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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Unfinished Business

It should have been the beginning of the end. After the slaughter of Indian tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, Operation Sindoor was launched with the fury of a nation wronged. For a few decisive days, India’s armed forces pounded targets across the Line of Control and for the first time struck deep within Pakistan, destroying terrorist camps, intercepting drones and dismantling Pakistani air defences.


The moment was ripe to strike deep at the roots of Pakistan’s jihadist state machinery and dismember the rogue state. But then, the momentum vanished after a ceasefire, midwifed by Washington and loudly claimed by Donald Trump, was accepted in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it would seem, held back his punches.


India had a golden window, perhaps a once-in-a-generation opportunity to irreparably cripple Pakistan’s military-intelligence-terror complex. The momentum on the battlefield, the fury in public sentiment and the vulnerability of the Pakistani deep state had converged in India’s favour. Yet, instead of pressing forward, Modi accepted a ceasefire that came on Trump’s timeline.


The decision has reverberated far beyond New Delhi. The fragile secessionist movements in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, watching India’s offensive with bated breath, have been left adrift. Their morale, briefly lifted by the prospect of Indian military resolve, now is in danger of waning. Once again, Islamabad survives.


For all of Trump’s boasts of brokering peace, the precedent is hardly encouraging. A ceasefire was similarly promised in Gaza, yet Israel continues to pound Hamas and Hezbollah targets in Gaza and Beirut. In Ukraine, Trump’s repeated ceasefire claims have led to no resolution. If anything, India should have dictated the terms of any cessation of hostilities, not allowed Washington to stage-manage a premature halt to the offensive.


The optics are equally troubling. India, the injured party, now appears constrained and compliant, precisely the opposite image Modi has spent a decade cultivating. The same Modi who once vowed to respond to every drop of Indian blood with a deluge has now been cast as hesitant and accommodating.


Meanwhile, Pakistan’s playbook remains unchanged. Strike, provoke, retreat. Then, as always, seek cover under international mediation, secure an IMF bailout, and wait for the next opportunity to strike again. Their terror factories - madrassas churning out militants by the dozen - remain operational along the LoC. Their strategy has long relied on drawing India into half-finished fights, buying time through global diplomacy while continuing to arm, train and dispatch jihadists.


New Delhi must make one point unmistakably clear to Washington: the days of tolerating a nuclear-armed terror sponsor in the region are over. America’s long history of bankrolling Pakistan’s military and intelligence services has emboldened Islamabad. Operation Sindoor could have been remembered as the campaign that broke Pakistan’s terror spine. Instead, it is in danger of being remembered as a squandered opportunity. If India is not careful, the cost of this misstep may be counted in the next massacre.

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