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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints...

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints at a cautious but deliberate reset. Both sides have shown a keenness to replace acrimony with pragmatism. The chill began during the tenure of Justin Trudeau, whose government publicly alleged that Indian agents may have been involved in violent activities on Canadian soil. India rejected the accusations as unfounded and politically motivated. The dispute triggered tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, the freezing of high-level dialogue and an atmosphere of mutual suspicion. For two countries that had long prided themselves on democratic affinity, shared Commonwealth ties and large diaspora links, the rapid deterioration was remarkable. Canada is home to one of the world’s largest Indian diasporas, numbering well over a million people. Trade and educational links have grown steadily since the late twentieth century. Canadian universities attract tens of thousands of Indian students each year, while Indian professionals and entrepreneurs have contributed significantly to Canada’s economic life. These human connections had long acted as ballast in the relationship. But politics, as ever, can overwhelm social ties. Symbolic Weight Carney’s New Delhi visit therefore carries symbolic weight. A former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he has entered politics with a reputation for technocratic competence rather than ideological theatrics. His five-day visit to India, from late February to early March, was carefully choreographed to signal renewal. Beginning in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, he met industrialists, bankers and policymakers, emphasising economic cooperation as the cornerstone of the revived relationship. India today is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with ambitions to expand its industrial base, modernise infrastructure and transition towards cleaner sources of energy. Canada, meanwhile, possesses abundant natural resources, technological expertise and capital. The two economies are complementary in ways that diplomacy had recently obscured. One of the most notable outcomes of the visit was a long-term agreement on uranium supply. Canada’s mining giant Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy concluded a ten-year deal worth roughly $2.6bn to supply more than 20m pounds of uranium. For India, which is expanding its civil nuclear programme to meet rising energy demand while limiting carbon emissions, reliable access to uranium is strategically important. The agreement will help fuel a new generation of small and medium reactors, which India sees as crucial to its energy transition. Canada, for its part, is among the world’s leading producers of uranium. Renewed nuclear cooperation therefore reflects not only diplomatic reconciliation but also the convergence of economic interests. Previous agreements between the two countries had faltered amid political tensions. This time both governments have emphasised implementation and timely delivery. Trade Boost Trade, too, looms large in the reset. Bilateral commerce between India and Canada currently hovers around $10bn to $12bn annually, a modest figure for economies of their scale. Both governments have spoken of raising that number dramatically, potentially to $50bn by the end of the decade. Negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), long stalled, have been revived with renewed urgency. Here global geopolitics provides an additional incentive. The increasingly protectionist trade policies of the United States under Donald Trump have unsettled many of Washington’s traditional partners. Tariff threats and economic nationalism have encouraged countries to diversify their commercial relationships. India and Canada, both heavily exposed to the American market, now see advantage in strengthening bilateral trade and investment as a hedge against volatility emanating from Washington. Education and innovation are another pillar of the renewed engagement. Canadian universities are exploring the possibility of establishing campuses in India, enabling Indian students to access Canadian education without leaving the country. Joint research programmes and technological collaboration are expected to deepen intellectual ties that already run deep. Beyond economics lies a broader strategic calculation. The Indo-Pacific has become the central theatre of twenty-first-century geopolitics. As China’s influence expands across Asia, many countries are seeking new partnerships to preserve a balance of power and maintain open sea lanes. India has positioned itself as a leading voice in this effort, promoting a vision of a free, stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Strategic Dynamics Canada, though geographically distant, has begun to pay greater attention to the region’s strategic dynamics. Collaboration with India could therefore form part of a wider network involving countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand. For Ottawa, engagement with New Delhi offers a way to remain relevant in Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape. For India, Canadian support adds another partner to its growing Indo-Pacific coalition. Yet enthusiasm should be tempered with realism. Diplomatic resets are easier to announce than to sustain. The political sensitivities that strained relations in the past have not vanished entirely. Canada’s domestic politics, particularly debates surrounding diaspora activism, remain complex. India, meanwhile, is unlikely to tolerate external criticism on matters it considers internal. Managing these differences will require careful diplomacy and mutual restraint. Nevertheless, the symbolism of the present moment matters. The revival of high-level dialogue, the signing of concrete economic agreements and the visible warmth between leaders all suggest a shared desire to turn the page. In the grand sweep of history, relations between India and Canada have always rested on deeper foundations than temporary political quarrels. If the current reset succeeds, it could transform a once-strained partnership into one of the more promising relationships in the Indo-Pacific era. (The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

A Grand Gamble

The Mahagathbandhan gears up to take on Narendra Modi’s juggernaut in Bihar, but unity may prove more elusive than slogans suggest.

