top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

US Vice President JD Vance, his family arrive in Delhi

  • PTI
  • Apr 21, 2025
  • 2 min read


NEW DELHI: US Vice President J D Vance arrived here on Monday on a four-day visit to India against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between the two strategic partners to address a variety of issues, including tariff and market access.


Vance is accompanied by his Indian-origin wife Usha Chilukuri and their three children Ewan, Vivek, Mirabel and a delegation of senior US government officials.


The US Vice President and the Second Lady were received at the Palam air base by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw.


The American leader was also accorded a ceremonial welcome on his arrival.

In the evening, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host a dinner for the Vances after holding wide-ranging talks with the US Vice President.


External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, NSA Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Indian ambassador to US Vinay Mohan Kwatra are expected to be part of the Indian team to be led by PM Modi at the talks.


The focus of the meeting is likely to be on early finalisation of the proposed bilateral trade pact as well as ways to boost overall trajectory of ties between the two countries.


Besides Delhi, Vance and his family will travel to Jaipur and Agra.

Vance's first visit to India comes weeks after US President Donald Trump imposed and then paused a sweeping tariff regime against around 60 countries, including India.


New Delhi and Washington are now holding negotiations to seal a bilateral trade agreement that is expected to address a variety of issues, including tariff and market access.


Vance and his family are scheduled to leave for Jaipur on Monday night.

In Delhi, the US Vice President and his family are staying at the ITC Maurya Sheraton hotel.


On April 22, the Vances will visit a number of historical sites in Jaipur, including the Amer Fort, also known as Amber Fort. The fort is a UNESCO world heritage site.


In the afternoon, the US Vice President is scheduled to address a gathering at the Rajasthan International Centre in Jaipur.


Vance is expected to delved into broader aspects of India-US relations under the Donald Trump administration during his speech that is expected to be attended by diplomats, foreign policy experts, Indian government officials and academia.


The US Vice President and his family will travel to Agra on the morning of April 23, people familiar with the matter said.


In Agra, they will visit the Taj Mahal and Shilpgram which is an open air emporium showcasing various Indian artefacts, they said.


After concluding their visit to Agra, the Vances will return to Jaipur on the second half of April 23.


The US Vice President and his family will depart for the US from Jaipur on April 24, according to the people cited above.

Comments

bottom of page