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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Uniform Arrogance

Pakistan has a habit of repeating its darkest chapters. In 1959, General Ayub Khan awarded himself the rank of Field Marshal just after he had overthrown a civilian government and declared himself President the previous year. In 1999, General Pervez Musharraf unseated Nawaz Sharif and ruled for nearly a decade. Today, another general in uniform seems poised to follow in their bootprints. Despite being comprehensively beaten by Indian arms in Operation Sindoor, the Shehbaz Sharif-led government has made an inexplicable decision to elevate Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir to the rank of Field Marshal. This has triggered frenzied speculation whether Pakistan is preparing for its next military coup, if history is anything to go by?


General Munir’s sudden promotion is no reward for battlefield heroism. His strategic record is appalling. Ahead of the gruesome April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, Munir had conjured up the ghosts of the two-nation theory and unleashed a venomous, anti-Hindu diatribe designed to stoke tensions within India. This did not materialize. India responded to the Pahalgam massacre with blistering force as Operation Sindoor left Pakistan’s Chinese-made air defence systems smouldering and exposed the country’s tactical vulnerabilities. That Munir, having overseen this debacle, should now be rewarded with a ceremonial baton is farcical.


But in Pakistan, military failure is rarely punished. It is rebranded as patriotic defiance. Munir’s real victory lies not on the battlefield but in Rawalpindi’s long game of power. His term, originally set to end in November 2025, is now conveniently extended to November 2027. Rumours abound that a state of emergency may be declared and that the Constitution may be suspended yet again. These are echoes of a well-worn playbook.


What makes Munir even more dangerous is his lack of subtlety. He is no Musharraf, no Ayub. He is cruder, more theatrical and intoxicated by his own rhetoric. Animated by a cocktail of Islamic nationalism and military ego, his obsession with provoking India along religious lines makes him a uniquely destabilising figure. Like Zia-ul-Haq before him, Munir appears to believe that religious extremism can be wielded as a tool of statecraft. The consequences for regional peace could be catastrophic.


His strategy, if it can be called that, consists of keeping Pakistan in a permanent state of tension with India to justify the Army’s iron grip on state power.


One cannot ignore the wider geopolitical context as well. Is this farce enabled by Islamabad’s foreign patrons? China and the United States have long preferred pliant, military-led regimes in Pakistan that will protect their interests.


India, for its part, must remain vigilant. Munir is likely to seek another crisis to rally support and distract from his domestic failures. Pakistan’s real crisis is internal - a decaying economy, fractious politics and a military elite playing empire as the state crumbles. Munir may wear the Field Marshal’s baton. But he commands neither respect nor victory, only insecurity. And in Pakistan, that is a dangerous thing indeed.

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