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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 10:20:16 am

Fuel Shock

The latest increase in petrol and diesel prices — the fourth hike in just 11 days — underlines how vulnerable India remains to geopolitical turmoil and its own unfinished reforms in the energy sector. Brent crude surged again after fresh American military strikes in southern Iran deepened fears of the renewal of the Iran conflict on a higher scale. Markets are now gripped by uncertainty as hopes of a negotiated settlement continue to fade. For a country like India, which imports more than 80...

Fuel Shock

The latest increase in petrol and diesel prices — the fourth hike in just 11 days — underlines how vulnerable India remains to geopolitical turmoil and its own unfinished reforms in the energy sector. Brent crude surged again after fresh American military strikes in southern Iran deepened fears of the renewal of the Iran conflict on a higher scale. Markets are now gripped by uncertainty as hopes of a negotiated settlement continue to fade. For a country like India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements, every geopolitical tremor in the Gulf quickly translates into pain at the fuel pump. Since May 15, petrol and diesel prices have risen cumulatively by nearly Rs. 7.5 per litre. In Hyderabad and Thiruvananthapuram, petrol has crossed Rs. 115 a litre. Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Chennai are all witnessing sharp increases. Even Delhi, traditionally cushioned by relatively lower taxes, has seen petrol move beyond Rs. 102 per litre. This marks a significant shift after nearly four years of relative stability in retail fuel prices. For long periods, state-run oil marketing companies absorbed the burden of elevated crude prices, shrinking refining margins and a weakening rupee. Political considerations, particularly around elections, often delayed price revisions. The Rs. 2 per litre reduction announced ahead of the 2024 national elections was a reminder that fuel pricing in India has never been entirely divorced from politics. But oil companies cannot indefinitely absorb mounting losses, especially when global crude prices remain elevated. The Centre has already cut excise duties, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman estimating the revenue sacrifice at nearly Rs. 1 lakh crore. That fiscal cushion has now largely been exhausted. The spotlight is therefore shifting towards states. VAT on fuel remains one of the most lucrative revenue streams for state governments, with some states imposing levies exceeding 30 percent through taxes and cess components. This explains why states such as Telangana, Kerala and West Bengal continue to record some of the highest retail fuel prices in the country. The Centre is now subtly nudging states to reduce VAT rates to soften the blow on consumers. Yet states are reluctant. Their dependence on fuel taxes is structural, not incidental. Apart from excise on liquor, few revenue sources offer such steady and politically manageable returns. Bringing petrol and diesel under the GST framework continues to face bipartisan resistance from states fearful of losing fiscal autonomy. Rising fuel prices do not remain confined to petrol stations. They seep into every layer of the economy as transportation costs rise, food inflation accelerates and household budgets shrink. Small businesses, already coping with weak consumption and high borrowing costs, are facing renewed pressure. India’s recurring vulnerability to crude oil shocks exposes the limits of its energy security architecture. Expansion of strategic petroleum reserves and greater investment in renewable energy can no longer remain aspirational talking points. They must become urgent national priorities.

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Mamata is seeing a ghost of Bangladesh behind the massive outrage and waves of protest over rape and murder of the trainee doctor. And the reasons are many.

It’s been over a fortnight. Yet with each passing day the voice of protest is getting louder and stronger. From the streets of Kolkata it’s pouring into roads of hinterland. The cry for justice for a rape victim has consolidated into a wail of demands to set a lot of wrongdoings right. Here in lies the fear and trepidation. Wasn’t the issue that brought the youth of Bangladesh out on the thoroughfares a simple, innocent one of quota reform?

The chief minister of Bengal, known for understanding the pulse of people better than many, was quick to read the signages floating in the political horizon.

The most obvious reason for her to be tensed is that both the regime change in Bangladesh and the mass protest in Bengal, were student-driven to begin with. The two incidents---end of 15 year old Sheikh Hasina government and turbulence in West Bengal, over the heinous crime, falling back to back, the first on August 5th and the latter from August 9th onwards, give natural scope for comparisons. More so, because in both the cases the movement strayed beyond an affected constituency to include aggrieved people at large, cutting across socio-economic demography. If the quota reform protest started by students in Bangladesh became a mass uprising against an autocratic regime, the campaign demanding justice for the rape victim and overall safety and security of women in Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal soon snowballed into a movement of no-confidence against the government. Slogans--”Mamata must resign” also got floated in social media much in line with the call for ouster of Sheikh Hasina. In fact “Resignation of Hasina” became the single point agenda into which all other fringe demands coalesced.

Incidentally, even before people started drawing parallels, that there could be a thread of commonality in the way the upheaval in Bangladesh and Bengal played out, Mamata was quick to point out that the Opposition were trying to pull off a Bangladesh by politicizing the tragic incident: “A coordinated approach has been executed by the BJP and the CPIM with support from the Centre to defame Bengal and exploit the situation....They want to make a Bangladesh here. They are taking cues from student unrest in Bangladesh and are attempting to capture similarly. I have no longing for the chair. I came here to serve people.”

Not only Mamata, her political lieutenants are consistently equating the turmoil in Bengal with the mayhem in Bangladesh. Cabinet minister for North Bengal development Udayan Guha threatened to take stern action against those, who would be trying to exploit the situation by emulating a Bangladesh like movement. “ Even after the hospital was vandalised, the police did not open fire on anyone. The police will not allow a Bangladesh type situation. We will not allow Bengal to turn into Bangladesh, Guha thundered.

Is the government’s fear unfounded?

Apart from the similarities on ground zero, as to how and where the future course of events are heading to, there are ample reasons for Bengal to mull on-- as to what led to a Bangladesh like boiling point. To begin with, it’ll be appropriate to talk of Bangladesh and the prevailing situation, that made the students’ protest become big in magnitude. The students were out on the streets because of a high reservation in public jobs. Unemployment and stagnant job market in private sector coupled with a high rate of inflation drove the educated youth to rebel against the government.

But soon the students found enormous number of sympathisers, who were equally at the receiving end. According to Bangladesh citizens, the last two terms of the Sheikh Hasina government were a mockery of democracy. Even elections would be compromised. As Hasina grew from strength to strength, she politicized institutions. The rank and file of police owed allegiance to the ruling dispensation. Extortion, harrassment and raids by police and people in power became rampant. An atmosphere of fear and repression reigned and people got restless to overthrow the government.

Politicization of institutions has been happening in Mamata government too. Allegations are quite strong that police in Bengal functions at the beck and call of political bosses. The lapses and alleged loopholes on the part of police in handling the rape and murder of the young doctor have yet again revealed a sense of confused or misplaced loyalty.

But above everything else both Hasina and Mamata governments allegedly seem to have twined in accepting corruption as a way of life. In Bangladesh jobs of primary and secondary teachers got sold at premium, Rs 10-12 lakh in the Hasina regime. Even police had to pay up for prized postings and transfers. In Bengal busting of the teacher’s recruitment scam has revealed how unsuccessful and ineligible candidates got government jobs in schools in exchange of bribes.

Similarities are multiple and inescapable. Mamata has good reasons to be apprehensive. It’s not only she, who can see and connect the dots. People, out on the streets, clamoring for justice, can see a providential pattern somewhere in the unfolding of future events in these two places-- Bangladesh and Bengal. True, they share more than 2,217 odd km of border. They share the same umbilical cord, other than language, culture, ethos, icons. Even emotions are the same. So she cannot take any risk.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Kolkata. Views personal)

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