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By:

Commodore S.L. Deshmukh

31 October 2024 at 3:00:19 am

A Diplomatic Detour

The Japanese Prime Minister’s decision to skip Assam is a setback for the Northeast, but not for the larger India-Japan partnership. India and Japan share one of Asia’s most understated yet enduring partnerships. Long before the relationship acquired strategic significance, it rested on the quiet foundations of culture and civilisation. Buddhism travelled from the Indian subcontinent to Japan over many centuries, leaving an imprint that still shapes Japanese society. In the modern era, that...

A Diplomatic Detour

The Japanese Prime Minister’s decision to skip Assam is a setback for the Northeast, but not for the larger India-Japan partnership. India and Japan share one of Asia’s most understated yet enduring partnerships. Long before the relationship acquired strategic significance, it rested on the quiet foundations of culture and civilisation. Buddhism travelled from the Indian subcontinent to Japan over many centuries, leaving an imprint that still shapes Japanese society. In the modern era, that cultural affinity has been reinforced by expanding economic ties, institutional cooperation and an increasingly convergent strategic outlook. Strong Bonds The architecture of this relationship is extensive. Organisations such as the Indo-Japanese Association have nurtured cultural and intellectual exchanges since the 1950s, while the Indo-Japanese Economic Cooperation Council has promoted investment, technology transfer and commercial collaboration. Diplomatic forums on both sides have steadily deepened mutual trust, reflecting a shared commitment to peace, stability and prosperity across the Indo-Pacific. Security cooperation has become an equally important pillar. A turning point came in 2008, when India and Japan signed their Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Tokyo. Since then, bilateral ties have expanded to include regular “2+2” ministerial dialogues, defence exchanges, coast guard cooperation and joint military exercises. The Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, which entered into force in 2021, has further strengthened operational cooperation between the Indian armed forces and Japan’s Self-Defence Forces. Together with their collaboration through the Quad, these initiatives underscore how the two democracies increasingly view each other as indispensable strategic partners. The diplomatic warmth between the two countries, however, predates the present geopolitical moment. One of the earliest symbols of goodwill came in 1949, when Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru gifted an Indian elephant to Tokyo’s Ueno Zoo. At a time when Japan was struggling to recover from the devastation of the Second World War, the gesture carried emotional significance far beyond diplomacy. Three years later, India signed one of the first post-war peace treaties with Japan, formally establishing diplomatic relations on April 28, 1952. India’s exports of iron ore contributed to Japan's post-war industrial recovery, while Japan gradually emerged as one of India's most dependable development partners. Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi’s visit to India in 1957 marked another milestone, paving the way for decades of Japanese official development assistance. Today, that legacy is visible in projects ranging from metro rail systems to the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail corridor, one of the largest Japanese-backed infrastructure investments overseas. Against this backdrop, the decision by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to cancel the Guwahati leg of her July 2026 India visit has understandably generated disappointment, particularly in Assam. The annual India-Japan summit will now be held entirely in New Delhi. Official explanations have cited parliamentary commitments in Tokyo and scheduling constraints. Diplomacy often leaves little room for certainty, and itinerary changes are not uncommon. Yet symbolism matters in international relations, especially when a region is striving to position itself as a gateway to Southeast Asia. Past Incidents This is not without precedent. In 2019, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was forced to cancel his visit to Assam amid protests over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. That cancellation deprived the Northeast of an opportunity to showcase its growing strategic relevance within Japan’s vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. It also served as a reminder that domestic political turbulence can sometimes carry unintended diplomatic costs. The latest cancellation comes at an equally delicate moment. Assam has spent years projecting itself as an emerging investment destination. Improved law and order, expanding infrastructure and greater connectivity have encouraged the state government to court foreign investors with unusual vigour. Preparations for the Japanese delegation reflected those ambitions. Guwahati witnessed beautification drives, road improvements and hospitality planning. Japanese officials reportedly spent weeks assessing the local ecosystem, infrastructure and investment climate ahead of the proposed visit. The economic stakes were hardly insignificant. Prime Minister Takaichi was expected to be accompanied by executives from more than 50 Japanese companies and organisations, including Suzuki Motor. Discussions were expected to cover industrial investment, energy resilience initiatives and financing mechanisms that could support infrastructure development in India and Southeast Asia. For Assam, hosting such a delegation would have provided a valuable opportunity to present itself not merely as a peripheral state but as a strategic hub connecting India to East and Southeast Asia. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has understandably expressed disappointment while indicating that the state would seek greater clarity from the Ministry of External Affairs. Such restraint is prudent. More importantly, one cancelled visit should not be mistaken for a weakening of Japanese interest in the Northeast. Indeed, there are indications that a high-level Japanese business delegation may still visit Assam separately. If that materialises, much of the economic momentum generated by the preparations could yet be preserved. The larger trajectory of India-Japan relations remains firmly positive, driven by strategic necessity as much as by historical goodwill. Both countries seek resilient supply chains, diversified manufacturing, secure maritime routes and greater stability across the Indo-Pacific. These interests transcend the calendar of summit diplomacy. For India, however, the episode offers a useful lesson. The Northeast has acquired unprecedented geopolitical significance as New Delhi's gateway to ASEAN and as an integral component of the Act East policy. Maximising that potential requires not only infrastructure and connectivity but also careful diplomatic management and political stability. Foreign investment is ultimately attracted by predictability as much as by opportunity. While a cancelled visit may disappoint, but it need not derail a partnership built patiently over seven decades. If both New Delhi and Dispur draw the right lessons, the next Japanese delegation may arrive not merely as honoured guests but as long-term partners in the economic transformation of India’s Northeast. (The author is a retired naval aviation officer and a defence and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Mamata is seeing a ghost of Bangladesh behind the massive outrage and waves of protest over rape and murder of the trainee doctor. And the reasons are many.

