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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

The GIUK Gap: A Maritime Chokepoint Through History

The Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap has long been a key maritime chokepoint, shaping naval strategy from the World Wars to today and remains central to NATO’s security calculus.

The GIUK Gap’s strategic importance emerged during the World Wars when securing North Atlantic sea lanes was vital to the Allied war effort. The UK and US recognised that safeguarding routes between North America and Europe required early detection and neutralisation of German U-boats. Surveillance and airbases in Iceland and Greenland enhanced the Allied’s ability to track and intercept submarines, laying the foundation for a more systematic maritime defence in the following decades.


The Cold War made the GIUK Gap one of the world’s most surveilled maritime corridors. The Soviet Northern Fleet, based in Murmansk, used it to deploy ballistic missiles and attack submarines into the North Atlantic. In response, NATO integrated the gap into its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) strategy. The Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS), a vast network of underwater listening devices, monitored Soviet submarine activity. The gap became NATO’s tripwire—any hostile movement triggered a rapid military response, supported by air and naval bases in the UK, Iceland, and Norway.


Strategic Revival

After the Cold War, the GIUK Gap faced strategic neglect. With Russian naval power seen as diminished, NATO shifted focus to counterterrorism and regional conflicts, diverting resources from maritime defence. Much of the SOSUS network was decommissioned, and patrols declined, creating a critical vulnerability in NATO’s defence infrastructure.


Over the last decade, geopolitical shifts have renewed focus on the GIUK Gap. Russia has modernised its Northern Fleet, deploying stealthier, long-range submarines. In 2019, a major naval exercise tested their ability to pass undetected through the gap. This assertiveness signals Russia’s intent to regain maritime presence, forcing NATO to recalibrate its posture.


Expanding Threat

Simultaneously, the Arctic is also undergoing unprecedented transformation. Melting sea ice is gradually opening new shipping routes, like the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s coast and potentially a transpolar passage. These developments create new economic opportunities but also complex strategic risks. The GIUK Gap, as the main corridor between the Arctic and the Atlantic, becomes the linchpin through which all maritime movement must pass. This geographical reality reaffirms the gap’s importance as a critical surveillance and control zone.


Beyond Russia, other actors are increasingly present in Arctic affairs. China, while geographically distant, has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and has articulated ambitions through the “Polar Silk Road.” Chinese investments in Arctic research stations, ports, and infrastructure are growing. Though its military presence in the region remains limited, China’s increased activity necessitates greater strategic awareness from NATO states. The possibility of joint Russian-Chinese exercises or dual-use infrastructure supporting undersea operations cannot be discounted.


Strategic Adaptation

To address these challenges, NATO has strengthened its posture in the GIUK Gap. The U.S. re-established the Second Fleet in 2018, reaffirming its Atlantic commitment. Allies have boosted ISR investments, enhancing maritime patrol and undersea monitoring. Radar systems in the Faroes and airbases in Iceland have been upgraded, while the UK has reinforced ASW with advanced P-8 Poseidon aircraft.


Joint exercises like Trident Juncture are becoming more frequent and complex, focusing on rapid response and interoperability in harsh maritime conditions. They simulate contested scenarios involving conventional and hybrid threats. Meanwhile, emerging technologies—AUVs, AI-driven sonar processing, and space-based surveillance—are strengthening NATO’s maritime security.


Operational Challenges

Formidable challenges remain. Russia’s Yasen-class submarines feature stealth capabilities that strain detection technologies. The North Atlantic’s deep trenches, strong currents, and frequent storms further hinder surveillance and response. Maintaining real-time domain awareness over such vast waters demands ongoing investment in human and technological capital.


Iceland, the key to the GIUK Gap, lacks a standing military and depends on alliance support. Greenland, part of Denmark, poses logistical hurdles due to its remoteness and sparse population. Effective defence relies on burden-sharing and pre-positioned NATO resources.


The GIUK Gap must be seen within a broader multidomain defence framework. Modern conflicts extend beyond conventional warfare—cyberattacks on naval communications, space-based GPS disruption, and disinformation campaigns affect maritime readiness. Integrating the GIUK Gap into cyber, space, and information warfare planning is vital to NATO’s deterrence.


The GIUK Gap remains a crucial strategic corridor in today’s shifting security landscape. Linking the Arctic and Atlantic will remain central to any transatlantic conflict. As geopolitical competition, environmental shifts, and technological advances reshape the maritime domain, NATO must reinforce its commitment to this key chokepoint. Investing in infrastructure, strengthening allied cooperation, and integrating new technologies will be vital to safeguarding navigation and collective defence. In the coming decades, the GIUK Gap will not just be a passage but a barometer of North Atlantic stability.


(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

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