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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Poriborton!

BJP candidate for Bhabanipur and Nandigram constituencies Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the prestigious Bhabanipur seat, shows a certificate of election on Monday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: The Bengali word “Poriborton” translates to profound change. While it was initially fiercely utilized as the central battle cry for the assembly elections in West Bengal, the final tally from all five state elections reveals that the spirit of the word has swept across...

Poriborton!

BJP candidate for Bhabanipur and Nandigram constituencies Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the prestigious Bhabanipur seat, shows a certificate of election on Monday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: The Bengali word “Poriborton” translates to profound change. While it was initially fiercely utilized as the central battle cry for the assembly elections in West Bengal, the final tally from all five state elections reveals that the spirit of the word has swept across the entire nation. The recent electoral outcomes have fundamentally rewritten the established rules of Indian democracy. From a massive anti-incumbency wave overturning fifteen years of rule in Bengal, to a political novice shattering a six-decade Dravidian stronghold in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led alliance successfully dislodging the incumbent Left in Kerala, the electorate has delivered a highly decisive mandate. Alongside sweeping consolidations of power in Assam and Puducherry, these results collectively disrupt historical traditions and reshape the national political landscape for years to come. Titan Toppled In West Bengal, the call for Poribartan finally resonated with enough force to bring down a formidable political fortress. A relentless anti-incumbency wave has overturned Mamata Banerjee’s fifteen-year rule. For a decade and a half, the Trinamool Congress maintained an iron grip on the state’s narrative, having previously ousted the Left Front on the very same promise of sweeping change. The defeat of the incumbent government signifies a monumental shift in the political psychology of Bengal. The electorate, driven by an urgent desire for a new direction, has dismantled a deeply entrenched political machine. This result forces a complete recalibration of power dynamics in eastern India, leaving a massive political vacuum that victorious forces will now rush to fill, fundamentally altering the governance trajectory of the state. Duopoly Shattered Equally seismic is the political earthquake that has struck Tamil Nadu. For six decades, the state’s political arena was fiercely guarded by a seemingly unbreakable Dravidian duopoly, with power alternating predictably between established giants. However, the emergence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by cinema icon Thalapathy Vijay, has dismantled this historical dominance. By emerging as the single-largest party in the assembly count, the TVK has achieved what generations of politicians deemed impossible. This is not merely a change in government but a profound cultural and political revolution. The voters of Tamil Nadu have overwhelmingly opted for a fresh narrative, proving that star power coupled with an untested political promise can still upend deeply rooted ideological empires, ushering in an entirely new era of leadership. Absolute Dominance Meanwhile, the political landscape in the Northeast has witnessed a different kind of decisive mandate. In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has not only retained power but has emerged significantly stronger, securing a third consecutive term. This victory effectively cements an aggressive regional hegemony and signals the near-total ouster of the Congress party from Assam’s mainstream politics. The result brings an ironclad continuity to the state, allowing the incumbent administration to push forward its agenda without any formidable legislative friction, while leaving the state’s oldest party desperately searching for political relevance. Pendulum Swings In Kerala, the electorate has delivered a decisive blow to the incumbent Left Democratic Front. The Congress-led United Democratic Front has successfully dislodged the government, claiming a vital victory in a state renowned for its fiercely contested, oscillating elections. This resurgence of the UDF injects critical new life into the state’s Congress machinery, drastically altering the governance model in Kerala. The outcome firmly proves that the traditional pendulum of Kerala politics still possesses the momentum to swing back fiercely against the incumbent, denying the Left a continued and uninterrupted grip on power. Comfortable Continuity Further down the coast in Puducherry, the mandate favored stability within a rapidly changing national map. The National Democratic Alliance government, led by the AINRC, comfortably secured its return to power. This victory ensures that the NDA maintains a crucial administrative foothold in the southern union territory, providing a steady anchor for its regional allies amid the broader national churn. When viewed collectively, these independent state results weave a complex tapestry that will inevitably reshape national politics. The fall of towering regional satraps in West Bengal and the disruption of the historic Dravidian stronghold in Tamil Nadu indicate a national electorate that is deeply restless and entirely unafraid to discard legacy systems. For the national opposition, the revival in Kerala offers a much-needed glimmer of hope, though it is heavily overshadowed by the existential crisis they face in Assam. The spectacular rise of new regional entities introduces a fresh, highly unpredictable variable into the national coalition arithmetic ahead of future general elections. Ultimately, the political center of gravity has fundamentally shifted, proving that “Poribartan” is no longer just a localized slogan, but the defining new reality of the country.

