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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Why is Feeding Seagulls Hazardous?

Updated: Mar 3, 2025

Seagulls

The recent picture of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in which he can be seen feeding gulls before attending the closing ceremony of Maha Kumbh 2025 in Prayagraj paves way for a brainstorming on what is good and what is bad for the digestive systems of these migratory birds. While it is not clear in the picture whether what exactly is being fed to these gulls, it is worth digging deep through the much-discussed periodic debate over what is appropriate to feed them, and what is not.


What are seagulls?

Seagulls are migratory birds that fly long distances to save themselves from harsh weather and also in search of fish for food. Specifically, Siberian seagulls come to Indian coastline between October to March and are seen in abundance from North to South. In fact, Mumbai's marine drive is the most sought-after spot for walkers who try to get a glimpse of these birds. Morning Walkers enthusiastically click pictures and feed them farsan and gathia. This has been a tradition for years together, and despite repeated awareness drives, people are still feeding packet food to these birds. Experts believe that packet food is extremely hazardous to Seagulls, or the food that we humans consume may or may not suitable for their health.


Is there a law prohibiting this in India?

Media reports highlight that in 2018 BNHS had requested the Maharashtra state environment department to ban the feeding of migratory birds in Mumbai and adjoining areas. An elderly morning walker Varsha Phadke spoke to the Perfect Voice highlighting, "Before lockdown or before the work on coastal road project began, there were officials formally deployed at marine drive to prohibit walkers from feeding these birds. But the efforts seem to be inconsistent as this season the practice has resumed with no concerned authority to officially object to feeding farsan to the birds. Apart from the health of the birds being deteriorated, the clean and picturesque marine drive is losing its charm as the gathia is left abandoned and the entire area is littered."


VJTI Engineer and retired BMC Official Mahesh Phadke told The Perfect Voice, "One of the obligatory duty of Municipal corporation is to protect the health of people through preventive measures. Accordingly, the caution signs are placed at various places to prevent people from health hazards due to pigeons. In spite of knowing the risk involved even educated people ignore the directions and continue to feed pigeons which endanger their own health. It is observed that, respiratory problems, lungs problems and asthma are proven hazards of feeding pigeons."


What PETA India says

"There is increased discussion and awareness against feeding wild animals with human food, but the situation becomes complex when we consider humans have cut down the animals’ natural forest homes forcing them into human areas. As natural habitats are turned into multistorey buildings and parking lots, pigeons like many animals, have been forced to adapt to their new surroundings. Just as we would show compassion to a hungry dog, so many do to a hungry pigeon. It would be ideal, however, to feed pigeons foods like greens, berries and fruits. Town planning must include forest protection. That is the key solution to issues involving wildlife."


What do Medical practitioners say?

Dr Sharad Ketkar (MBBS), GP from Kurla in Mumbai said, "Pigeons spread respiratory diseases. They have no utility value. In Singapore they kill pigeons as soon as they are spotted. Allergic asthama is on the rise because of pigeons".


Dr. Mandar Bapaye, Girgaon based Pediatrician said, "Pigeons are fed because of some religious beliefs. Health hazards are plenty. Both infectious and non-infectious lung diseases can affect both adults as well as children due to pigeons. From fungal infections to Fibrotic lung diseases, it also poses risk for those who has Asthma and Allergic Rhinitis. Ideally pigeons are built to hunt for their food but have lost their abilities due to easily available food. The pigeons over the years have become dominant bird species as far as the urban setting is concerned thus the gravity of causing illness is high."


The popular promenade of Marine Drive is littered with heaps of farsan every year between October and March. Yes, it spoils the entire experience of a healthy walk full of fresh air that defines the location. As far as the gut health of guls is concerned, there are mixed responses from the experts. The fact that farsan is still very regularly been fed to these birds despite these mixed reviews even in a city like Mumbai highlights the reality of extreme indiscipline and lack of respect for regulations and a complete indifference towards wellbeing of these migratory birds by the residents of this country and more so, of Mumbaikars.

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