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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Uniform Arrogance

Pakistan has a habit of repeating its darkest chapters. In 1959, General Ayub Khan awarded himself the rank of Field Marshal just after he had overthrown a civilian government and declared himself President the previous year. In 1999, General Pervez Musharraf unseated Nawaz Sharif and ruled for nearly a decade. Today, another general in uniform seems poised to follow in their bootprints. Despite being comprehensively beaten by Indian arms in Operation Sindoor, the Shehbaz Sharif-led government has made an inexplicable decision to elevate Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir to the rank of Field Marshal. This has triggered frenzied speculation whether Pakistan is preparing for its next military coup, if history is anything to go by?


General Munir’s sudden promotion is no reward for battlefield heroism. His strategic record is appalling. Ahead of the gruesome April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, Munir had conjured up the ghosts of the two-nation theory and unleashed a venomous, anti-Hindu diatribe designed to stoke tensions within India. This did not materialize. India responded to the Pahalgam massacre with blistering force as Operation Sindoor left Pakistan’s Chinese-made air defence systems smouldering and exposed the country’s tactical vulnerabilities. That Munir, having overseen this debacle, should now be rewarded with a ceremonial baton is farcical.


But in Pakistan, military failure is rarely punished. It is rebranded as patriotic defiance. Munir’s real victory lies not on the battlefield but in Rawalpindi’s long game of power. His term, originally set to end in November 2025, is now conveniently extended to November 2027. Rumours abound that a state of emergency may be declared and that the Constitution may be suspended yet again. These are echoes of a well-worn playbook.


What makes Munir even more dangerous is his lack of subtlety. He is no Musharraf, no Ayub. He is cruder, more theatrical and intoxicated by his own rhetoric. Animated by a cocktail of Islamic nationalism and military ego, his obsession with provoking India along religious lines makes him a uniquely destabilising figure. Like Zia-ul-Haq before him, Munir appears to believe that religious extremism can be wielded as a tool of statecraft. The consequences for regional peace could be catastrophic.


His strategy, if it can be called that, consists of keeping Pakistan in a permanent state of tension with India to justify the Army’s iron grip on state power.


One cannot ignore the wider geopolitical context as well. Is this farce enabled by Islamabad’s foreign patrons? China and the United States have long preferred pliant, military-led regimes in Pakistan that will protect their interests.


India, for its part, must remain vigilant. Munir is likely to seek another crisis to rally support and distract from his domestic failures. Pakistan’s real crisis is internal - a decaying economy, fractious politics and a military elite playing empire as the state crumbles. Munir may wear the Field Marshal’s baton. But he commands neither respect nor victory, only insecurity. And in Pakistan, that is a dangerous thing indeed.

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