A Gathering Storm in Mumbai

Maharashtra’s civic polls could reshape alliances and reset political equations.

As Maharashtra reaches the halfway mark of an eventful 2025, its political landscape is being redrawn by fragile alliances, jostling egos and a steady erosion of trust. The ruling Mahayuti coalition - an uneasy trinity of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) - is beginning to creak under its own weight.

The coalition came to power by sweeping 234 of the state’s 288 assembly seats in the 2024 elections. At the time, it projected an image of cohesion and durability. Barely a year later, discontent is simmering within the alliance as its smaller partners grow increasingly wary of the BJP’s expanding shadow.

At the heart of the BJP’s assertive strategy is Girish Mahajan, a longtime loyalist of Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Once a grassroots organiser, Mahajan now operates as a political heavyweight and is widely seen as Fadnavis’s enforcer-in-chief. With his intricate network of contacts and deft handling of coalition irritants, Mahajan has become a parallel centre of power in the state, an ‘unofficial’ deputy chief minister in all but name.

Mantralaya insiders whisper that Mahajan has his fingers on every lever. Beyond managing the BJP’s own house, he is said to be micromanaging relations with both the Shiv Sena and the NCP factions by brokering compromises, snuffing out dissent and ensuring that the BJP remains the coalition’s gravitational core. His rise has come at the cost of his allies’ clout. Both Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar now find themselves with shrinking room to manoeuvre, increasingly sidelined in decisions that once required consensus.

The opposition, meanwhile, is in no position to exploit the ruling alliance’s vulnerabilities. The Shiv Sena (UBT), helmed by Uddhav Thackeray, is struggling to arrest a downward spiral. Once dominant in Mumbai and other urban pockets, the party is losing its grip. A steady trickle of defections has demoralised its cadre, and its urban voter base is drifting - some toward the more combative rhetoric of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), others into the BJP’s widening net.

The recent removal of the Sena (UBT)’s deputy leader Sudhakar Badgujar for speaking against the party underscores schisms within the party. His expulsion just before the local and municipal body elections highlights the unrest among local leaders. This has given an advantage to the BJP and the Shinde-led Sena, who may use the situation to attract unhappy members.

Talk of a political reunion between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray has resurfaced, fuelled by appeals from MNS scion Amit Thackeray. But BJP leaders scoff at the notion, with Minister Nitesh Rane insisting that Raj “has not forgotten the betrayal” of their 2006 split. Whether such a rapprochement would revive the opposition or merely underline its irrelevance remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde finds himself increasingly marginalised. Once the architect of Uddhav Thackeray’s downfall, Shinde now contends with an assertive BJP that dominates portfolios and policy. His efforts to rally support through Marathi identity politics and outreach to defectors have had limited success. Infighting between his ministers and NCP allies has further exposed the Mahayuti coalition’s internal strains.

Even within his own camp, Shinde faces discontent. His MLAs grumble about playing second fiddle to the BJP. With the critical BMC polls approaching, Shinde must prove he is more than a placeholder in a coalition that increasingly sees him as dispensable.

Though the BJP publicly backs the Mahayuti alliance, it is quietly preparing for life beyond it. A sweeping membership drive has added over ten million new recruits in Maharashtra, underscoring the party’s ambition to expand its grassroots reach independently. Girish Mahajan’s deft orchestration of defections from the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) fits into a broader strategy of consolidating long-term dominance. The BJP is also grooming a bench of second-rung leaders across urban and semi-urban centres as insurance for a post-alliance future.

The Congress, meanwhile, is unravelling. Senior leader Dilipkumar Sananda’s expected defection to Ajit Pawar’s NCP has intensified pressure on the party’s state chief, Harshvardhan Sapkal. With dwindling cadre strength and little generational renewal, the Congress risks slipping into irrelevance.

Ajit Pawar’s faction, despite its numerical strength, suffers from a trust deficit. His break with his uncle, Sharad Pawar, is widely seen as opportunistic, costing him moral legitimacy. Many of his MLAs, unsure of their future, are hedging bets by keeping lines open to both the BJP and the NCP (Sharad Pawar).

The government’s administrative challenges are compounded by its precarious financial situation. The 2025-26 state budget shows a ballooning debt of Rs. 9.32 lakh crore and a revenue deficit nearing Rs. 46,000 crore. Popular schemes like the ‘Majhi Ladki Bahin’ financial assistance programme and promised farm loan waivers have been delayed, sparking unrest in rural areas and opposition criticism in the legislature.

As the civic polls loom, all eyes will be on who finally gains control of India’s wealthiest civic body - the BMC which is far more than a political prize. Control over Mumbai will also shape narratives leading up to the 2029 Assembly election. For it is the BMC poll that will serve as a referendum on the Mahayuti’s performance, the relevance of the Opposition’s and gauge voter mood amid shifting political tides.

(The writer is a political observer. Views personal.)