the sector’s ambitious objectives.

The principal catalyst for innovation in the global space industry is the pioneering endeavours of leading spacefaring nations, supported by substantial financial investments. Indian commercial space entities, particularly nascent startups, derive considerable advantage from the ecosystem in the United States, which enables expedited market penetration, lucrative contractual engagements, cutting-edge research and development, reduced regulatory obstacles, and a more sustainable commercial environment—often exceeding the immediate benefits offered by the Indian government.

Although a match is emerging between the capabilities of India’s startups and the requirements of the US space program, this alignment does not benefit India. Presently, Indian commercial space operators engage minimally, if at all, with many in the non-US ecosystems. As a result, Indian commercial space entities remain heavily reliant on a market that seeks to surpass the Indian government as its primary customer; this market is a significant yet challenging talent magnet, even for other NATO and Five Eyes nations.

Amid a decade characterised by a global polycrisis, the concentration risk within our commercial space ecosystem substantially hampers India’s strategic autonomy. To maintain its role as a primary customer, India must promote the growth of indigenous startups engaged in its implicit space strategy. Anchor customers are vital in supporting commercial space enterprises. Such support can be effectively achieved through the development of a clear agenda that mandates government ministries and state governments to utilise these entities’ services comprehensively, thereby fostering socio-economic development, enhancing both cross-border and domestic security, securing supply chains, and ensuring political stability. Additionally, commercial space stakeholders should seek to explore new markets equitably, particularly within the Global South and among near-peer counterparts in the Global North, thereby indirectly promoting India’s strategic interests.

Dual-Purposing ISRO

Civil-military fusion functions reciprocally. During periods of relative peace, the civilian sector benefits from innovations resulting from this integration. Conversely, in anticipation of extended conflicts, it is the military sector that adopts these innovations. Should, as Prime Minister Modi has implied, the forthcoming global conditions pose significant challenges, then the Indian space program - encompassing its civilian, military, and commercial aspects - must be adequately prepared to serve national defence.

India’s commercial, civil, and military space ecosystems must not become isolated systems; their integration is intended to serve the overarching national objective. The amalgamation of civil, military, and commercial space sectors among prominent spacefaring nations has contributed to recent conflicts in Ukraine, West Asia, Africa, and South Asia. Should these conflicts intensify and spread, major space powers are likely to employ their space capabilities to incite kinetic and non-kinetic hostilities and to develop defensive mechanisms in response.

The role of ISRO holds paramount significance in contemporary times. Maintaining an exclusive pacifist stance for ISRO is as counterproductive as utilising it solely for vanity projects. ISRO is the originator of early-stage technological innovations suitable for subsequent commercialisation and adoption by commercial space entities. Additionally, ISRO develops technologies aligned with India’s national security requirements, which could be integrated by the DSA-DSRA-DGA coalition. While fulfilling these objectives, ISRO also contributes to socio-economic development through space initiatives, a practice it has successfully undertaken, now approached with a strategic resolve.

Formal Restructuring

India now requires an ISRO that actively serves the national interest in both peacetime and wartime and effectively addresses all forms of crisis. The organisation must undergo a formal restructuring to facilitate efficient dual-use research. Any reform in the space sector must include a revision of ISRO’s overarching vision and mission. ISRO’s capacity to undertake comprehensive, non-military, and dual-purpose security projects would be of immense strategic value to India in overcoming the global polycrisis. The polycrisis also demands that the Indian government establish a ‘joint space picture’ by amalgamating sensor data from civilian, commercial, and military space assets, thereby creating a more comprehensive and interoperable space architecture. Moreover, to safeguard this joint-space picture, India must implement all essential security measures across ground-to-space, air-to-space, and intra-orbit communications. There is a lot to do, now that the Prime Minister has articulated the threat he sees emanating from his towering vantage point and the national need to ensure that the Indian growth story remains adaptable but unhindered.

The future of India’s rise will depend not only upon economic growth rates or military expenditures, but on whether the Indian state can build resilient technological systems capable of functioning amid systemic global disorder. Space infrastructure increasingly underpins banking systems, telecommunications, navigation, climate monitoring, military operations, agricultural forecasting, disaster management, and supply-chain coordination. Any disruption to these systems during a prolonged international crisis would carry cascading domestic consequences.

In that sense, the restructuring of ISRO is no longer merely an institutional question; it is becoming a civilisational necessity tied to India’s aspiration of emerging as a leading power during the Amrit Kaal. The coming decade may well determine whether India remains dependent on external technological architectures designed by competing powers, or whether it develops an autonomous and integrated space ecosystem capable of protecting national interests across an era of turbulence.

(The writer is a Space and Emerging Technology Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. Views personal.)