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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

The Sabarmati Report: A Cinematic Take on a Tragic Chapter in India’s History

The Sabarmati Report

As we delve into biopics of political leaders and the audiences’ reactions to them, this week’s big release, The Sabarmati Report, is stirring conversations across generations. Scheduled to hit theatres on Friday, the film explores the events surrounding the tragic incident at Godhra Station on February 27, 2002, where 59 passengers perished in a fire. The victims included 27 women and 10 children, with another 48 passengers injured. The incident sparked the infamous Gujarat riots, a period of intense violence that claimed more than 2,000 lives, leaving an indelible mark on the country’s socio-cultural landscape.


For Generation Z, iGen, and Generation Alpha, who may only know about this tragic event through history books or second-hand stories, The Sabarmati Report provides a medium to engage with it on an emotional level. In a time where the lines of narrative are often drawn through political affiliations, the film seeks to offer a perspective that could open viewers to understanding the pain endured by survivors and the long-lasting trauma that still resonates with affected families.


Director Dheeraj Sarna takes on the challenging task of presenting the story through a journalist’s perspective. Played by Vikrant Massey, the protagonist explores the intricate social and political dynamics of the time, aiming to tell the story of the masses rather than favouring one viewpoint over another. The film also stars Raashii Khanna and Riddhi Dogra in significant roles, adding depth to the unfolding drama.


As with any film depicting real-life events, The Sabarmati Report has generated divided opinions. The release of the trailer brought immediate responses from the media and public, with one section labelling it as a propaganda film, while others applauded it as a long-awaited attempt to reveal "the reality." These polarized reactions underscore the sensitivity surrounding events that shaped the lives of thousands and are still viewed through distinct ideological lenses.


The film’s approach to addressing the role of media coverage at the time adds an interesting layer to the narrative. The story points to a perceived difference in how English and regional media covered the event, with suggestions that mainstream outlets may have overlooked certain perspectives. This aspect of the film challenges the audience to reflect on how media framing can influence public opinion, particularly during times of crisis.


Producer Ektaa R. Kapoor, along with Shobha Kapoor, Amul V. Mohan, and Anshul Mohan, has taken a thoughtful approach to ensure that the film invites viewers to consider all facets of the tragedy. They hope that audiences will not see the film as a mere political statement but as a portrayal of an event that continues to shape lives. For those who survived or lost loved ones, the pain remains palpable, and for others, it is a chance to look back and understand a defining moment in modern Indian history.


When dealing with such complex and emotionally charged subjects, filmmakers inevitably face accusations of bias. This has become especially relevant in an era when art and narrative are often dissected through the lens of political leanings.


The filmmakers stress that their goal is to offer a balanced viewpoint and allow audiences to engage with the story as a work of art rather than a political statement.


The conversation around The Sabarmati Report is also a reminder of the delicate balance required when dealing with historical tragedies. While artistic liberties are a filmmaker’s prerogative, they must tread carefully to avoid infringing on religious or cultural sentiments. In doing so, they contribute to preserving India’s rich socio-cultural fabric—a mosaic of diverse perspectives and beliefs. When audiences view the film, they are invited to remember this, to step away from potential divisions and appreciate the film as a nuanced story rather than a critique of any one community or belief.


In closing, The Sabarmati Report encourages reflection rather than judgment. Through the eyes of a journalist protagonist, it allows viewers to revisit an era defined by grief, fear, and resilience. By presenting multiple facets of a sensitive historical event, the film challenges audiences to see beyond easy narratives and explore the human cost behind headlines. Whether they walk away with new perspectives or fresh questions, viewers are reminded that storytelling can be a powerful force for empathy—a necessary bridge across India’s diversity.


(The author is a communication professional. Views personal.)

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