top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Mahayuti struggles with seat-sharing formula

Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti alliance is currently navigating a treacherous political minefield. With the crucial Legislative Council elections rapidly approaching, deep-seated differences over seat-sharing have surfaced. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday offered a candid admission of these unresolved disputes. His statements underscore the immense pressure on the coalition partners. The state is preparing to vote for sixteen council seats and one bypoll seat in Nagpur. Voting is...

Mahayuti struggles with seat-sharing formula

Mumbai: The ruling Mahayuti alliance is currently navigating a treacherous political minefield. With the crucial Legislative Council elections rapidly approaching, deep-seated differences over seat-sharing have surfaced. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday offered a candid admission of these unresolved disputes. His statements underscore the immense pressure on the coalition partners. The state is preparing to vote for sixteen council seats and one bypoll seat in Nagpur. Voting is scheduled for June 18, with the all-important counting set for June 22. Addressing the media after inaugurating the Jawahar Balbhavan in Mumbai, Fadnavis sought to project a calm exterior. He emphasised that detailed discussions are still ongoing to evaluate various aspects of the electoral battle. He expressed confidence that the alliance would soon reach an amicable solution. However, the specific geographies he mentioned reveal the exact fault lines. Negotiations with the Shiv Sena are heavily concentrated on Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar and Nashik. Meanwhile, talks with the Nationalist Congress Party are focused squarely on Pune. Alliance Arithmatic The arithmetic of the alliance is proving incredibly difficult to balance. The Shiv Sena had firmly demanded seven seats even as the BJP was offering only 3. They justify this claim by pointing to their strong support bases in Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, Sambhajinagar, Ratnagiri, Nashik, and Yavatmal. The Bharatiya Janata Party has a vastly different calculation. The BJP plans to assert its dominance by contesting twelve seats. This aggressive stance would leave only three seats for the Sena and a mere two seats for the Sunetra Pawar-led NCP. With the nomination process already underway, the clock is ticking loudly for the Mahayuti leadership. This intense internal friction prompted a sudden political maneuver by Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde. He flew to New Delhi over the weekend amid the escalating deadlock. Sena sources indicated that Shinde sought the intervention of the BJP’s central leadership. A Sena minister, however, quickly tried to downplay the optics of the trip. He insisted that Shinde travelled for an unscheduled programme before heading to Bengaluru for a planned event. Despite these official denials, the timing strongly suggests a high-stakes crisis intervention. Bitter Conflict The most bitter conflict within the alliance centers on the Thane local authorities constituency. Both the BJP and the Shinde-led Sena are fiercely staking their claims. A BJP legislator recently argued that political tickets should be distributed based strictly on numerical strength. He pointed out that the BJP commands 444 corporators in the region. In stark contrast, the Shinde-led Sena and the allied Jijau organisation possess a combined total of only 346 corporators. However, political reality in Maharashtra is rarely dictated by numbers alone. The Shinde faction views Thane as its emotional and traditional stronghold. Surrendering this territory to their alliance partner is considered politically unthinkable. This local dispute is already threatening to severely damage the broader coalition. A Sena Member of Parliament recently issued a stark warning regarding the upcoming Thane Zilla Parishad elections. He boldly asserted that Sena workers are fully prepared to fight alone and hoist their saffron flag, regardless of the alliance’s survival. The battle lines are extending further across the state map. The Sena is demanding the Jalgaon seat, which the BJP is equally determined to contest. Furthermore, reports suggest the Sena is preparing to unilaterally field a candidate in Raigad. This would further complicate the already delicate negotiations. Despite these mounting tensions, BJP minister Girish Mahajan has publicly maintained that the deadlock will be resolved shortly. A final decision now rests on an impending high-level meeting between Fadnavis, Shinde, and Sunetra Pawar. MVA Crisis Meanwhile, the political turbulence is not restricted to the Mahayuti alliance. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi is dealing with its own severe crisis in the Vidarbha region. The Chandrapur-Gadchiroli council seat has triggered frantic political poaching. As many as sixty corporators and Zilla Parishad members from the Congress party reportedly went missing recently. Congress leaders have directly accused BJP legislator Banti Bhangadiya of orchestrating this disappearance. They allege he has shifted the corporators to an undisclosed location to manipulate the voting outcome. The Congress has responded with an aggressive counter-narrative. Senior Congress leader Vijay Wadettiwar made a startling claim that over one hundred BJP corporators are secretly in contact with him. While Wadettiwar strategically hid their exact whereabouts, his statement highlighted a critical vulnerability. He suggested that the BJP is also suffering from severe internal factionalism. Wadettiwar warned that these hidden rifts will ultimately cost the ruling party dearly in the forthcoming elections.

