TMC merger possible, but a LoP is unlikely
- Akhilesh Sinha

- 10 hours ago
- 3 min read
As TMC merger speculation grows amid internal turmoil, Congress is unlikely to replace Mallikarjun Kharge with Mamata Banerjee as Rajya Sabha Opposition leader

New Delhi: After suffering a crushing setback in the West Bengal Assembly elections, Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee is reportedly facing mounting political challenges. With defections among legislators and parliamentarians, resignations by Rajya Sabha members, and growing speculation about the future of her party, discussions in political circles have increasingly focused on a possible merger of the TMC with the Indian National Congress.
Alongside these merger rumors, another claim has gained traction that Mamata Banerjee could be elevated as the Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha. However, a closer look at Congress' internal political calculations suggests that such a move would be highly unlikely.
Long Rivalry
Since breaking away from the Congress in 1997 to form the Trinamool Congress, Mamata Banerjee has frequently positioned herself in opposition to the Congress leadership, particularly Sonia Gandhi. Whether it was national-level political decisions, discussions surrounding the presidential candidature of Hamid Ansari, efforts to marginalize Congress in West Bengal, or debates within the I.N.D.I.A. opposition alliance over accepting Rahul Gandhi as the consensus leader, Mamata has often charted an independent course.
Politics, however, is rarely driven by sentiment alone. Just as Congress and the Left fight each other in states such as Kerala while cooperating nationally against the BJP, Congress and TMC have remained partners within the opposition alliance despite fierce rivalry in West Bengal. Yet if a merger were ever to materialize, Congress would likely determine Mamata's role on its own terms rather than hers.
Merger Speculation
Amid reports of growing unrest within the TMC, Mamata Banerjee has reportedly met Sonia Gandhi twice after arriving in Delhi. Her nephew and senior party leader Abhishek Banerjee is also said to have held two meetings with Rahul Gandhi.
Following a recent meeting between Sonia Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee, speculation intensified that the Congress leadership had offered Mamata the position of party vice-president and Abhishek Banerjee the post of general secretary. Reports also suggest that Abhishek sought the Rajya Sabha Leader of the Opposition position for Mamata. Neither Congress nor TMC leaders have officially confirmed these claims.
No Replacement
Even if merger discussions are assumed to be genuine, Congress faces a major political obstacle in appointing Mamata Banerjee as Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha.
The position is currently held by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. Removing Kharge would carry significant political costs, particularly because Congress projects him as one of the country's most prominent Dalit leaders.
The timing makes the issue even more sensitive. Assembly elections are due next year in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Congress hopes to regain power in Punjab, where the government led by Bhagwant Mann has faced allegations from opponents regarding corruption and the growth of the drug trade. With Dalits constituting roughly 32 percent of Punjab's population, sidelining Kharge could send the wrong political message to a key voter base.
OBC Politics
Congress has recently demonstrated its sensitivity to caste equations. The party leadership reportedly implemented a rotational chief minister formula in Karnataka, replacing Siddaramaiah with D. K. Shivakumar. Siddaramaiah is widely identified with the Other Backward Classes (OBC) community.
In Uttar Pradesh, where OBC politics often carries greater electoral significance than Dalit politics, Congress remains heavily dependent on its alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
Attractive for TMC
Despite these obstacles, a merger with Congress could offer strategic advantages to Mamata Banerjee if the primary objective is preserving her party. The TMC currently has 28 MPs. Under anti-defection provisions, only 19 MPs would be required to trigger a split. Congress, by contrast, has 93 MPs in the Lok Sabha. A merger would raise Congress' parliamentary strength to 121 MPs, making it far more difficult for dissidents from the former TMC bloc to break away and form a separate group.
Complicating matters further, Mamata Banerjee is currently neither an MLA nor a Rajya Sabha member. According to the claims circulating in political circles, her support among TMC legislators has weakened to such an extent that even securing a Rajya Sabha seat could become challenging. That is why she is making repeated visits to the Congress high command.





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