A Necessary Liability

Despite questions over his health, the Bihar veteran remains indispensable to the NDA’s electoral arithmetic.

Bihar

For decades, Nitish Kumar has been the linchpin of Bihar’s political landscape. His reputation as Sushashan Babu (‘Mr. Good Governance’) and his knack for shifting alliances have ensured his survival despite numerous upheavals. But now, at 74, murmurs about his health and cognitive decline have cast a shadow over his leadership. Critics, led by political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor and the Congress, are raising uncomfortable questions. Allegations of erratic behavior, forgetting names and diminished administrative grip have fueled speculation. Yet, for all the uncertainty surrounding his condition, the BJP cannot afford to discard him.

Kishor’s call for a medical bulletin on Kumar’s mental health has amplified concerns already brewing within Bihar’s political circles. Reports of his missteps - laughing during the national anthem, fumbling through public addresses and mistaking locations - have given his opponents plenty of ammunition. His declining health forced him to skip the Bihar Business Connect Summit, a crucial event for the state’s economic ambitions. But even as doubts mount, the JD(U) remains adamant and his son, Nishant Kumar, is making quiet moves to ensure his father remains in power.

For the BJP, this presents a conundrum. With Assembly elections looming, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) remains vital to its coalition’s electoral calculus. The BJP has twice the number of seats as the JD(U) in the Bihar Assembly, yet it continues to accommodate Kumar’s leadership. Why? Because the party understands that Kumar’s influence extends beyond mere numbers.

In Bihar’s complex caste-driven politics, Kumar’s appeal to the Kurmi and Koeri OBC groups is invaluable. While the BJP enjoys robust support among upper castes, it struggles to penetrate the broader OBC and EBC vote banks without Kumar’s backing. The JD(U), despite its electoral fluctuations, has consistently maintained a vote share between 15-25 percent, making it a crucial ally.

The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha election reinforced this reality. The BJP-led NDA secured 30 out of 40 seats in Bihar, but this success was largely because the JD(U) matched the BJP’s tally of 12 seats. Without the JD(U), the BJP risks not only losing numerical strength but also breaking the delicate caste coalition that has kept the RJD at bay.

Should the BJP sideline Kumar, the consequences could be dire. The anti-RJD vote would splinter, allowing Tejashwi Yadav’s party, with its formidable Muslim-Yadav base, to consolidate power. The BJP has historically struggled to make inroads among these communities, making Kumar’s ability to bridge the gap essential.

Beyond electoral arithmetic, Nitish Kumar’s governance record remains his strongest selling point. His tenure has been marked by improvements in infrastructure, law and order, and economic growth. Initiatives such as the Saat Nischay scheme (Seven Resolves) have burnished his image as a development-oriented leader. Despite his political flip-flopping, his administration remains a preferable alternative to the RJD’s legacy of Jungle Raj.

Moreover, unlike many of his rivals, Kumar has largely stayed clear of corruption scandals. The JD(U) does not carry the baggage of scams that have plagued the RJD, whose de facto leader, Tejashwi Yadav, is still battling allegations from his family’s time in power.

Despite Kumar’s declining health, the BJP remains cautious about pushing him aside. The question is not whether the BJP wants to move beyond Kumar but whether it can do so without imploding its own coalition. Nitish Kumar, ever the political survivor, has made it clear he intends to stay. His son Nishant’s increasing presence signals an attempt to secure a political succession plan within the JD(U). But the BJP, wary of another family-driven power structure in Bihar, is unlikely to entertain such an arrangement.

The BJP’s best bet is to ensure a transition that does not alienate Kumar’s core voters. The party has been strategically elevating its own leaders in Bihar, but none command the same cross-caste appeal as Kumar. A misstep could embolden the RJD, allowing Tejashwi Yadav to exploit any rift within the NDA.