The Silent Weapon: Post-Pahalgam, Science May Redefine India’s Strategic Power

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a turning point where hydrological mastery is fast becoming India’s most potent tool of deterrence.

On April 22, the serene meadows of Baisaran near Pahalgam, Kashmir, were shattered by a brutal terrorist attack. Twenty-six innocent lives were lost. In the wake of this tragedy, diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan rapidly deteriorated, culminating in the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty - one of the most enduring frameworks of water-sharing in modern history. Beyond the immediate political consequences, this move opens a new chapter where science, not arms, may redefine strategic strength.

Signed in 1960 under World Bank auspices, the Indus Waters Treaty divided six rivers between India and Pakistan by allocating the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan— thereby enabling massive irrigation, hydropower and drinking water projects across both countries. The treaty also established a Permanent Indus Commission and procedures for conflict resolution, which remarkably withstood the pressures of wars in 1965, 1971, and 1999. Its suspension shifts the balance significantly, bringing scientific and hydrological management into sharp focus.

Water is not merely a resource but a critical factor of national security and resilience. Scientific studies show that even moderate variations in river flows can transform groundwater recharge rates, agricultural patterns, sediment movement, and hydroelectric generation. India’s upstream position on the Indus system grants it a profound advantage if leveraged carefully. Through modern hydrological modelling, satellite-monitored river flows, dynamic reservoir management and predictive seasonal assessments, India now possesses the scientific tools to recalibrate water availability without overt aggression.

Strategically, India can maximize the use of its share of waters through controlled seasonal diversions, storage during critical agricultural windows, and phased hydropower development. Such scientific precision allows India to boost internal water security by enhancing irrigation, energy production and urban water supplies while simultaneously applying calibrated pressure across the border.

Yet scientific responsibility must temper strategic ambition. Environmental science cautions that reckless manipulation of river systems can cause ecological imbalances in the form of disrupted sediment transport, wetland losses, and degradation of aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, India’s advantage lies not in indiscriminate control but in the intelligent, data-driven management of river flows. The use of cumulative impact assessments, ecosystem-sensitive flow adjustments and real-time hydrological monitoring will ensure that India strengthens its position sustainably. Long-term resilience depends not just on asserting upstream power, but on preserving the ecological health of shared river basins. In doing so, India can position itself not only as a strategic actor but as a responsible environmental steward in a region where water will define future stability.

At this point, it is vital to reflect on the paradoxical role of science itself. Throughout history, science has been both a casualty and a remedy during times of conflict. Wars have redirected scientific talent toward the creation of destructive power, yet the same scientific inquiry has offered humanity tools for resilience and reconstruction.

One of the most striking examples of this duality emerged during World War II. The Manhattan Project marshalled some of the greatest scientific minds to develop the atomic bomb, an unparalleled instrument of destruction. Yet it was the very same scientific spirit that later unlocked nuclear medicine, providing life-saving treatments for cancer and driving advances in medical imaging. Similarly, during the same period, radar technology, originally developed for military detection, evolved into civilian air navigation systems and disaster warning technologies that today save countless lives.

The story of Fritz Haber offers another profound lesson. Haber, a Nobel laureate, revolutionized agriculture through the Haber-Bosch process, enabling the mass production of fertilizers that feed billions. Yet he also pioneered chemical weapons during World War I, leaving a dark legacy that still haunts the ethics of science in conflict.

These historical examples serve as reminders that while science empowers nations with strategic leverage, it binds them to the ethical responsibility of foresight and stewardship. The same hydrological models and engineering feats that can strengthen India’s hand today must also be guided by wisdom, ensuring that future generations inherit rivers that sustain, not landscapes that suffer.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty thus highlights a deeper scientific reality: in an era where wars are increasingly fought through influence rather than arms, mastery over natural resources becomes a silent but decisive weapon. Command over water, grounded in hydrological expertise and ecological sensitivity, offers India a new kind of deterrence which is subtle, powerful and rooted in legitimacy.

As we remember the innocent lives lost in Pahalgam, we must recognize that the future will be shaped not only by soldiers and diplomats but by scientists. It is through the intelligent stewardship of existential resources like water that nations will defend their dignity and secure peace in a turbulent world.

(The author is the former Director, Agharkar Research Institute, Pune and Visiting Professor, IIT Bombay; He is the current Chair, Water Technology Initiative, DST, Government of India. Views are personal)