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By:

Bhalchandra Chorghade

11 August 2025 at 1:54:18 pm

Real estate sentiment steadies ahead of 2026

India’s real estate sector appears to have regained its equilibrium in the final quarter of 2025, with stakeholder sentiment stabilising after a phase of moderation earlier in the year. The 47th edition of the Knight Frank–NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2025 (October–December) indicates that both current and future outlooks remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underpinned by improving macroeconomic visibility, easing inflationary pressures and steady funding conditions. The...

Real estate sentiment steadies ahead of 2026

India’s real estate sector appears to have regained its equilibrium in the final quarter of 2025, with stakeholder sentiment stabilising after a phase of moderation earlier in the year. The 47th edition of the Knight Frank–NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2025 (October–December) indicates that both current and future outlooks remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underpinned by improving macroeconomic visibility, easing inflationary pressures and steady funding conditions. The Current Sentiment Score edged up marginally to 60 in Q4 2025 from 59 in the preceding quarter, while the Future Sentiment Score held steady at 61. Although these readings remain below the peaks witnessed during 2023–24, they reflect a market that has absorbed recent volatility and is now progressing on more stable fundamentals. The stabilisation suggests that stakeholders are tempering expectations while retaining confidence in the sector’s medium-term prospects. A key driver of this optimism is the strengthening domestic macroeconomic environment. Real GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in Q2 FY 2025–26, a sharp improvement over the 5.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding period last year. High-frequency indicators continue to signal sustained economic momentum, helping offset global uncertainties. According to Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, stronger macro visibility, steady funding conditions and disciplined decision-making across stakeholders have collectively reinforced confidence. He noted that calibrated residential supply and robust office leasing activity are providing structural support to the market. Funding availability sentiment also improved during the quarter. Most respondents expect liquidity conditions to remain stable or improve, aided by policy continuity and a sustained focus on asset quality. While lenders and investors continue to adopt a selective approach, capital access across asset classes remains supportive, indicating confidence in the sector’s underlying fundamentals rather than speculative expansion. Regionally, future sentiment strengthened modestly across all zones, with every region remaining in the optimistic zone. The South Zone retained its leadership position with a score of 62, driven by strong office leasing in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and resilient demand in higher-ticket residential segments. The East Zone improved to 62 on the back of steady mid-segment housing demand, while the West Zone also strengthened to 62, supported by stable commercial activity and a calibrated approach to residential development. The North Zone recovered to 59, reflecting stabilising sentiment after earlier softness, aided by steady office traction and ongoing infrastructure momentum. The broad-based regional improvement underscores confidence anchored in urban demand and improving economic conditions. Stakeholder sentiment, however, showed moderate divergence. Institutional stakeholders such as banks, financial institutions and private equity funds recorded a higher Future Sentiment Score of 63, reflecting growing confidence in asset quality and liquidity. Developers, in contrast, maintained a more cautious stance with a score of 58, highlighting a disciplined approach that aligns growth plans closely with demand visibility and funding prudence. This divergence points to a market where capital providers are willing to support growth, while developers remain focused on risk management and execution efficiency. In the residential segment, future sentiment improved in Q4 2025, supported by sustained demand in higher ticket size segments and careful inventory management. Although sales momentum has moderated from earlier peaks, improving financing conditions and controlled supply additions have reinforced confidence. Overall sentiment remains optimistic, characterised by stable demand rather than rapid expansion. The office sector continues to anchor overall market confidence. Leasing expectations remain strong, driven by sustained occupier demand, particularly from Global Capability Centres across major cities. Limited availability of quality Grade A space has encouraged pre-leasing and early commitments, supporting firm rental expectations. Sentiment around new office supply has also improved, indicating expectations of a stronger development pipeline even as near-term availability remains constrained. Parveen Jain, President, NAREDCO, observed that the index reflects confidence strengthening after a period of mild moderation, with residential stability and consistent office leasing forming the backbone of optimism. Taken together, the Q4 2025 findings suggest that India’s real estate sector is entering 2026 on a steadier, more balanced footing, guided by economic clarity, prudent capital deployment and demand-driven strategies across asset classes.

The Silent Weapon: Post-Pahalgam, Science May Redefine India’s Strategic Power

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a turning point where hydrological mastery is fast becoming India’s most potent tool of deterrence.

