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By:

Rajendra Joshi

3 December 2024 at 9:20:26 am

The ‘sweet’ scam behind the sugar price surge

AI generated image Kolhapur: A sugar shortage can push up prices. But what happens when prices rise sharply despite the country having enough sugar in its warehouses? That is the uncomfortable question emerging from the sugar market’s July-August price surge. There was no evidence of an outright shortage when the new sugar season approached. Government estimates indicated that the country would have around 43 lakh metric tonnes of carry-forward stock. The Centre, relying on this broad...

The ‘sweet’ scam behind the sugar price surge

AI generated image Kolhapur: A sugar shortage can push up prices. But what happens when prices rise sharply despite the country having enough sugar in its warehouses? That is the uncomfortable question emerging from the sugar market’s July-August price surge. There was no evidence of an outright shortage when the new sugar season approached. Government estimates indicated that the country would have around 43 lakh metric tonnes of carry-forward stock. The Centre, relying on this broad availability, permitted exports of 20 lakh tonnes. And yet, the market behaved as though sugar had suddenly become scarce. At the beginning of July, tender prices were around Rs 3,800 a quintal. By the latter half of the month, prices began climbing rapidly. In the retail market, sugar prices that were around Rs 45 a kg reportedly touched Rs 78. The government responded with stock limits and permission for duty-free imports of 10 lakh tonnes. But these interventions address the symptoms. They do not answer the more fundamental question: what caused the price spike in the first place? The first clue could lie in the lifting quota. The quantity of sugar released into the market in July was lower than expected. By itself, a lower monthly quota need not create a crisis when overall stocks are comfortable. But markets are driven not only by physical availability; they are also driven by expectations. A smaller release can create the perception of scarcity. Once that perception takes hold, stock-holding can become more profitable. The initial spark need not be large if the market has enough speculative fuel. This is why the July episode deserves a forensic examination. The timing is particularly significant. July marked the transition from Ashadh to Shravan, when the festive calendar begins and sugar consumption traditionally strengthens. At such a time, the normal expectation would be that adequate stocks are released into the market to prevent abnormal price escalation. Instead, prices moved sharply upwards. Was this coincidence, a genuine mismatch between demand and supply, or something more? The GST system offers an unusually powerful investigative tool. Every registered transaction leaves a digital footprint. A sugar mill selling to a registered trader generates an invoice recording the quantity, value, date and buyer. The trader’s subsequent sale generates another transaction. GST returns and e-invoices can therefore help create a chain showing who purchased sugar, at what price, when it was invoiced and when it was subsequently sold. This information can be matched with physical stock registers, dispatch records and warehouse inventories. The key question should be simple: Did the sugar that was shown as sold actually enter the market? Suppose a trader purchased substantial quantities in July when prices were relatively low, but the commodity remained physically stored at or near the mill. If the stock was released only after prices rose substantially in August, investigators would have a legitimate reason to examine the transaction more closely. That alone would not prove hoarding or cartelisation. A commercial decision to hold inventory is not illegal merely because prices subsequently rise. Large purchases before a price surge. Delayed physical movement. Repeated transactions among related entities. Unusually high margins. Sudden releases when prices peak. These are precisely the patterns that a data-led investigation can identify.

US Vice President JD Vance, his family arrive in Delhi

  • PTI
  • Apr 21, 2025
  • 2 min read


NEW DELHI: US Vice President J D Vance arrived here on Monday on a four-day visit to India against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between the two strategic partners to address a variety of issues, including tariff and market access.


Vance is accompanied by his Indian-origin wife Usha Chilukuri and their three children Ewan, Vivek, Mirabel and a delegation of senior US government officials.


The US Vice President and the Second Lady were received at the Palam air base by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw.


The American leader was also accorded a ceremonial welcome on his arrival.

In the evening, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host a dinner for the Vances after holding wide-ranging talks with the US Vice President.


External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, NSA Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Indian ambassador to US Vinay Mohan Kwatra are expected to be part of the Indian team to be led by PM Modi at the talks.


The focus of the meeting is likely to be on early finalisation of the proposed bilateral trade pact as well as ways to boost overall trajectory of ties between the two countries.


Besides Delhi, Vance and his family will travel to Jaipur and Agra.

Vance's first visit to India comes weeks after US President Donald Trump imposed and then paused a sweeping tariff regime against around 60 countries, including India.


New Delhi and Washington are now holding negotiations to seal a bilateral trade agreement that is expected to address a variety of issues, including tariff and market access.


Vance and his family are scheduled to leave for Jaipur on Monday night.

In Delhi, the US Vice President and his family are staying at the ITC Maurya Sheraton hotel.


On April 22, the Vances will visit a number of historical sites in Jaipur, including the Amer Fort, also known as Amber Fort. The fort is a UNESCO world heritage site.


In the afternoon, the US Vice President is scheduled to address a gathering at the Rajasthan International Centre in Jaipur.


Vance is expected to delved into broader aspects of India-US relations under the Donald Trump administration during his speech that is expected to be attended by diplomats, foreign policy experts, Indian government officials and academia.


The US Vice President and his family will travel to Agra on the morning of April 23, people familiar with the matter said.


In Agra, they will visit the Taj Mahal and Shilpgram which is an open air emporium showcasing various Indian artefacts, they said.


After concluding their visit to Agra, the Vances will return to Jaipur on the second half of April 23.


The US Vice President and his family will depart for the US from Jaipur on April 24, according to the people cited above.

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