top of page

By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Oil crisis: India's resilience on edge

Workers load LPG cylinders in a truck, in Chikkamagaluru, Karnataka on Tuesday. | Pic: PTI New Delhi: The Israel–US–Iran war's oil shock, with prices at $116/barrel, Hormuz blockade, and recession fears, threatens global depression per Wood Mackenzie and IMF warnings. India buffers via 8-week reserves, Russian imports, and steady fuel prices, prioritising diplomacy and "Nation First" amid opposition clamour and geopolitical shadows from China–Russia manoeuvres. The escalating Israel–US–Iran...

Oil crisis: India's resilience on edge

Workers load LPG cylinders in a truck, in Chikkamagaluru, Karnataka on Tuesday. | Pic: PTI New Delhi: The Israel–US–Iran war's oil shock, with prices at $116/barrel, Hormuz blockade, and recession fears, threatens global depression per Wood Mackenzie and IMF warnings. India buffers via 8-week reserves, Russian imports, and steady fuel prices, prioritising diplomacy and "Nation First" amid opposition clamour and geopolitical shadows from China–Russia manoeuvres. The escalating Israel–US–Iran conflict has triggered a global oil crisis that now threatens to plunge the world into recessionary depths. On the tenth day of the war, the International Monetary Fund has urged policymakers worldwide to brace for the fallout, evoking fears of a supply shock dwarfing the 1970s oil embargo. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has stranded around 200 oil tankers at sea, including 37 Indian vessels, crippling a route that carries 22% of global oil shipments. India sources nearly 50% of its crude oil and LNG through this vital passage, heightening risks to its energy security. Crude prices have skyrocketed to $116 per barrel by day ten, a 60% leap from $72–73 on February 28, when markets were sliding. Attacks on energy infrastructure have exacerbated the chaos: Iran deployed drones against oil and gas facilities, refineries, and storage in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Iraq, targeting major refineries in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which are key global export hubs. Israel retaliated by striking Iranian oil depots. Anticipating the growing dangers of war, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have reduced production in certain oil fields. Recession Warnings Mount Amid soaring oil prices, Scotland-based Wood Mackenzie has warned of a global recession stemming from this war. Its report asserts that if the conflict persists for 15 days, the world economy could slide into a great depression, driven primarily by an oil crisis eclipsing the 1970s shock, and echoes of 1929 haunt the markets. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that if oil prices rise by around 10% throughout the year and hold steady, global inflation could climb by about 0.4%. She added that world output might decline by 0.1 to 0.2% as a result. Rising oil and gas prices tend to have the most profound impact on the global economy. Price Pressures Fuel prices have spiked globally: 14% in the US, 6% in Britain, 15% in Australia, 10% in South Korea and China, 20% in Pakistan (petrol at 321 PKR per litre), 22% in the Maldives, and 15% in Sri Lanka, but have increased only by Rs 60 for domestic Indian consumers. If crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period, petrol and diesel prices in the country could rise by 5–6 rupees per litre. Higher oil costs will inflate freight charges for goods, directly impacting everything from food prices to industrial output. Geopolitical Shadows Energy experts foresee prices hitting $150–200 per barrel if the war drags on, amplifying inflation and economic strain. India's Finance Ministry voiced concerns in its monthly review meeting but highlighted ample forex reserves as a buffer. Unanswered questions loom: how long can Iran sustain the fight? Will Gulf states stay neutral? Are Russia and China seeking to prolong this war through indirect support? China has deployed its spy warship to the Arabian Sea, positioning it perilously close to the conflict zone. Beijing remains continuously linked to Iran through its rail–road corridor. India's prudent stockpiling and non-aligned stance, echoing its Ukraine playbook of pushing peace over partisanship, position it as a beacon of stability. While the world teeters, New Delhi is focused on energy security and citizen welfare.

A family torn apart

Kirtikar

The Lok Sabha polls saw high drama this year, especially in Maharashtra where the split in two parties had also seen families divide over their political loyalties. On the day of polling for the Lok Sabha elections in April this year, Meghna Kirtikar openly declared that she had disapproved of her husband Gajanan Kirtikar’s decision to go with Eknath Shinde. It was an example of how the party split had affected die-hard Shiv Sena-loyalist families. She even used not-so-polite language while addressing the chief minister. While the veteran union leader and former member of Parliament went with Shinde, his son Amol had stayed back with Uddhav Thackeray. In the Lok Sabha polls, the father-son were almost pitted against each other but then the senior Kirtikar pulled out of the contest for a ticket, instead, throwing his weight behind his son. Amol lost by a meagre 48 votes, it brought into the open a political divide within the family. A Shiv Sena leader even called for Gajanan’s expulsion for ‘anti-party activities’ which included campaigning for his son.


Gajanan Kirtikar began his career as a union leader and was an MLA from Malad for from 1990. Between 1995 and 1999, during the Shiv Sena-BJP government, Kirtikar was made the minister of state for home and tourism. A fiery union leader, Kirtikar led the Sthaniya Lokadhikar Samiti Mahasangha for several years. The organisation was affiliated to the Shiv Sena and fought for the rights of Maharashtrians who were employed.


In 2014, he successfully contested the Lok Sabha elections and defeated Congress veteran Gurudas Kamat. His victory run continued when he defeated Sanjay Nirupam by over 2.5 lakh votes becoming a ‘giant killer’. It was believed that the Mumbai North West constituency, which has a sizeable population of non-Marathi speakers would elect the Hindi-speaking Nirupam. During his tenure as an MLA, Kirtikar has also been a minister for home and tourism during the Sena-BJP government between 1995 and 1999.


His son Amol was a part of the Yuva Sena led by Aditya Thackeray and has been relatively low profile. The day the party announced his nomination from the Mumbai North West parliamentary constituency, he received summons from the Enforcement Directorate for questioning in what was called the ‘khichdi scam’ or irregularities in awarding contracts to distribute food to migrant workers and the homeless during the Covid lockdown. That was the time the Shiv Sena (UBT) had majority influence in the municipal corporation. Amol’s loss by 48 votes became the lowest victory margin in the polls.

Comments

bottom of page