On April 22, the serene meadows of Baisaran near Pahalgam, Kashmir, were shattered by a brutal terrorist attack. Twenty-six innocent lives were lost. In the wake of this tragedy, diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan rapidly deteriorated, culminating in the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty - one of the most enduring frameworks of water-sharing in modern history. Beyond the immediate political consequences, this move opens a new chapter where science, not arms, may redefine strategic strength.


Signed in 1960 under World Bank auspices, the Indus Waters Treaty divided six rivers between India and Pakistan by allocating the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan— thereby enabling massive irrigation, hydropower and drinking water projects across both countries. The treaty also established a Permanent Indus Commission and procedures for conflict resolution, which remarkably withstood the pressures of wars in 1965, 1971, and 1999. Its suspension shifts the balance significantly, bringing scientific and hydrological management into sharp focus.


Water is not merely a resource but a critical factor of national security and resilience. Scientific studies show that even moderate variations in river flows can transform groundwater recharge rates, agricultural patterns, sediment movement, and hydroelectric generation. India’s upstream position on the Indus system grants it a profound advantage if leveraged carefully. Through modern hydrological modelling, satellite-monitored river flows, dynamic reservoir management and predictive seasonal assessments, India now possesses the scientific tools to recalibrate water availability without overt aggression.


Strategically, India can maximize the use of its share of waters through controlled seasonal diversions, storage during critical agricultural windows, and phased hydropower development. Such scientific precision allows India to boost internal water security by enhancing irrigation, energy production and urban water supplies while simultaneously applying calibrated pressure across the border.


Yet scientific responsibility must temper strategic ambition. Environmental science cautions that reckless manipulation of river systems can cause ecological imbalances in the form of disrupted sediment transport, wetland losses, and degradation of aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, India’s advantage lies not in indiscriminate control but in the intelligent, data-driven management of river flows. The use of cumulative impact assessments, ecosystem-sensitive flow adjustments and real-time hydrological monitoring will ensure that India strengthens its position sustainably. Long-term resilience depends not just on asserting upstream power, but on preserving the ecological health of shared river basins. In doing so, India can position itself not only as a strategic actor but as a responsible environmental steward in a region where water will define future stability.


At this point, it is vital to reflect on the paradoxical role of science itself. Throughout history, science has been both a casualty and a remedy during times of conflict. Wars have redirected scientific talent toward the creation of destructive power, yet the same scientific inquiry has offered humanity tools for resilience and reconstruction.


One of the most striking examples of this duality emerged during World War II. The Manhattan Project marshalled some of the greatest scientific minds to develop the atomic bomb, an unparalleled instrument of destruction. Yet it was the very same scientific spirit that later unlocked nuclear medicine, providing life-saving treatments for cancer and driving advances in medical imaging. Similarly, during the same period, radar technology, originally developed for military detection, evolved into civilian air navigation systems and disaster warning technologies that today save countless lives.


The story of Fritz Haber offers another profound lesson. Haber, a Nobel laureate, revolutionized agriculture through the Haber-Bosch process, enabling the mass production of fertilizers that feed billions. Yet he also pioneered chemical weapons during World War I, leaving a dark legacy that still haunts the ethics of science in conflict.


These historical examples serve as reminders that while science empowers nations with strategic leverage, it binds them to the ethical responsibility of foresight and stewardship. The same hydrological models and engineering feats that can strengthen India’s hand today must also be guided by wisdom, ensuring that future generations inherit rivers that sustain, not landscapes that suffer.


The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty thus highlights a deeper scientific reality: in an era where wars are increasingly fought through influence rather than arms, mastery over natural resources becomes a silent but decisive weapon. Command over water, grounded in hydrological expertise and ecological sensitivity, offers India a new kind of deterrence which is subtle, powerful and rooted in legitimacy.


As we remember the innocent lives lost in Pahalgam, we must recognize that the future will be shaped not only by soldiers and diplomats but by scientists. It is through the intelligent stewardship of existential resources like water that nations will defend their dignity and secure peace in a turbulent world.


(The author is the former Director, Agharkar Research Institute, Pune and Visiting Professor, IIT Bombay; He is the current Chair, Water Technology Initiative, DST, Government of India. Views are personal)

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