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By:

Rajendra Pandharpure

15 April 2025 at 2:25:54 pm

BJP eyes chances in Western Maharashtra after the Pawars

The death of Ajit Pawar has unsettled western Maharashtra, leaving the BJP cautiously biding its time Pune: Western Maharashtra has long been Indian politics in miniature: dense with sugar cooperatives, caste arithmetic, money and muscle power. For decades it was shaped by one extended family – the Pawars - whose writ ran from district banks to dairy unions and from assembly halls to village panchayats. The sudden death of Ajit Pawar, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strongman and...

BJP eyes chances in Western Maharashtra after the Pawars

The death of Ajit Pawar has unsettled western Maharashtra, leaving the BJP cautiously biding its time Pune: Western Maharashtra has long been Indian politics in miniature: dense with sugar cooperatives, caste arithmetic, money and muscle power. For decades it was shaped by one extended family – the Pawars - whose writ ran from district banks to dairy unions and from assembly halls to village panchayats. The sudden death of Ajit Pawar, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strongman and Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister, has jolted this ecosystem. The aftershocks are being felt most keenly not by his rivals, but by his ally, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has long coveted the region. Maharashtra’s politics has always been regionally segmented. The BJP is entrenched in north Maharashtra; it has broken through spectacularly in Mumbai, including wresting control of the municipal corporation; Vidarbha remains Congress-leaning while Marathwada is competitive and volatile. Family Bastion Western Maharashtra, by contrast, has remained been the Pawars’ citadel. Control over cooperatives, especially sugar, has translated into rural loyalty, financial muscle and electoral dominance. The NCP, founded by Sharad Pawar, thrived on this architecture. The BJP, despite its national rise, has struggled to crack it. Rather than dislodge the system, the BJP sought to co-opt it. Disaffected satraps were inducted like Udayanraje Bhosale in Satara; the Mahadiks in Kolhapur; the Mohite-Patils in Solapur. Local strongmen such as Rahul Kul in Pune district were elevated and veterans like Harshvardhan Patil were brought in, if only briefly. The idea was to gradually bleed the undivided NCP led by patriarch Sharad Pawar. That effort has intensified as the BJP eyes an audacious goal: returning to power in Maharashtra on its own in the 2029 Assembly election. For that to happen, western Maharashtra is indispensable. It is no accident that the Modi government had created a new Union ministry of cooperation, handing it to Amit Shah. Cooperatives are the region’s political bloodstream. After the 2024 general election, Muralidhar Mohol, elected from Pune, was made minister of state in the same department. He was also informally tasked with western Maharashtra in a clear signal of the BJP’s strategic focus. Mohol’s brief was daunting: contain both Pawars. Sharad Pawar’s stature as a national deal-maker and Ajit Pawar’s grip on local machinery made them a formidable duo even when divided. Yet, the recent municipal contests in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad hinted at change. When both Pawars campaigned together, the BJP still managed to defeat them, suggesting that the old formula no longer guaranteed victory. Uncertain Times Then came the plane crash on January 28 leading to Ajit Pawar’s tragic death. His wife, Sunetra Pawar, was sworn in as deputy chief minister, an act of continuity intended to steady the ranks. While public sympathy is palpable, it has nothing to do with organisation. Sunetra Pawar will need time to command the networks her husband once ran by instinct. Her early gestures like visiting Karad to pay homage to Yashwantrao Chavan and invoking the legacy of Phule, Shahu and Ambedkar signal an attempt to anchor the party in its progressive tradition. Whether that rhetoric can substitute for Ajit Pawar’s authority is uncertain. Uncertainty abounds elsewhere too. Rumours swirl of a rapprochement or even a merger between the rival NCP factions. One scenario has Supriya Sule entering the Union cabinet. Another asks a more existential question: could Sharad Pawar, architect of Maharashtra’s secular, centrist politics, ever align formally with the BJP’s Hindutva project? His reported unease with a recent India–America trade agreement has fuelled speculation among supporters already anxious about ideological drift. Against this haze, the BJP’s restraint is striking. Rather than rushing to exploit the moment, it has preferred to wait and watch. The party knows that western Maharashtra is not won in a season. Cooperative elections, local bodies and caste coalitions move slowly. For now, the BJP is content to let the Pawars recalibrate, to allow factions to test their strength, and to intervene only when the contours are clearer. In a region where politics has long been about inheritance, Ajit Pawar’s absence has exposed how fragile even the most entrenched systems can be. The BJP senses opportunity, but is also aware of the attendant risks. Its wait-and-watch posture reflects a calculation born of experience. And in western Maharashtra, patience can be a weapon.