Bihar
Bihar

Ringing in Bihar’s election season, the Mahagathbandhan (or ‘Grand Alliance’) has plunged into a frenzy of activity. Opposition leaders are crisscrossing Patna and beyond, holding strategic meetings to rally the ranks and craft a credible challenge to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its regional ally, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United). Yet beneath the surface of photo opportunities and declarations of unity, cracks are already beginning to show, and time may not be on the alliance’s side.


The immediate goal of this week’s gatherings is to steal some of the spotlight from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is set to visit Madhubani on Thursday. Over two days, the alliance’s key figures, including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, Congress leaders, and leftist parties, will deliberate on a common programme and attempt to project an image of cohesion. It is an image that the Mahagathbandhan desperately needs to project if it hopes to mount a serious challenge.


At the last such meeting, Yadav was appointed coordinator for the alliance’s activities in a symbolic, if not uncontested, endorsement of his leadership. The idea, insiders said, was to ensure that the campaign would not degenerate into a personality clash between Tejashwi and the NDA, but rather be seen as a broad coalition effort. Even so, the underlying tensions were apparent: while RJD veterans speak confidently of Tejashwi as the face of the coalition, Congress leaders are markedly less enthusiastic.


The Congress, never an easy partner, is demanding clarity on seat-sharing at the earliest – a demand echoed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist). In private, Congress functionaries fret that the RJD will attempt to corner the lion’s share of the constituencies by invoking its voter base among Yadavs and other Other Backward Classes (OBCs).


In 2020, Congress contested 70 seats, only to suffer a drubbing, winning just 19. This time, party bosses, including national president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, are pressing for an equal or higher share, emboldened by internal calculations that the BJP’s alliance with Nitish Kumar has weakened its hold on Bihar.


While Kumar, once hailed as ‘Sushasan Babu’ (Mr. Good Governance), is indeed a diminished figure, the BJP’s formidable election machinery remains a daunting force.


Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan’s internal messaging remains muddled. In public, senior Congress figures in Bihar, like Akhilesh Prasad Singh, declare Tejashwi Yadav the undisputed chief ministerial face. In the same breath, others, like Bihar Congress in-charge Krishna Allavaru, insist that no final decision has been made. The RJD sees Tejashwi’s projection as crucial for energising the youth and OBC vote base that it traditionally banks on.


Adding to the confusion is the lack of a coherent narrative. Leaders like Mukesh Sahni of the Vikassheel Insaan Party and Kunal of the CPI(ML) speak passionately about unemployment, migration and Bihar’s chronic underdevelopment. But these issues risk being drowned out in an election season dominated by caste calculations and political intrigue. Worse, the Opposition’s critique of the NDA government sounds hollow unless accompanied by fresh solutions.


The Mahagathbandhan’s great advantage is its caste arithmetic. With the RJD commanding Yadav-Muslim votes, the Congress tapping into upper-caste minorities, and the Left and regional parties courting Dalits and other OBC groups, the alliance has the theoretical numbers to challenge the NDA. The risk, however, is that the alliance’s heavy dependence on caste groups may alienate younger voters, who yearn for economic opportunity rather than symbolic representation.


If the Mahagathbandhan fails to sort out its leadership questions and seat-sharing headaches before campaigning begins in earnest, it will once again find itself outgunned, outspent and outmanoeuvred.


For now, Bihar’s Grand Alliance is betting that common cause against PM Modi and Nitish Kumar will be enough to keep its squabbling partners tethered together. History, however, suggests otherwise. In Indian politics, unity forged in opposition often shatters under the strain of ambition.

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