top of page

By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Uncommon Presence of the Common Face

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Uncommon Presence 

In the movie Maharaja, there is a scene that exemplifies the brilliance of Vijay Sethupathi’s acting. Vijay’s character is called to his daughter’s school after she is wrongly accused of mischief. The school owner lashes out at the girl, only for it to be discovered later that another child was responsible. While the issue seems settled, the real drama begins when Vijay Sethupathi calmly asks the school owner to apologise to his daughter. The owner, feeling offended, dismisses him and calls for security to escort Vijay out. In a display of extraordinary restraint, Vijay doesn’t fight or cause a scene. Instead, as he is being dragged toward the door, he grips the bar, locking eyes with the owner, and quietly repeats, “Say sorry to my daughter.” It’s the intensity in his eyes, the quiet resolve, and the understated power of the scene that leaves the audience with goosebumps.

This is what makes Uncommon Presence of the Common Face such an apt phrase to describe Vijay Sethupathi and other actors who defy Bollywood’s conventional definitions of a hero.

Bollywood, for decades, has celebrated a particular mould of the hero: tall, fair-skinned, muscular, and exuding wealthy looks. The leading men have often been those with the polished, picture-perfect looks of the Khans, Kapoors, and Kumars. However, there are exceptions—most notably, Nana Patekar, who, despite his unconventional appearance, managed to command commercial success with his extraordinary talent. For a long time, though, Bollywood didn’t fully embrace actors outside this conventional framework, leaving only a few to pull off lead roles in commercial cinema.

Then came the OTT revolution, which changed the game entirely. As streaming platforms began to gain ground, audiences started seeking authenticity, depth, and diversity in storytelling. With that shift came an appreciation for actors who, while lacking the so-called conventional Bollywood looks, brought extraordinary skill and charisma to the screen. Actors like Pankaj Tripathi, Vijay Verma, Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Jaideep Ahlawat, and Chhaya Kadam became household names—not because of their looks, but because of their sheer talent.

Pankaj Tripathi is a prime example of this transformation. His portrayal of Kaleen Bhaiya in Mirzapur is unforgettable. The series, known for its gritty themes, explicit scenes, and explosive dialogues, wouldn’t have been the same without Tripathi’s magnetic presence. His calm, menacing demeanor had viewers on the edge of their seats, eagerly awaiting his next move or line.

Vijay Verma, another rising star, has also carved a niche for himself with his unconventional looks and immense acting prowess. Audiences remember him fondly for his performances as Sasya in SHE or as Bharat/Shatrughn Tyagi in Mirzapur. His role in Lust Stories 2, especially alongside his rumoured girlfriend Tamannaah Bhatia, became a talking point, not just for his chemistry but for the depth of his performance. In the same league is Chhaya Kadam, a promising actor whose career is filled with memorable roles. She’s left a lasting impression on audiences with her portrayal of Manju Mai in Lapaataa Ladies and her appearance in Jhund alongside Amitabh Bachchan.

Jaideep Ahlawat is yet another fascinating talent whose non-heroic looks have garnered attention to himself. From his gripping roles in Maharaj, Paatal Lok, and Raees, Ahlawat has shown that traditional hero material is no longer a necessity to pull off stellar performances. In the recent film Jaane Jaan, where he shared screen space with Kareena Kapoor and Vijay Verma, Ahlawat held his own and never overshadowed, proving that talent trumps all.

It’s not just about appearances or star power anymore. Audiences today are looking for depth, nuance, and the ability to connect emotionally with characters. Actors like Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Vijay Sethupathi, and Pankaj Tripathi have brought something fresh and raw to the forefront. They’ve made it clear that you don’t need chisseled features or a glossy persona to make an impact. Their uncommon presence—grounded, real, and full of substance—is what today’s viewers crave. In the changing landscape of cinema, especially with the rise of OTT platforms, these “common faces” are proving that extraordinary talent can break stereotypes and redefine what it means to be a star. They are no longer confined to supporting roles or niche films; they are leading the charge, pulling entire shows and movies with their undeniable skill.

(The writer is a communication professional. Views personal.)

Comments

bottom of page