Turning Right, Looking Outward

With Sanae Takaichi’s landslide, Tokyo signals a harder line at home, a sharper edge abroad, and a readiness to reshape the Indo-Pacific balance.

Japan does not often deliver political earthquakes. Its post-war democracy has been defined more by continuity than rupture, by factional bargaining within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) than by sweeping mandates. Now, Sanae Takaichi’s emphatic election victory - an outright majority for the LDP and a two-thirds supermajority with its coalition partner Ishin - comes close to an earthquake. It is not merely a personal triumph for a first-term prime minister. It is a signal that Japan’s strategic centre of gravity is shifting decisively, with consequences that will be felt far beyond Tokyo.

The numbers alone are startling. The LDP crossed the 233-seat threshold for a Lower House majority within hours of polls closing, and Ishin now controls enough seats to override the upper chamber. For a leader who only assumed office in October last year and promptly called a rare winter election, the result confers unusual authority. Japan’s recent history of four prime ministers in roughly three years makes the contrast sharper. Takaichi has not just survived the volatility; she has decisively crushed it.

At home, the mandate frees her to pursue an agenda that blends economic populism with strategic hawkishness. Her pledge to cut the consumption tax has unsettled markets already wary of Japan’s towering public debt. But politically, the move taps into a broader frustration among younger voters, a cohort that has responded to her blunt style, her image as an indefatigable worker, and even the curious pop-cultural phenomenon of ‘sanakatsu’ - the social-media fandom built around her everyday accessories. This reflects a deeper realignment where a conservative leader is managing to mobilise younger voters in a society often caricatured as gerontocratic and risk-averse.

Yet it is on defence and foreign policy that Takaichi’s victory carries the most weight. In office, she has wasted little time accelerating military spending and sharpening Japan’s posture towards China. This builds on trends set in motion under her predecessors, but her tone is more forthright and her ideological instincts more unapologetic. The era in which Japan could rely on strategic ambiguity by being economically entwined with China while sheltering comfortably under America’s security umbrella, is drawing to a close. Takaichi’s Japan is openly preparing for a more contested Indo-Pacific.

Beijing will have noted the scale of her mandate with unease. A Japan with a stable government, rising defence budgets, and parliamentary room to manoeuvre is a more formidable actor in East Asia.

Tokyo’s role in the ‘Quad’ with India, Australia and the United States is likely to deepen, as will cooperation on maritime security and supply-chain resilience. For China, already grappling with a tightening ring of US allies, Takaichi’s victory adds another layer of strategic friction.

Washington, by contrast, sees reassurance. The unusual endorsement she received from President Donald Trump during the campaign underscored how central Japan has become to American strategy in Asia. A stronger, more assertive Tokyo reduces the burden on the US while reinforcing deterrence against China and North Korea.

Beyond the region, the implications are subtler but no less significant. Japan has long been a status quo power, a champion of rules-based trade and multilateralism. Takaichi’s blend of tax cuts, defence expansion and muscular nationalism suggests a recalibration rather than an abandonment of that role. Tokyo is unlikely to retreat from global institutions, but it will press harder for reforms that reflect shifting power balances.

The supermajority also raises the question of constitutional change that Japan has skirted for decades. With the numbers now on her side, Takaichi may be tempted to revisit Article 9, the pacifist clause that has constrained Japan’s military role since 1947. Even incremental revisions would mark a historic break, normalising Japan as a conventional military power at a time when global norms are already under strain.

For now, the message from voters is unmistakable. Japan wants decisiveness after drift. Long seen as cautious to a fault, the country has chosen a leader prepared to test the limits of its post-war inheritance.