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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Why Are We Demanding Redesigning of TBTT?

Thousands of residents of Mulla Baug area in Thane are united in demanding that the Thane Borivali Twin Tunnel (TBTT) should be extended close to now defunct Uni Abex company towards Ghodbunder Road. In present design, the TBTT ends before Satya Shankar Housing Society causing difficulties to all the nearby residential complexes. The residents huddled in a brain storming session on Saturday with the officials of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) appraising them of their pragmatic difficulties and the possible dangers they are going to face in the near future.


The residents had to raise their voice since the beginning when the TBTT, the brain child of then Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, started taking physical shape in 2024. The residents, mostly office goers, realised that the tunnel’s location was shifted from Tiku Ji Ni Wadi, a private amusement park, to their otherwise peaceful and lush green area to benefit someone. Then came the next shock. A toll plaza was proposed right outside a residential complex Neelkanth greens  blocking movements of the law-abiding tax payer residents. The residents of nearby housing complexes namely Neelkanth Woods, Neelkanth Greens, Cosmos Longue and Satya Shankar Residency would have been directly affected if this toll plaza came outside Neelkanth Greens.


This was the moment when the residents joined hands to raise their voice against the ‘injustice’ in designing and planning of the TBTT. They got the first success when the MMRDA agreed not to erect the toll plaza outside Neelkanth Greens. However, to the residents’ surprise the tunnel and the toll plaza has been shifted just 500 meters ahead to another residential complexes Cosmos Lounge and Satya Shankar Residency.


We, the residents, are demanding that the tunnel and the toll plaza should be moved further 300 meters  close to a defunct company called as Uni Abex, where no residential complex situates. There is an ample of space available for toll plaza which will not harm any housing society and the road will also remain intact.


We are the Project Affected People (PAP). We have formed a representatives committee comprising members from all complexes. We are trying to attract the attention of the MMRDA and the state government to our legitimate demands.


We are going to face a huge difficulty on the front of pollution and vehicular traffic in our peaceful area when the tunneling work begins hopefully after the monsoon. We are going to sacrifice the peace for a project of national importance. That does not mean the authorities should neglect our genuine demands.


There is no traffic police employed in this area causing chaos. Dust suppression system is not activated. Roads are not cleaned of the dust. If the situation is not improved the muddy roads may cause accidents especially for the two wheelers. The Contractor Megha Engineering Pvt. Ltd. (MEPL) has to take extra efforts as this project location is thickly populated.


We understand from the media reports that there is a wide road proposed right through our housing complexes that will connect Mulla Baug to Patlipada near the TBTT’s starting point. This will make this area the busiest junction for the vehicular traffic in Thane.


We are the peace-loving and responsible citizens. The government should not overlook our demands in the election season. Any adverse impact on the residents’ health and life would be detrimental for the prospects of the political parties as well.


(The author is a resident of Mulla Baug, Thane.)

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