A Battle for the Future

Updated: Feb 19, 2025

The Serbian government’s failure in the face of a deadly accident has sparked a youth-led revolution that threatens to unseat its long-time populist president.

Serbian

In Serbia, Statehood Day last week saw a dramatic demonstration of the growing divide between the establishment and a disillusioned populace desperate for change. Thousands of students gathered in Kragujevac, demanding justice and an end to corruption. The contrasting messages — President Aleksandar Vucic’s fiery nationalist rhetoric to preserve Serbian sovereignty, the other a cry for transparency and accountability — encapsulate the nation’s current political upheaval.


The students have been vehemently protesting the tragic collapse of a concrete canopy in Novi Sad in November last year, which killed 15 people. This disaster, widely attributed to governmental negligence and endemic corruption, has become a powerful symbol of the failures of Vucic’s government. The students, initially mobilized by the calamity, have evolved into leaders of a nationwide anti-graft movement. Their efforts reflect a broader sentiment among Serbians that the political elite led by Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has become entrenched in corruption and authoritarian practices.


The student protest in Kragujevac was particularly poignant. The town holds historical significance as the site of Serbia’s 1835 Constitution, which sought to curtail the power of the ruling elite under the Ottoman Empire. Today, students flocked to Kragujevac not only to demand justice for the victims of the Novi Sad tragedy but to call for the renewal of Serbia’s democratic principles.


The protests have evolved into a movement with wide-reaching support, transcending student bodies to include activists, civil society groups, and ordinary citizens who have grown disillusioned with Serbia’s political status quo. Over the past three months, the movement has led to significant concessions from the government, including the resignation of the Prime Minister, as well as criminal charges for 13 individuals involved in the corruption scandal surrounding the Novi Sad accident. Yet, the students remain unsatisfied, insisting that full accountability must be achieved before they will stop protesting.


Vucic, however, has dismissed the protests as part of a foreign plot to destabilize Serbia. In his rhetoric, he has repeatedly accused Western powers of trying to undermine his government and create chaos in the region. His speech on Statehood Day mirrored this narrative, warning that Serbia’s enemies are actively working to bring down the country’s leadership. He even suggested that foreign funds are being used to orchestrate the protests. Despite these claims, Vucic has been unable to provide tangible evidence of such foreign interference. For many Serbians, this increasingly paranoid tone feels like a last-ditch effort by a president whose hold on power is beginning to slip.


While Vucic’s nationalistic appeal still resonates with many Serbs, particularly in rural areas and among those who feel threatened by the idea of Serbia’s integration into the European Union, his government’s failures in governance are becoming harder to ignore. The ongoing protests, combined with Vucic’s diminishing credibility, have exposed deep fractures in Serbia’s political landscape. The president’s focus on a conspiracy theory involving foreign powers is seen by many as an attempt to distract from the real issues of corruption and rule of law.


The students, however, remain cautious about the involvement of opposition political parties, many of whom they accuse of being equally compromised by corruption. Their movement has thus far resisted calls for the formation of a transitional government to oversee fair elections, preferring to keep its focus on root-and-branch political reform. This stance has left Vucic with limited space to negotiate with his opposition, as the legitimacy of his leadership is increasingly questioned by the younger generation.


In the coming days, Serbia’s political crisis will likely deepen. The students’ ability to maintain momentum, despite efforts to discredit them, will be crucial in determining the outcome of the struggle for Serbia’s future. A new era of reform, accountability, and democratic renewal is possible, but it will require more than just rallies and protests.

Comments


bottom of page