It’s been over a fortnight. Yet with each passing day the voice of protest is getting louder and stronger. From the streets of Kolkata it’s pouring into roads of hinterland. The cry for justice for a rape victim has consolidated into a wail of demands to set a lot of wrongdoings right. Here in lies the fear and trepidation. Wasn’t the issue that brought the youth of Bangladesh out on the thoroughfares a simple, innocent one of quota reform?

The chief minister of Bengal, known for understanding the pulse of people better than many, was quick to read the signages floating in the political horizon.

The most obvious reason for her to be tensed is that both the regime change in Bangladesh and the mass protest in Bengal, were student-driven to begin with. The two incidents---end of 15 year old Sheikh Hasina government and turbulence in West Bengal, over the heinous crime, falling back to back, the first on August 5th and the latter from August 9th onwards, give natural scope for comparisons. More so, because in both the cases the movement strayed beyond an affected constituency to include aggrieved people at large, cutting across socio-economic demography. If the quota reform protest started by students in Bangladesh became a mass uprising against an autocratic regime, the campaign demanding justice for the rape victim and overall safety and security of women in Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal soon snowballed into a movement of no-confidence against the government. Slogans--”Mamata must resign” also got floated in social media much in line with the call for ouster of Sheikh Hasina. In fact “Resignation of Hasina” became the single point agenda into which all other fringe demands coalesced.

Incidentally, even before people started drawing parallels, that there could be a thread of commonality in the way the upheaval in Bangladesh and Bengal played out, Mamata was quick to point out that the Opposition were trying to pull off a Bangladesh by politicizing the tragic incident: “A coordinated approach has been executed by the BJP and the CPIM with support from the Centre to defame Bengal and exploit the situation....They want to make a Bangladesh here. They are taking cues from student unrest in Bangladesh and are attempting to capture similarly. I have no longing for the chair. I came here to serve people.”

Not only Mamata, her political lieutenants are consistently equating the turmoil in Bengal with the mayhem in Bangladesh. Cabinet minister for North Bengal development Udayan Guha threatened to take stern action against those, who would be trying to exploit the situation by emulating a Bangladesh like movement. “ Even after the hospital was vandalised, the police did not open fire on anyone. The police will not allow a Bangladesh type situation. We will not allow Bengal to turn into Bangladesh, Guha thundered.

Is the government’s fear unfounded?

Apart from the similarities on ground zero, as to how and where the future course of events are heading to, there are ample reasons for Bengal to mull on-- as to what led to a Bangladesh like boiling point. To begin with, it’ll be appropriate to talk of Bangladesh and the prevailing situation, that made the students’ protest become big in magnitude. The students were out on the streets because of a high reservation in public jobs. Unemployment and stagnant job market in private sector coupled with a high rate of inflation drove the educated youth to rebel against the government.

But soon the students found enormous number of sympathisers, who were equally at the receiving end. According to Bangladesh citizens, the last two terms of the Sheikh Hasina government were a mockery of democracy. Even elections would be compromised. As Hasina grew from strength to strength, she politicized institutions. The rank and file of police owed allegiance to the ruling dispensation. Extortion, harrassment and raids by police and people in power became rampant. An atmosphere of fear and repression reigned and people got restless to overthrow the government.

Politicization of institutions has been happening in Mamata government too. Allegations are quite strong that police in Bengal functions at the beck and call of political bosses. The lapses and alleged loopholes on the part of police in handling the rape and murder of the young doctor have yet again revealed a sense of confused or misplaced loyalty.

But above everything else both Hasina and Mamata governments allegedly seem to have twined in accepting corruption as a way of life. In Bangladesh jobs of primary and secondary teachers got sold at premium, Rs 10-12 lakh in the Hasina regime. Even police had to pay up for prized postings and transfers. In Bengal busting of the teacher’s recruitment scam has revealed how unsuccessful and ineligible candidates got government jobs in schools in exchange of bribes.

Similarities are multiple and inescapable. Mamata has good reasons to be apprehensive. It’s not only she, who can see and connect the dots. People, out on the streets, clamoring for justice, can see a providential pattern somewhere in the unfolding of future events in these two places-- Bangladesh and Bengal. True, they share more than 2,217 odd km of border. They share the same umbilical cord, other than language, culture, ethos, icons. Even emotions are the same. So she cannot take any risk.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Kolkata. Views personal)

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