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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Vote Splitters or Game-Changers?

Humayun Kabir
Humayun Kabir

India’s political landscape is once again getting crowded with new party banners, ambitious launches, and familiar claims of “alternatives.” In just the last fortnight, three new political outfits have emerged across three states. In West Bengal, Humayun Kabir has floated the Janata Unnayan Party; in Odisha, former Congress MLA Mohammed Moquim has unveiled a party to be formally launched on January 12, National Youth Day; and in Telangana, K. Kavitha, recently expelled from the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), has declared her intention to chart an independent political course.


While the circumstances behind these moves differ, they collectively raise familiar questions: What inspires the formation of new parties? Can they alter political equations meaningfully? Do they represent genuine alternatives or merely fragments born of personal conflict? Past experience suggests that while new parties are often launched with optimism, only a handful have left a lasting imprint.


Opportunistic Splinters

West Bengal offers the most immediate test. Assembly elections are scheduled for April–May, and Kabir’s Janata Unnayan Party will face its first electoral trial. Kabir was elected in 2021 as a Trinamool Congress (TMC) candidate but now challenges the same party. He has claimed his party will contest 182 constituencies and win at least 100 seats. He accuses Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of appeasing Hindus and abandoning secularism. Yet, Kabir himself appears to pursue Muslim vote bank–centric politics, focusing on 43 Muslim-majority constituencies in Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur.


Whether such a strategy, centred on emotional and religious mobilisation while side lining socio-economic concerns, can seriously challenge the TMC remains doubtful. Even alliances with AIMIM or the Indian Secular Front (ISF) offer no guarantee. AIMIM’s recent Bihar success was largely confined to Seemanchal, showing its pan-India appeal is limited. Similarly, ISF’s only achievement to date is its single seat in the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections. In this context, alliances with these parties may prove a cropper.


Mohammed Moquim in Odisha faces a different challenge. On December 8, he wrote to Sonia Gandhi, citing Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s age as a hindrance, questioning Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, and suggesting Priyanka Gandhi should lead the party. A week later, Moquim was expelled. Against the backdrop of a weakened Congress, a BJD-dominated state, and an expanding BJP, Moquim’s immediate challenge is organisational survival. Even if he positions his party regionally, it may end up benefiting the BJP by dividing anti-BJP votes rather than emerging as a credible alternative.


Telangana presents a more complicated picture. K. Kavitha’s break with the BRS follows her arrest in the Delhi liquor policy case and her time in Tihar Jail. After her release in August 2024, she has consistently targeted her party for corruption and called its organisation “a joke.” She was expelled by her father and BRS leader, K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), and resigned as a Legislative Council member, with her resignation recently accepted. Kavitha has announced that her Telangana Jagruthi Samiti will be transformed into a full-fledged political party, opening its office close to the BRS headquarters, signalling her immediate target. Given BRS’s declining electoral performance, Kavitha may attract some discontented leaders. However, this alone does not solve the larger challenge of building a credible, sustainable alternative.


Born From Breakups

A common thread runs through these cases. Kabir, Moquim, and Kavitha launched new parties after being expelled. Personal grievance and the urge to settle scores appear to be strong motivations. Successful new parties in India rest on clear ideology, new social coalitions, or distinct policy visions. The rise of Dravidian parties, the Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) stunning first-election victory in Andhra Pradesh, and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) breakthrough in giving Dalits representation in UP—a state long dominated by Yadav-OBC hegemony—illustrate how parties succeed when they build a strong foundation and challenge entrenched power structures. By contrast, parties formed merely as alternatives or around individual charisma often collapse.


Indian political history is full of such examples. Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party merged with Congress after an initial flourish. In Karnataka, the Karnataka Janata Paksha, floated by B. S. Yediyurappa, failed to establish itself and was dissolved. The post-Emergency Janata Party, which once promised to unite anti-Congress forces, collapsed due to factionalism. Even high-profile experiments like Prashant Kishore’s Bihar venture ended in humiliation.


In India’s already crowded political arena, a party that lacks a fundamentally fresh approach risks being little more than a vote-splitting distraction, often benefiting the ruling party. Even when they survive an initial defeat, momentum and mobilisation weaken, making sustained relevance difficult. The critical question is whether these formations will remain mere vote-splitters or emerge as game-changers. History shows they seldom do.


(The writer is a political commentator. Views personal.)

 

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