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Why is Mamata Seeing Ghost of Bangladesh?

Mamata is seeing a ghost of Bangladesh behind the massive outrage and waves of protest over rape and murder of the trainee doctor. And the reasons are many.

It’s been over a fortnight. Yet with each passing day the voice of protest is getting louder and stronger. From the streets of Kolkata it’s pouring into roads of hinterland. The cry for justice for a rape victim has consolidated into a wail of demands to set a lot of wrongdoings right. Here in lies the fear and trepidation. Wasn’t the issue that brought the youth of Bangladesh out on the thoroughfares a simple, innocent one of quota reform?

The chief minister of Bengal, known for understanding the pulse of people better than many, was quick to read the signages floating in the political horizon.

The most obvious reason for her to be tensed is that both the regime change in Bangladesh and the mass protest in Bengal, were student-driven to begin with. The two incidents---end of 15 year old Sheikh Hasina government and turbulence in West Bengal, over the heinous crime, falling back to back, the first on August 5th and the latter from August 9th onwards, give natural scope for comparisons. More so, because in both the cases the movement strayed beyond an affected constituency to include aggrieved people at large, cutting across socio-economic demography. If the quota reform protest started by students in Bangladesh became a mass uprising against an autocratic regime, the campaign demanding justice for the rape victim and overall safety and security of women in Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal soon snowballed into a movement of no-confidence against the government. Slogans--”Mamata must resign” also got floated in social media much in line with the call for ouster of Sheikh Hasina. In fact “Resignation of Hasina” became the single point agenda into which all other fringe demands coalesced.

Incidentally, even before people started drawing parallels, that there could be a thread of commonality in the way the upheaval in Bangladesh and Bengal played out, Mamata was quick to point out that the Opposition were trying to pull off a Bangladesh by politicizing the tragic incident: “A coordinated approach has been executed by the BJP and the CPIM with support from the Centre to defame Bengal and exploit the situation....They want to make a Bangladesh here. They are taking cues from student unrest in Bangladesh and are attempting to capture similarly. I have no longing for the chair. I came here to serve people.”

Not only Mamata, her political lieutenants are consistently equating the turmoil in Bengal with the mayhem in Bangladesh. Cabinet minister for North Bengal development Udayan Guha threatened to take stern action against those, who would be trying to exploit the situation by emulating a Bangladesh like movement. “ Even after the hospital was vandalised, the police did not open fire on anyone. The police will not allow a Bangladesh type situation. We will not allow Bengal to turn into Bangladesh, Guha thundered.

Is the government’s fear unfounded?

Apart from the similarities on ground zero, as to how and where the future course of events are heading to, there are ample reasons for Bengal to mull on-- as to what led to a Bangladesh like boiling point. To begin with, it’ll be appropriate to talk of Bangladesh and the prevailing situation, that made the students’ protest become big in magnitude. The students were out on the streets because of a high reservation in public jobs. Unemployment and stagnant job market in private sector coupled with a high rate of inflation drove the educated youth to rebel against the government.

But soon the students found enormous number of sympathisers, who were equally at the receiving end. According to Bangladesh citizens, the last two terms of the Sheikh Hasina government were a mockery of democracy. Even elections would be compromised. As Hasina grew from strength to strength, she politicized institutions. The rank and file of police owed allegiance to the ruling dispensation. Extortion, harrassment and raids by police and people in power became rampant. An atmosphere of fear and repression reigned and people got restless to overthrow the government.

Politicization of institutions has been happening in Mamata government too. Allegations are quite strong that police in Bengal functions at the beck and call of political bosses. The lapses and alleged loopholes on the part of police in handling the rape and murder of the young doctor have yet again revealed a sense of confused or misplaced loyalty.

But above everything else both Hasina and Mamata governments allegedly seem to have twined in accepting corruption as a way of life. In Bangladesh jobs of primary and secondary teachers got sold at premium, Rs 10-12 lakh in the Hasina regime. Even police had to pay up for prized postings and transfers. In Bengal busting of the teacher’s recruitment scam has revealed how unsuccessful and ineligible candidates got government jobs in schools in exchange of bribes.

Similarities are multiple and inescapable. Mamata has good reasons to be apprehensive. It’s not only she, who can see and connect the dots. People, out on the streets, clamoring for justice, can see a providential pattern somewhere in the unfolding of future events in these two places-- Bangladesh and Bengal. True, they share more than 2,217 odd km of border. They share the same umbilical cord, other than language, culture, ethos, icons. Even emotions are the same. So she cannot take any risk.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Kolkata. Views personal)

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