top of page

By:

Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Unfinished Business

It should have been the beginning of the end. After the slaughter of Indian tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, Operation Sindoor was launched with the fury of a nation wronged. For a few decisive days, India’s armed forces pounded targets across the Line of Control and for the first time struck deep within Pakistan, destroying terrorist camps, intercepting drones and dismantling Pakistani air defences.


The moment was ripe to strike deep at the roots of Pakistan’s jihadist state machinery and dismember the rogue state. But then, the momentum vanished after a ceasefire, midwifed by Washington and loudly claimed by Donald Trump, was accepted in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it would seem, held back his punches.


India had a golden window, perhaps a once-in-a-generation opportunity to irreparably cripple Pakistan’s military-intelligence-terror complex. The momentum on the battlefield, the fury in public sentiment and the vulnerability of the Pakistani deep state had converged in India’s favour. Yet, instead of pressing forward, Modi accepted a ceasefire that came on Trump’s timeline.


The decision has reverberated far beyond New Delhi. The fragile secessionist movements in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, watching India’s offensive with bated breath, have been left adrift. Their morale, briefly lifted by the prospect of Indian military resolve, now is in danger of waning. Once again, Islamabad survives.


For all of Trump’s boasts of brokering peace, the precedent is hardly encouraging. A ceasefire was similarly promised in Gaza, yet Israel continues to pound Hamas and Hezbollah targets in Gaza and Beirut. In Ukraine, Trump’s repeated ceasefire claims have led to no resolution. If anything, India should have dictated the terms of any cessation of hostilities, not allowed Washington to stage-manage a premature halt to the offensive.


The optics are equally troubling. India, the injured party, now appears constrained and compliant, precisely the opposite image Modi has spent a decade cultivating. The same Modi who once vowed to respond to every drop of Indian blood with a deluge has now been cast as hesitant and accommodating.


Meanwhile, Pakistan’s playbook remains unchanged. Strike, provoke, retreat. Then, as always, seek cover under international mediation, secure an IMF bailout, and wait for the next opportunity to strike again. Their terror factories - madrassas churning out militants by the dozen - remain operational along the LoC. Their strategy has long relied on drawing India into half-finished fights, buying time through global diplomacy while continuing to arm, train and dispatch jihadists.


New Delhi must make one point unmistakably clear to Washington: the days of tolerating a nuclear-armed terror sponsor in the region are over. America’s long history of bankrolling Pakistan’s military and intelligence services has emboldened Islamabad. Operation Sindoor could have been remembered as the campaign that broke Pakistan’s terror spine. Instead, it is in danger of being remembered as a squandered opportunity. If India is not careful, the cost of this misstep may be counted in the next massacre.

Comments

bottom of page