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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

The Thrill of Encounters in Bollywood: A Cinematic Reflection

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Thrill of Encounters in Bollywood

The recent encounter of Akshay Shinde, the accused in the Badlapur sexual assault case, has become the talk of the town, with supporters and critics expressing their views. However, this article isn’t about the police action or the criminal case itself—that’s for the judiciary to decide.

What this encounter does remind me of is Bollywood’s long-standing obsession with encounters, and how the Indian audience perceives them. Films based on real-life encounters offer a mix of thrill, drama, and a reflection of society’s complex relationship with crime and justice.

Encounters in Bollywood films have always been more than just police actions. They are spectacles, filled with tension, and moral dilemmas. The connections between the underworld and Bollywood have often been whispered about but rarely discussed openly, adding a layer of intrigue to films dealing with gangster encounters. This “unsaid truth” has become part of the allure that surrounds these movies. In Bollywood, the encounter drama is portrayed in two major ways. One, where the gangster tries to escape from the police—either after being cornered, or when the police receive a tip-off.

When the gangster refuses to surrender and tries to flee, the police, after warning him, fire, often aiming for the leg. If he still attempts to run, he is killed. The second type involves a gangster attacking the police, sometimes even while in custody, grabbing their weapons and trying to make a run for it—leading to his death. These scenarios have played out numerous times in Bollywood, embedding themselves in the audience’s memory.

Take the iconic 1975 film Deewar, where Vijay (Amitabh Bachchan) meets his tragic end in an encounter. In the film’s climax, Inspector Ravi (Shashi Kapoor) confronts his brother Vijay, asking him to surrender. When Vijay refuses and tries to escape, Ravi shoots him, ending the movie with an emotional scene where Vijay dies after meeting his mother. Another similar encounter can be seen in Shakti (1982), where Vijay (Amitabh Bachchan) runs after killing JK Verma (Amrish Puri).

Despite being asked to surrender by his father, Inspector Ashwini Kumar (Dilip Kumar), Vijay is shot dead when he refuses. These encounters were personal, driven by family conflicts that spiraled due to the protagonist’s underworld connections.

Bollywood has produced numerous films that focus on police and gangster confrontations, often claiming to be inspired by real-life incidents. The 2002 film Encounter: The Killing was one of the first to fully explore the genre. Directed by Ajay Phansekar and starring Naseeruddin Shah, the film is a gripping take on police encounters and the impact of crime on families. The plot revolves around a police officer who kills a young boy in an encounter, only to later search for the boy’s parents, who never claimed the body. The movie poignantly highlights the hypocrisy of middle-class parents, disconnected from their children’s lives until tragedy strikes. Then there’s the 2004 film Ab Tak Chhappan, directed by Shimit Amin and produced by Ram Gopal Varma. The story of Inspector Sadhu Agashe, portrayed by Nana Patekar, is loosely based on the life of Mumbai police officer Daya Nayak, famous for his role in the Mumbai EncounterSquad.

The film, known for its realistic portrayal of police procedures and moral ambiguity, became a classic, with Nana Patekar’s performance earning critical acclaim. It’s a film that refuses to sugarcoat the harsh realities of life as a police officer tasked with eliminating gangsters.

The audience’s appetite for encounter-based films was further fueled by the 2007 film Shootout at Lokhandwala, based on the infamous 1991 gunfight between Mumbai Police and gangster Maya Dolas. Starring Amitabh Bachchan, Sanjay Dutt, and Vivek Oberoi, this film took dramatic liberties but stayed rooted in real events. The film’s tagline, “based on true rumours,” perfectly encapsulates Bollywood’s relationship with encounters—a mix of fact and fiction, driven by the desire to entertain while reflecting societal issues.

A few years later, the 2013 film Shootout at Wadala hit the screens, bringing to life the story of gangster Manya Surve, played by John Abraham. The film was praised for its gritty realism and intense action sequences, once again putting the spotlight on the phenomenon of police encounters. While films like Singham and Simmba have more recently presented a more polished, commercial version of police encounters, it is movies like Ab Tak Chhappan, Shootout at Lokhandwala, and Shootout at Wadala that remain etched in the audience’s memory for their hard-hitting portrayal of crime and justice.

In a country where encounters—both real and reel—fascinate the public, Bollywood continues to be at the center of this complex narrative. Whether glamorizing the gritty world of gangsters or raising questions about the morality of encounters, the industry keeps its finger on the pulse of a society that finds itself grappling with these very real issues.

(The writer is a communication professional. Views personal)

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