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By:

Prasad Dixit

11 October 2024 at 1:09:23 am

The Human Advantage in an Artificial Age

As artificial intelligence grows smarter and more efficient, the real battle may not be about machines surpassing humanity but about whether humans squander the qualities that still set them apart. With the recent news of a Chinese robot beating the human record in a half- marathon, there is renewed debate on how AI could outsmart human beings. Many experts see it as yet another proof of impending disaster as AI takes over most of the jobs in the years to come. This is not the first time when...

The Human Advantage in an Artificial Age

As artificial intelligence grows smarter and more efficient, the real battle may not be about machines surpassing humanity but about whether humans squander the qualities that still set them apart. With the recent news of a Chinese robot beating the human record in a half- marathon, there is renewed debate on how AI could outsmart human beings. Many experts see it as yet another proof of impending disaster as AI takes over most of the jobs in the years to come. This is not the first time when human civilization is facing a technological revolution that has the potential to impact society and economy in a profound manner. There is, however, a crucial difference with AI driven revolution that is often missed out. The first industrial revolution happened because steam engines were invented and it led to mechanization of production. It was followed by discovery of electrical energy and technologies to harness it for mass production. Next wave of evolution was led by computerization and automation in practically all the fields covering both offices and industrial shop floors through mainframes, personal computers, and programmable logic controllers. While all these leaps in technologies are very different in terms of the specific underlying inventions, they all have one thing in common. They were all invented to do things that were humanly impossible to do. One steam engine or electric motor could do the work that perhaps hundreds of humans would never be able to accomplish even with their collective muscle power. Automation of the manufacturing assembly line would deliver speed and accuracy that human beings would never be able to achieve. Beyond Human Technological advances in Telecommunication, for that matter, have simply expanded the range of 'hearing' and 'seeing' far beyond what human vocal chords, ears, and eyes could manage to do on their own. Computers, at its core, are essentially doing the math and calculations at a speed and accuracy that the human brain can never achieve. To add to that, machines using all these innovations in technology would work tirelessly without any fatigue for a duration that human beings would never be able to match. Although AI is yet another highly potent technological innovation, it is not as straightforward as the previous ones. It can absorb and synthesize huge amounts of data that the human brain perhaps cannot do. Ability of AI to answer any question reasonably well using all the global knowledge made available to it, summarize enormous amount of data and text quickly, quickly draw a complex picture based on instructions given verbally, predict a trend, recognize and highlight a specific face in a fraction of a second from millions of faces, write code based on simple English instructions, are all examples where the speed and accuracy of underlying computation is delivering what human being cannot match. However, there are several areas where human beings are trying to improve AI so that it can, some day, match or exceed capability that human beings themselves already have. Examples of this include the ability of AI to completely replace a human driver safely in all situations, understand full context or an intent behind a statement, carry out complex and well-coordinated mechanical activity in response to various unpredictable situations, react appropriately by correctly assessing the emotions at play, integrate generated code appropriately in the existing larger systems landscape, and so on. In such cases, AI is not exhibiting any capability that is humanly impossible to match. On the contrary, AI is trying to catch up with what humans can do easily. In other words, in these areas, AI is trying to become what humans already are. This very aspect separates AI driven technology revolution from all the previous ones. Direct Competition It is often said that AI and humans will co-exist in the future, and people will need to change their ways of working. It is obvious that AI is also going to directly compete with humans in many sectors. Equipment with an embedded chip on-board do compete with humans even today. A case in point is household equipment such as ‘intelligent’ washing machines and dish-washers where robots to do vacuum cleaning and floor mopping do compete with humans offering these services. A human household help can perform these activities far better than what a machine can do. However, given an affordable choice, an increasing number of households prefer machines over human maid services for a reason. Human household help may not always be punctual, sincere, honest, and reliable. But machines are. Uncontrolled emotions, anger, frustration, laziness, indiscipline, absenteeism do affect humans - but not AI driven machines (at least till the time AI itself acquires emotions of its own, and becomes self-aware some day). This aspect of comparison between AI and humans is likely to become far more prominent and consequential as AI driven machines and robots become more and more intelligent and thereby start competing far more effectively with human capability in many spheres. Competition is said to bring about improvement. Just as AI improves itself through continuous learning to mimic human behaviour and actions, human workforce also needs to improve itself by avoiding behavioural issues and inefficiencies referred to above. Otherwise, humans would lose the natural advantage that they still enjoy over AI, and which is likely to continue even in the foreseeable future. Employers or consumers in the labour-intensive service sector will accept AI driven machines and robots with all its known limitations if it turns out to be a better net-net deal in comparison to services offered by humans. This specific aspect has tremendous significance for India. Many Countries from the developed world do not have a young population with reasonably good IQ in required numbers. India, on the other hand, has it in abundance. One could compare it with abundant availability of Thorium or Sunlight in India as compared to the Western world. Consequently, unlike many Countries in the world that have a Uranium centric approach towards nuclear energy, India's approach needs to be centered around Thorium. India's strategy related to renewable, non-conventional, green energy needs to be based on solar power. Indian Context Strategies for adopting AI in the Indian context need to be similarly tailored for the Indian context. India needs to adopt AI in the areas where it clearly has an advantage over humans in terms of speed, throughput, ease of use, accuracy, and efficiency. However, the use of AI needs to be judiciously controlled in areas where AI is trying to catch up with the capabilities of the human mind and body. Several labour-intensive services such as drivers, caregivers for the elderly people, parcel delivery, security guards, maintenance and repair of various equipment, are all examples in that category. Educational policies and overall work culture in the Country needs to appreciate this reality. Just as AI experts are trying hard to 'teach' AI algorithms and improve them through supervised learning, another set of experts need to sensitize and teach humans on how to understand, appreciate, preserve, and further hone the significant natural advantage that they already have over AI. Despite all the technological breakthroughs in AI, in many areas, still, it is a battle that humans will lose only if they choose to. (The writer works in the Information Technology sector. Views personal.)

