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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Between illegal migration and the promise of development

New Delhi: Assam's 2026 election reflects a fierce contest over identity, illegal migration, and development, where youth sentiment, tribal rights, border anxieties, and welfare politics converge to redefine the state's-and Northeast India's-political future.   Over the past decade, Assam's politics has undergone a transformation of remarkable intensity. This shift is not merely a story of power struggles or the thrill of electoral victories and defeats; rather, it reflects a deeper internal...

Between illegal migration and the promise of development

New Delhi: Assam's 2026 election reflects a fierce contest over identity, illegal migration, and development, where youth sentiment, tribal rights, border anxieties, and welfare politics converge to redefine the state's-and Northeast India's-political future.   Over the past decade, Assam's politics has undergone a transformation of remarkable intensity. This shift is not merely a story of power struggles or the thrill of electoral victories and defeats; rather, it reflects a deeper internal conflict within the state, one caught at the intersection of identity, demography, land, and development. What emerges is a portrait of a society negotiating competing anxieties and aspirations, where political change mirrors a broader search for equilibrium. Congress seeks to craft a broader social coalition built around the "shared concerns" of tribal.   In the current electoral landscape, an unexpected emotional issue has also surfaced, the reported death of popular singer Jubin Garg. This development has triggered a strong reaction, particularly among young people. The surge of sentiment on social media, marked by calls for justice and visible public outrage, suggests that if this issue sustains its presence in the campaign discourse, it could significantly influence youth voting behavior.   Another crucial dimension of identity politics is the demand to grant Scheduled Tribe status to six indigenous communities. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had made this promise in the previous election, but it remains unfulfilled. The opposition has framed this as a case of electoral betrayal, while the BJP has cited administrative and constitutional complexities as the reason for the delay. The issue continues to carry both symbolic and electoral weight.   Political Narratives This election is not merely about the arithmetic of seats; it is equally about the reconfiguration of alliances and the reconstruction of political narratives. The Congress has distanced itself from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and formed a new platform, the "Assam Sonmilito Morcha," which includes regional players such as the Assam Jatiya Parishad. In the previous election, the alliance with AIUDF helped Congress consolidate Muslim votes, but it also enabled the BJP to polarize Hindu voters more effectively. This time, Congress appears to be attempting to move beyond that image, seeking to craft a broader social coalition built around the "shared concerns" of tribal, Assamese, and other communities.   On the other hand, the BJP's strategy also reflects notable recalibration. Its cautious approach to seat-sharing with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and its focused attention on 15 seats in the Bodoland Territorial Region illustrate this shift. In this region, the BJP has allied with the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), with BPF contesting 11 seats and the BJP 4. In the previous election, BPF had aligned with Congress; however, its resurgence in the Bodoland Territorial Council elections has altered the political equations. This shift is significant, as the Bodoland Territorial Region remains central to Assam's evolving geopolitical balance, making it a decisive arena in the state's new political calculus.   Central Issue In this election, the question of "illegal immigrants" has once again emerged as a central and polarising issue. In Assam, concerns around undocumented migration, particularly involving those alleged to have entered from Bangladesh, have long shaped political discourse. Recent statements by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma referring to "Miya Muslims," along with large-scale eviction drives targeting what the government describes as illegal encroachments, have further intensified the debate. The state claims to have cleared thousands of acres of government land, framing these actions as necessary for restoring law, order, and enabling development.   The opposition, however, views these measures through a different lens, arguing that they deepen social divisions and disproportionately target specific communities. At the same time, proponents within the state's ruling establishment contend that without addressing illegal land occupation and demographic imbalances, "balanced development" remains unattainable. This assertion is being challenged by the Congress and other opposition parties, who invoke constitutional protections and the need for social harmony.   The impact of eviction and "de-bonding" drives has been particularly visible in sensitive border belts, often referred to as the "Chicken Neck" villages. In these fragile frontier regions, communities such as small farmers, tea garden workers, and borderland populations find themselves in a state of uncertainty, grappling with questions of security and identity. Here, electoral politics is often caught between two competing narratives: resistance to illegal immigration and the urgent demand for local livelihoods.   Direct Inducement On the development front, the ruling BJP is foregrounding its governance record, with the Orunodoi (Arunodoy) scheme as a centerpiece. Just ahead of the elections, under its third phase, direct financial assistance of Rs 9,000 was transferred to nearly four million women beneficiaries, amounting to an outlay of approximately Rs 3,600 crore. Beyond its welfare dimension, the scheme is also widely seen as a calibrated political strategy aimed at consolidating women voters, a demographic that is nearly equal in size to male voters in Assam and, in several regions, exhibits higher turnout rates.   The opposition has sharply criticised the scheme, describing it as a form of "direct electoral inducement." In its "People's Chargesheet," the Congress has leveled serious allegations against the government, including corruption, the prevalence of a "syndicate raj," the transfer of land to corporate interests, and misuse of administrative machinery. According to opposition claims, a structured network influences the allocation of contracts and resources, adversely affecting small businesses, tea garden workers, and ordinary citizens. Alongside these concerns, broader issues such as unemployment, inflation, and growing social discontent have also become integral to the electoral narrative.   While the BJP highlights its administrative assertiveness, such as crackdowns on child marriage and measures aimed at curbing polygamy, as key achievements, the opposition dismisses these as selective interventions, arguing that they divert attention from deeper economic challenges.   Ultimately, the Assam Assembly election of 2026 is not merely about a change in power; it represents a critical inflection point in the state's political trajectory. On one side, the BJP is seeking to legitimize its governance model by linking the issue of illegal immigration with development, security, and stability. On the other, the Congress is attempting to position itself as a viable alternative, emphasizing social balance, institutional politics, and renewed leadership.   For voters, the choice is stark: whether to endorse the promise of stability and continuity, or to pivot toward change. The results on May 4 will not only shape Assam's future but are also likely to influence the broader political direction of Northeast India.

