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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

The Long Shadow of Stolen Votes

From the Congress’s internal intrigues to today’s electoral rolls, the nagging question remains whether ‘vote theft’ is woven into India’s democracy.

The greatest strength of Indian democracy lies in its openness. No issue is too sensitive for public debate. In recent weeks Rahul Gandhi, Congress leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, has raised one such uncomfortable question pertaining to the theft of votes. His charge has made the subject newly relevant, for the essence of democracy rests not on pageantry or ritual, but on transparency and the ability to scrutinise itself.


Yet India’s electoral history is riddled with episodes of fraud and manipulation. In truth, some form of ‘vote theft’ has existed in the political bloodstream for nearly nine decades. Corrective steps have been taken, but too often they have been superficial. The Election Commission, governments and courts have introduced piecemeal reforms only to soothe public tempers without addressing the deeper malaise. Over time, part of society even came to ‘normalize’ these irregularities. That, however, does not make them any less corrosive. Vote theft, in its many guises, has gnawed away at the health of Indian democracy.


Gandhi has homed in on the alleged manipulation of electoral rolls, with names arbitrarily added or deleted. The Election Commission has denied wrongdoing. But the larger question remains: is vote theft only about tinkering with voter lists? The answer is no. Its manifestations are more pervasive: bogus voting in someone else’s name; duplicate entries; the inclusion of ineligible persons or even foreign nationals; the arbitrary deletion of legitimate voters during periodic revisions. To this must be added a less discussed, but equally damaging, practice: the absence of internal democracy within political parties themselves. If party leaders are imposed through opaque manoeuvres rather than transparent elections, how can they possibly nurture democratic leadership for the nation?


History offers ample evidence that Indian democracy was imperfect from the outset. Take the Haripura session of 1938, when Subhas Chandra Bose was elected unopposed as president of the Congress. The following year, Bose won again, defeating Mahatma Gandhi’s candidate, P. PattabhiSitaramayya. Yet resistance within the party was so fierce that Bose was forced to resign within months. In 1946, when twelve of fifteen provincial committees favoured Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel for the presidency, Gandhi’s insistence ensured Jawaharlal Nehru’s elevation instead - a move that paved the way for his premiership. Was this respect for democratic choice or its subversion? In hindsight, it looks suspiciously like an early case of disregarding the majority will, a genteel form of ‘vote theft.’


The point is not pedantic. History shows how much turns on a single vote. In 1999 the Vajpayee government fell by precisely one. If one ballot can topple a government, the manipulation or theft of thousands - or millions - cannot be dismissed as a trifle.


India’s first general election, often celebrated as a democratic triumph, was in practice more ambiguous. Many voters were unfamiliar with the very concept of universal suffrage. Anecdotes abound of young girls dressed in saris to impersonate elderly women so as to inflate turnout. The intention, according to some accounts, was to demonstrate to the departing British that India was “democratically mature.” Freedom fighters later conceded that the exercise was more ritual than rigorous. In other words, the seeds of electoral malpractice were planted alongside the sapling of democracy.


Bihar today provides a microcosm of the enduring problem. During the Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls, numerous citizens discovered their names had vanished. In 2003, residents of Patna found themselves disenfranchised despite being long-term locals. Officials brushed off complaints with bland reassurances: “Get your names added next time.” In the 1990s, voters in the state were told at polling booths that their votes had already been cast. Polling staff would suggest they use someone else’s identity instead. Such practices are a cruel mockery of democracy itself.


To be fair, the system has not stood still. Successive governments and the Election Commission have introduced reforms that have curbed, though not eradicated, malpractice. The rollout of voter identity cards reduced impersonation. Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) made ballot-stuffing harder. Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) have added a layer of accountability. Linking electoral rolls to Aadhaar has made duplication more difficult. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of a ‘Demography Mission’ hints at further attempts to clean up the lists. Yet these remain incremental improvements.


The shadow of vote theft has long hovered over India, whether in the factional battles of the Congress before independence, in the contested first election, in the coercive politics of the Emergency, or in the disputes over electoral rolls in Bihar today. Rahul Gandhi deserves credit for thrusting the issue into Parliament and the public square. But the danger lies in narrowing the debate to technicalities. The challenge is ensuring that every citizen entitled to vote can do so, that no one impersonates them, that parties themselves practice what they preach, and that institutions inspire public confidence.


Democracy, after all, is not limited to pressing a button on polling day. It is a system built on transparency, trust and participation. If the sanctity of the vote is compromised, the entire edifice turns hollow. For India, the world’s largest democracy, the imperative is clear: to learn from history’s blemishes, confront present flaws and build a trustworthy process.


India often prides itself on the sheer scale of its elections: hundreds of millions voting in a dazzling logistical feat. Yet the real strength of a democracy lies not in numbers alone, but in honesty and fairness. Without them, even the mightiest mandate risks being little more than a stolen one.


(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist and political analyst.)

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