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Mamata is seeing a ghost of Bangladesh behind the massive outrage and waves of protest over rape and murder of the trainee doctor. And the reasons are many.

It’s been over a fortnight. Yet with each passing day the voice of protest is getting louder and stronger. From the streets of Kolkata it’s pouring into roads of hinterland. The cry for justice for a rape victim has consolidated into a wail of demands to set a lot of wrongdoings right. Here in lies the fear and trepidation. Wasn’t the issue that brought the youth of Bangladesh out on the thoroughfares a simple, innocent one of quota reform?

The chief minister of Bengal, known for understanding the pulse of people better than many, was quick to read the signages floating in the political horizon.

The most obvious reason for her to be tensed is that both the regime change in Bangladesh and the mass protest in Bengal, were student-driven to begin with. The two incidents---end of 15 year old Sheikh Hasina government and turbulence in West Bengal, over the heinous crime, falling back to back, the first on August 5th and the latter from August 9th onwards, give natural scope for comparisons. More so, because in both the cases the movement strayed beyond an affected constituency to include aggrieved people at large, cutting across socio-economic demography. If the quota reform protest started by students in Bangladesh became a mass uprising against an autocratic regime, the campaign demanding justice for the rape victim and overall safety and security of women in Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal soon snowballed into a movement of no-confidence against the government. Slogans--”Mamata must resign” also got floated in social media much in line with the call for ouster of Sheikh Hasina. In fact “Resignation of Hasina” became the single point agenda into which all other fringe demands coalesced.

Incidentally, even before people started drawing parallels, that there could be a thread of commonality in the way the upheaval in Bangladesh and Bengal played out, Mamata was quick to point out that the Opposition were trying to pull off a Bangladesh by politicizing the tragic incident: “A coordinated approach has been executed by the BJP and the CPIM with support from the Centre to defame Bengal and exploit the situation....They want to make a Bangladesh here. They are taking cues from student unrest in Bangladesh and are attempting to capture similarly. I have no longing for the chair. I came here to serve people.”

Not only Mamata, her political lieutenants are consistently equating the turmoil in Bengal with the mayhem in Bangladesh. Cabinet minister for North Bengal development Udayan Guha threatened to take stern action against those, who would be trying to exploit the situation by emulating a Bangladesh like movement. “ Even after the hospital was vandalised, the police did not open fire on anyone. The police will not allow a Bangladesh type situation. We will not allow Bengal to turn into Bangladesh, Guha thundered.

Is the government’s fear unfounded?

Apart from the similarities on ground zero, as to how and where the future course of events are heading to, there are ample reasons for Bengal to mull on-- as to what led to a Bangladesh like boiling point. To begin with, it’ll be appropriate to talk of Bangladesh and the prevailing situation, that made the students’ protest become big in magnitude. The students were out on the streets because of a high reservation in public jobs. Unemployment and stagnant job market in private sector coupled with a high rate of inflation drove the educated youth to rebel against the government.

But soon the students found enormous number of sympathisers, who were equally at the receiving end. According to Bangladesh citizens, the last two terms of the Sheikh Hasina government were a mockery of democracy. Even elections would be compromised. As Hasina grew from strength to strength, she politicized institutions. The rank and file of police owed allegiance to the ruling dispensation. Extortion, harrassment and raids by police and people in power became rampant. An atmosphere of fear and repression reigned and people got restless to overthrow the government.

Politicization of institutions has been happening in Mamata government too. Allegations are quite strong that police in Bengal functions at the beck and call of political bosses. The lapses and alleged loopholes on the part of police in handling the rape and murder of the young doctor have yet again revealed a sense of confused or misplaced loyalty.

But above everything else both Hasina and Mamata governments allegedly seem to have twined in accepting corruption as a way of life. In Bangladesh jobs of primary and secondary teachers got sold at premium, Rs 10-12 lakh in the Hasina regime. Even police had to pay up for prized postings and transfers. In Bengal busting of the teacher’s recruitment scam has revealed how unsuccessful and ineligible candidates got government jobs in schools in exchange of bribes.

Similarities are multiple and inescapable. Mamata has good reasons to be apprehensive. It’s not only she, who can see and connect the dots. People, out on the streets, clamoring for justice, can see a providential pattern somewhere in the unfolding of future events in these two places-- Bangladesh and Bengal. True, they share more than 2,217 odd km of border. They share the same umbilical cord, other than language, culture, ethos, icons. Even emotions are the same. So she cannot take any risk.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Kolkata. Views personal)

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