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Mamata is seeing a ghost of Bangladesh behind the massive outrage and waves of protest over rape and murder of the trainee doctor. And the reasons are many.

It’s been over a fortnight. Yet with each passing day the voice of protest is getting louder and stronger. From the streets of Kolkata it’s pouring into roads of hinterland. The cry for justice for a rape victim has consolidated into a wail of demands to set a lot of wrongdoings right. Here in lies the fear and trepidation. Wasn’t the issue that brought the youth of Bangladesh out on the thoroughfares a simple, innocent one of quota reform?

The chief minister of Bengal, known for understanding the pulse of people better than many, was quick to read the signages floating in the political horizon.

The most obvious reason for her to be tensed is that both the regime change in Bangladesh and the mass protest in Bengal, were student-driven to begin with. The two incidents---end of 15 year old Sheikh Hasina government and turbulence in West Bengal, over the heinous crime, falling back to back, the first on August 5th and the latter from August 9th onwards, give natural scope for comparisons. More so, because in both the cases the movement strayed beyond an affected constituency to include aggrieved people at large, cutting across socio-economic demography. If the quota reform protest started by students in Bangladesh became a mass uprising against an autocratic regime, the campaign demanding justice for the rape victim and overall safety and security of women in Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal soon snowballed into a movement of no-confidence against the government. Slogans--”Mamata must resign” also got floated in social media much in line with the call for ouster of Sheikh Hasina. In fact “Resignation of Hasina” became the single point agenda into which all other fringe demands coalesced.

Incidentally, even before people started drawing parallels, that there could be a thread of commonality in the way the upheaval in Bangladesh and Bengal played out, Mamata was quick to point out that the Opposition were trying to pull off a Bangladesh by politicizing the tragic incident: “A coordinated approach has been executed by the BJP and the CPIM with support from the Centre to defame Bengal and exploit the situation....They want to make a Bangladesh here. They are taking cues from student unrest in Bangladesh and are attempting to capture similarly. I have no longing for the chair. I came here to serve people.”

Not only Mamata, her political lieutenants are consistently equating the turmoil in Bengal with the mayhem in Bangladesh. Cabinet minister for North Bengal development Udayan Guha threatened to take stern action against those, who would be trying to exploit the situation by emulating a Bangladesh like movement. “ Even after the hospital was vandalised, the police did not open fire on anyone. The police will not allow a Bangladesh type situation. We will not allow Bengal to turn into Bangladesh, Guha thundered.

Is the government’s fear unfounded?

Apart from the similarities on ground zero, as to how and where the future course of events are heading to, there are ample reasons for Bengal to mull on-- as to what led to a Bangladesh like boiling point. To begin with, it’ll be appropriate to talk of Bangladesh and the prevailing situation, that made the students’ protest become big in magnitude. The students were out on the streets because of a high reservation in public jobs. Unemployment and stagnant job market in private sector coupled with a high rate of inflation drove the educated youth to rebel against the government.

But soon the students found enormous number of sympathisers, who were equally at the receiving end. According to Bangladesh citizens, the last two terms of the Sheikh Hasina government were a mockery of democracy. Even elections would be compromised. As Hasina grew from strength to strength, she politicized institutions. The rank and file of police owed allegiance to the ruling dispensation. Extortion, harrassment and raids by police and people in power became rampant. An atmosphere of fear and repression reigned and people got restless to overthrow the government.

Politicization of institutions has been happening in Mamata government too. Allegations are quite strong that police in Bengal functions at the beck and call of political bosses. The lapses and alleged loopholes on the part of police in handling the rape and murder of the young doctor have yet again revealed a sense of confused or misplaced loyalty.

But above everything else both Hasina and Mamata governments allegedly seem to have twined in accepting corruption as a way of life. In Bangladesh jobs of primary and secondary teachers got sold at premium, Rs 10-12 lakh in the Hasina regime. Even police had to pay up for prized postings and transfers. In Bengal busting of the teacher’s recruitment scam has revealed how unsuccessful and ineligible candidates got government jobs in schools in exchange of bribes.

Similarities are multiple and inescapable. Mamata has good reasons to be apprehensive. It’s not only she, who can see and connect the dots. People, out on the streets, clamoring for justice, can see a providential pattern somewhere in the unfolding of future events in these two places-- Bangladesh and Bengal. True, they share more than 2,217 odd km of border. They share the same umbilical cord, other than language, culture, ethos, icons. Even emotions are the same. So she cannot take any risk.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Kolkata. Views personal)

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