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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Unveiling Smuggling Networks with Forensics

Updated: Mar 20, 2025

Innovations in forensic science now enable rapid, high-precision detection of trace-level narcotics in complex samples.

Smuggling Networks with Forensics

Forensic narcotics analysis is a specialised branch of forensic science that deals with the identification of illegal drugs and their derivatives. This field plays a crucial role in detecting, and analysing drugs, helping law enforcement and forensic experts identify illicit substances quickly and accurately. These tools can even identify trace amounts of drugs in samples such as blood, urine, hair, and environmental surfaces, providing reliable results in both laboratories and field operations.


The roots of forensic narcotic analysis date back to “The William Palmer Case” of England, where chemical analysis was used to detect toxic substances in the poisoning investigation. Later, the Hague Opium Convention in 1912 led to the routine use of forensic narcotics analysis in the illegal drug trade. In India, forensic narcotics analysis became prominent in the mid-20th century, with the establishment of forensic science laboratories and increasing concerns about illegal drug trafficking.


India faces significant challenges from two major drug-producing regions: the Golden Crescent, which includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, and the Golden Triangle, including Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand. Heroin from the Golden Crescent affects states like Punjab, while drugs from the Golden Triangle affect northeastern states such as Manipur and Mizoram. This dual threat continues to disrupt families and communities, emphasising the need for countermeasures.


Several notable cases have employed these tools in detecting and seizing narcotic drugs. In 2021, the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence seized 3000 kg of cocaine worth ₹21,000 crore at Mundra Port, Gujarat. Advanced container scanners revealed cocaine hidden in a shipment labelled as ‘talcum powder’. These scanners can analyse dense, irregular items of shipments, enabling the detection of hidden drugs. Similarly, detection dogs have displayed their value in drug enforcement. At Bengaluru Airport in 2018, a trained sniffer dog identified a consignment of hashish hidden in gift items destined for Dubai.


Another major drug detection tool includes the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) testing kits, which are portable and allow on-the-spot colour-changing chemical testing of narcotic substances. The customs officials seized 50 kg of heroin hidden in a truck carrying agricultural produce using these kits at the Wagah Border in 2021. This immediate identification facilitates further investigation into cross-border smuggling networks.


Modern forensic tools are increasingly integrated with mobile applications, allowing for seamless data collection, analysis, and sharing. This integration facilitates real-time decision-making and enhances the efficiency of forensic investigations. For example, NIRLAB's ultra-portable near-infrared detector connects to a mobile app, enabling instant analysis and visualisation of results.


The Supreme Court has emphasised the pivotal role of forensic tools in enhancing the effectiveness of narcotic drug investigations and has recognised the results of such tests as scientific evidence. In the 2013 case of Thana Singh vs. Central Bureau of Narcotics, the Supreme Court acknowledged that timely chemical analysis of seized substances is essential for the effective prosecution of drug-related offences. It also recommended establishing more forensic labs and appointing qualified experts for prompt analysis. Experts like Dr. Rajesh Sharma, a leading narcotics specialist, use chemistry to trace drug origins and lift fingerprints from packages to track down and expose entire smuggling networks. They provide evidence needed to prosecute traffickers and shut down operations.


The Centre of Excellence at NFSU uses advanced tools to identify and quantify narcotic substances. They also develop portable testing kits that allow law enforcement agencies to conduct on-the-spot analysis during raids and seizures. Its contributions integrate forensic science into modern law enforcement strategies.


These advancements are transforming forensic narcotic detection in India by providing more efficient, accurate, and safer methods for identifying substances, thereby strengthening the efforts of law enforcement agencies.


(Dr. Kumar is a retired IPS officer and forensic consultant to the Assam Government. Bhowmickis a research associate in criminology.)

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