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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

What’s in a Name?

Updated: Feb 18, 2025

From nameless masters to larger than life personas, the artist has become as recognizable as the art.


What’s in a Name
Édouard Manet, Flowers in a Crystal Vase, circa 1882

Through most of human history, artists have been anonymous, their individuality either irrelevant or subservient to their adherence to subject matter and mastery of technique. There is an entire group of important art from the Middle Ages and the Renaissance attributed by art historians to Anonymous Masters. A debate continues to rage over whether Salvator Mundi - the most expensive ($450m) artwork ever sold, is painted by “the hand of” Leonardo da Vinci or one of his students. Nobody knows the names of the many who painted manuscripts and folios in Bengal in the 19th or even the early 20th century. So one might be tempted to ask, what’s in a name?

Pierre Auguste-Renoir, Bouquet of Roses, oil on canvas, circa 1909-1913
Pierre Auguste-Renoir, Bouquet of Roses, oil on canvas, circa 1909-1913

The anonymous artist of yore has given way to the very individual, modern artist known and recognized not just for his own distinct art, but often also for their outsize personalities and eccentricities. Andy Warhol not just for his Campbell’s Soup Cans but also for his parties in Studio 54. M.F. Husain for his murals but also for his preference to tread upon this earth barefoot. Freed from being answerable to anyone but himself once the age of patronage diminished, the artist could explore whatever interested him, be it a political ideology or a little flower. He could be an innovator who found new ways of seeing, an activist, a navel-gazer, or all of the above as freely and loudly as he chose. No matter what their solitary endeavours, artists began to be perceived in popular culture as rebels and mavericks who stood against the establishment, flamboyantly defied convention, and were often as outspoken as their art. And yes, the capital A – Artist, through much of history has been male. Women have only recently become a relevant part of the conversation about art – but that is material for a future article.


The identity of the named artist now becomes inextricable from the art he creates. People go to see a Vermeer or a Picasso, often unconcerned with which painting they are seeing, as long as it is painted by the master. F.N. Souza’s grotesque heads and V.S. Gaitonde’s enigmatic colourscapes have nothing in common though both artists belong to the same generation, share the J.J. School of Art as an alma mater, and were friends. The subject matter and style of their artistic output is a reflection of their almost diametrically opposed personalities and world views. But neither does being thematically linked mean the resultant art is similar. Thota Vaikuntam and B. Prabha, two artists whose oeuvres consist almost exclusively of women in traditional wear, would never be mistaken one for the other, each being so specifically rooted to the cultural ethos of their respective states. But let us stick with the floral realm, since Juliet paused on the balcony to muse that a rose by any other name would smell just as sweet. Even a fleeting glance would suggest that flowers painted by Édouard Manet are likely to have a completely different fragrance than those painted by Renoir. Flowers picked from a Suhasini Kejriwal garden would not sit comfortably with those filling vases painted by K.H. Ara. And Georgia O’Keefe’s flowers evoke a whole lot more than scent.


With due apologies to Shakespeare as well as Gertrude Stein’s proposition that things are what they are, a rose is not a rose is not a rose. Van Gogh’s sunflowers are interchangeable with no other. So, what’s in a name? Everything, because the artist puts everything of themselves – their skills and mastery of medium of course, but also their thoughts and ideas and their very sense of self – into their work to make it essentially distinct and uniquely theirs. They are not painting the flowers as they are, but as they see them. That is how each flower becomes more than just a rose or a sunflower. The artist claims ownership of the object or subject through every choice they make with their mind and body through the process of their re-creation of it. That means each work is singular, none is replicable.


Or is it? Japanese artist Takashi Murakami’s flower paintings are painted by numerous studio assistants, overseen by him. They are acquired by collectors as authentic Murakami works in spite of the public knowledge they have not in fact been painted “by the hand of” the artist. Louis Vuitton has a collaboration with Murakami for flower imprinted luggage. Easily identifiable at baggage claim, but few would know the flowers are the trademarked work of a renowned artist. They are easy subjects for cheaper knockoffs. Perhaps we are returning full circle to a variation on the age of the anonymous artist in a time of mass production.


(Meera is an architect, author, editor, and artist. Her column meanders through the vibrant world of art, examining exhibitions, offering critiques, delving into theory and exploring everything in between and beyond.)

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