A Dangerous Tango in Eurasian Skies

The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan which was reportedly struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile over Chechnya killed 38 people and injured dozens more. The fallout has thrust the centuries-old Azerbaijani-Russian relations into a precarious new phase. The tragedy brought to sharp relief the broader instability in the region emanating from Moscow’s increasingly fraught geopolitical gambits.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to offer condolences, he stopped short of claiming responsibility. Official inquiries have been launched in Moscow, but the lack of transparency and accountability has fuelled suspicion in Baku, where tensions with Russia are already simmering.

The unfortunate affair is just the latest flashpoint in a complex, centuries-old relationship between the two nations whose ‘partnership’ has often been strained.

The roots of modern Azerbaijani-Russian relations can be traced back to the 19th century, when Azerbaijan was absorbed into the Russian Empire. During the Soviet era, Azerbaijan became a vital resource hub, supplying oil to Moscow and integrating into its economic and military fabric. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 unleashed nationalist movements in Azerbaijan, leading to a bid for greater independence.

This newfound sovereignty was immediately tested during the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Armenia, a conflict where Russia played a dual role: brokering ceasefires while covertly supplying arms to both sides. Azerbaijan’s leadership, wary of Moscow’s intentions, began seeking ways to diversify its alliances, strengthening ties with Turkey and Western powers.

Despite this pivot, Azerbaijan has remained economically tied to Russia, particularly in energy and trade. Russia is a critical transit point for Azerbaijani oil exports and a significant partner in military cooperation. Yet, relations have never been entirely smooth. Disputes over natural gas pricing, military manoeuvres in the Caspian Sea, and conflicting interests in the South Caucasus region have repeatedly tested the bilateral relationship.

The December 25 crash has become emblematic of Moscow’s broader mismanagement of its airspace amidst ongoing military conflicts. Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has turned much of Eastern Europe into a no-fly zone. While Ukraine banned civilian flights outright in its airspace, Russia has implemented only partial restrictions, even as Ukrainian drone strikes and military operations extend deep into its territory.

This inconsistent approach has made flying over Russian territory increasingly hazardous. Whether this was a tragic accident or a case of mistaken identity, the message it sends to Russia’s neighbours is chilling: even commercial flights are not immune to the chaos unleashed by Kremlin’s militarization.

In the wake of the tragedy, Azerbaijan has decided to review its rules for Russian citizens staying within its borders. This move follows Moscow’s announcement of stricter visa regulations for foreigners beginning in January 2025. Although Azerbaijani officials claim this is a matter of parity and reciprocity, it is hard to separate it from the plane crash and the broader deterioration of trust.

The policy shift marks a potential turning point in the Azerbaijani-Russian dynamic. Moscow’s new rules may be aimed at controlling migration, but they also risk alienating key partners like Azerbaijan, whose citizens benefit from visa-free travel to Russia. Baku’s retaliatory stance could escalate into a tit-for-tat series of diplomatic restrictions, further straining ties.

The crash and its aftermath come at a particularly sensitive time for the South Caucasus. Russia, embroiled in its war with Ukraine, has seen its influence in the region wane. Azerbaijan, emboldened by military victories in Nagorno-Karabakh and backed by Turkey, has grown more assertive in recent years. Meanwhile, Western nations have ramped up their engagement with Baku, eyeing its strategic location and energy resources as counterweights to Moscow.

This shifting balance of power leaves Russia in a precarious position. Its inability to maintain control over its own air defences, coupled with mounting grievances from regional allies, exposes the limits of its authority. The Kremlin’s decision to militarize its skies, prioritize aggression over safety, and downplay accountability has consequences far beyond its borders. For Azerbaijan and other neighbouring states, these missteps reinforce the urgency of diversifying alliances and reducing reliance on Russia.