What to Expect in 2025: Challenges and Opportunities

Updated: Jan 6, 2025

Donald Trump

The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in January is expected to dominate the global narrative in 2025. His second term will likely see a revival of the “America First” agenda, marked by economic nationalism, renewed trade wars, and a more transactional approach to alliances. Analysts predict that Trump’s instincts will drive U.S. foreign policy.


The tensions between the USA and China are expected to increase as Trump’s unpredictable leadership style could lead to unexpected overtures. There are already news reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping has declined Trump’s invitation to attend his inauguration.


Meanwhile, Trump’s expected focus on resolving the Russia-Ukraine War could also upset some of his NATO allies, especially if perceived concessions favour Russia. Domestically, Trump’s plans for sweeping bureaucratic changes may paralyse U.S. governance, creating a power vacuum that adversaries could exploit.


Asia-Pacific: A Region on Edge

Across Asia-Pacific, governments are likely to face political and economic hurdles as they navigate a complex geopolitical environment.


China is expected to focus on stabilising its economy, with aggressive policies targeting the real estate sector and local government debt. Concurrently, Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea could heighten regional tensions. Its outreach to Latin America and strategic moves in Southeast Asia signal China’s ambitions to expand its global influence.


In Japan, political instability under Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru could complicate relations with Washington, particularly as Trump revisits cost-sharing agreements for U.S. military bases. Japan’s domestic challenges will test its resilience in the face of external pressures.


South Korea enters the year in political limbo following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. With snap elections on the horizon, the nation must adapt to shifting U.S. policies that could disrupt defence and economic ties.


Southeast Asia: Conflict and Reforms

The ongoing civil war in Myanmar will likely intensify as resistance groups gain ground against the military junta. China’s mediation efforts may shape the conflict’s outcome, though achieving a lasting peace remains uncertain. Given the risk of instability and violence in states like Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland, India must keep a close eye on the developments in Myanmar.


In Vietnam, the new leadership under To Lam has pledged sweeping reforms aimed at boosting efficiency and economic growth. The success of these initiatives will be closely watched as the nation balances domestic priorities with rising geopolitical tensions.


Thailand is expected to progress in its economic recovery, driven by government initiatives targeting household debt and consumer spending. However, persistent political instability could derail its momentum.


The Pacific and Oceania: A Contest for Influence

The Pacific region is set to remain a focal point of US-China rivalry. Taiwan will likely continue to be a flashpoint, with both superpowers vying for influence in the region. Trump’s administration may double down on security initiatives while Beijing strengthens its economic and diplomatic ties with Pacific nations.


In Australia, anticipated elections could bring new leadership, potentially reshaping its approach to Pacific relations. Smaller Pacific nations will face increasing pressure to navigate the competing interests of Beijing and Washington as the region becomes a key battleground in the global geopolitical contest.


Europe and Russia: Fragile Alliances

The Russia-Ukraine War will remain a critical concern, with the Trump administration likely attempting to broker a settlement. Such efforts could strain European relations, especially if they are perceived as undermining NATO’s collective security.


In Central Asia, Russia’s influence over regional governments will persist, even as public discontent grows. The region’s reliance on Moscow for security and economic support will be tested as new dynamics emerge.


Middle East and North Africa: Conflict and Continuity

The Middle East will very likely continue to experience instability, with the Israel-Hamas conflict and broader regional tensions dominating headlines. Governments in the region will need to recalibrate their strategies to align with anticipated shifts in U.S. foreign policy under Trump.


Economic and Security Challenges

Economic recovery will be a top priority for many nations as they confront structural weaknesses exposed by the pandemic. China’s reforms, Thailand’s recovery measures, and Pakistan’s fiscal stabilisation efforts underscore the global need for resilience and adaptation.


Security hotspots, from the South China Sea to the Russia-Ukraine War, will demand careful diplomacy. Meanwhile, militant activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan could pose renewed threats to regional stability. India should also keep a close watch on this conflict, as it also has the potential to destabilise J&K once again.


Conclusion: A Pivotal Year Ahead

As 2025 unfolds, the world faces recurring challenges and new uncertainties. Political turbulence, economic fragility, and geopolitical competition will test nations and leaders. Despite challenges, the year also offers opportunities for collaboration and new approaches to problem-solving. How nations address these issues will play a key role in shaping the global landscape in the months ahead.


(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

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