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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints...

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints at a cautious but deliberate reset. Both sides have shown a keenness to replace acrimony with pragmatism. The chill began during the tenure of Justin Trudeau, whose government publicly alleged that Indian agents may have been involved in violent activities on Canadian soil. India rejected the accusations as unfounded and politically motivated. The dispute triggered tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, the freezing of high-level dialogue and an atmosphere of mutual suspicion. For two countries that had long prided themselves on democratic affinity, shared Commonwealth ties and large diaspora links, the rapid deterioration was remarkable. Canada is home to one of the world’s largest Indian diasporas, numbering well over a million people. Trade and educational links have grown steadily since the late twentieth century. Canadian universities attract tens of thousands of Indian students each year, while Indian professionals and entrepreneurs have contributed significantly to Canada’s economic life. These human connections had long acted as ballast in the relationship. But politics, as ever, can overwhelm social ties. Symbolic Weight Carney’s New Delhi visit therefore carries symbolic weight. A former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he has entered politics with a reputation for technocratic competence rather than ideological theatrics. His five-day visit to India, from late February to early March, was carefully choreographed to signal renewal. Beginning in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, he met industrialists, bankers and policymakers, emphasising economic cooperation as the cornerstone of the revived relationship. India today is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with ambitions to expand its industrial base, modernise infrastructure and transition towards cleaner sources of energy. Canada, meanwhile, possesses abundant natural resources, technological expertise and capital. The two economies are complementary in ways that diplomacy had recently obscured. One of the most notable outcomes of the visit was a long-term agreement on uranium supply. Canada’s mining giant Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy concluded a ten-year deal worth roughly $2.6bn to supply more than 20m pounds of uranium. For India, which is expanding its civil nuclear programme to meet rising energy demand while limiting carbon emissions, reliable access to uranium is strategically important. The agreement will help fuel a new generation of small and medium reactors, which India sees as crucial to its energy transition. Canada, for its part, is among the world’s leading producers of uranium. Renewed nuclear cooperation therefore reflects not only diplomatic reconciliation but also the convergence of economic interests. Previous agreements between the two countries had faltered amid political tensions. This time both governments have emphasised implementation and timely delivery. Trade Boost Trade, too, looms large in the reset. Bilateral commerce between India and Canada currently hovers around $10bn to $12bn annually, a modest figure for economies of their scale. Both governments have spoken of raising that number dramatically, potentially to $50bn by the end of the decade. Negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), long stalled, have been revived with renewed urgency. Here global geopolitics provides an additional incentive. The increasingly protectionist trade policies of the United States under Donald Trump have unsettled many of Washington’s traditional partners. Tariff threats and economic nationalism have encouraged countries to diversify their commercial relationships. India and Canada, both heavily exposed to the American market, now see advantage in strengthening bilateral trade and investment as a hedge against volatility emanating from Washington. Education and innovation are another pillar of the renewed engagement. Canadian universities are exploring the possibility of establishing campuses in India, enabling Indian students to access Canadian education without leaving the country. Joint research programmes and technological collaboration are expected to deepen intellectual ties that already run deep. Beyond economics lies a broader strategic calculation. The Indo-Pacific has become the central theatre of twenty-first-century geopolitics. As China’s influence expands across Asia, many countries are seeking new partnerships to preserve a balance of power and maintain open sea lanes. India has positioned itself as a leading voice in this effort, promoting a vision of a free, stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Strategic Dynamics Canada, though geographically distant, has begun to pay greater attention to the region’s strategic dynamics. Collaboration with India could therefore form part of a wider network involving countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand. For Ottawa, engagement with New Delhi offers a way to remain relevant in Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape. For India, Canadian support adds another partner to its growing Indo-Pacific coalition. Yet enthusiasm should be tempered with realism. Diplomatic resets are easier to announce than to sustain. The political sensitivities that strained relations in the past have not vanished entirely. Canada’s domestic politics, particularly debates surrounding diaspora activism, remain complex. India, meanwhile, is unlikely to tolerate external criticism on matters it considers internal. Managing these differences will require careful diplomacy and mutual restraint. Nevertheless, the symbolism of the present moment matters. The revival of high-level dialogue, the signing of concrete economic agreements and the visible warmth between leaders all suggest a shared desire to turn the page. In the grand sweep of history, relations between India and Canada have always rested on deeper foundations than temporary political quarrels. If the current reset succeeds, it could transform a once-strained partnership into one of the more promising relationships in the Indo-Pacific era. (The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

A Necessary Liability

Despite questions over his health, the Bihar veteran remains indispensable to the NDA’s electoral arithmetic.

Bihar
Bihar

For decades, Nitish Kumar has been the linchpin of Bihar’s political landscape. His reputation as Sushashan Babu (‘Mr. Good Governance’) and his knack for shifting alliances have ensured his survival despite numerous upheavals. But now, at 74, murmurs about his health and cognitive decline have cast a shadow over his leadership. Critics, led by political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor and the Congress, are raising uncomfortable questions. Allegations of erratic behavior, forgetting names and diminished administrative grip have fueled speculation. Yet, for all the uncertainty surrounding his condition, the BJP cannot afford to discard him.


Kishor’s call for a medical bulletin on Kumar’s mental health has amplified concerns already brewing within Bihar’s political circles. Reports of his missteps - laughing during the national anthem, fumbling through public addresses and mistaking locations - have given his opponents plenty of ammunition. His declining health forced him to skip the Bihar Business Connect Summit, a crucial event for the state’s economic ambitions. But even as doubts mount, the JD(U) remains adamant and his son, Nishant Kumar, is making quiet moves to ensure his father remains in power.


For the BJP, this presents a conundrum. With Assembly elections looming, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) remains vital to its coalition’s electoral calculus. The BJP has twice the number of seats as the JD(U) in the Bihar Assembly, yet it continues to accommodate Kumar’s leadership. Why? Because the party understands that Kumar’s influence extends beyond mere numbers.


In Bihar’s complex caste-driven politics, Kumar’s appeal to the Kurmi and Koeri OBC groups is invaluable. While the BJP enjoys robust support among upper castes, it struggles to penetrate the broader OBC and EBC vote banks without Kumar’s backing. The JD(U), despite its electoral fluctuations, has consistently maintained a vote share between 15-25 percent, making it a crucial ally.


The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha election reinforced this reality. The BJP-led NDA secured 30 out of 40 seats in Bihar, but this success was largely because the JD(U) matched the BJP’s tally of 12 seats. Without the JD(U), the BJP risks not only losing numerical strength but also breaking the delicate caste coalition that has kept the RJD at bay.


Should the BJP sideline Kumar, the consequences could be dire. The anti-RJD vote would splinter, allowing Tejashwi Yadav’s party, with its formidable Muslim-Yadav base, to consolidate power. The BJP has historically struggled to make inroads among these communities, making Kumar’s ability to bridge the gap essential.


Beyond electoral arithmetic, Nitish Kumar’s governance record remains his strongest selling point. His tenure has been marked by improvements in infrastructure, law and order, and economic growth. Initiatives such as the Saat Nischay scheme (Seven Resolves) have burnished his image as a development-oriented leader. Despite his political flip-flopping, his administration remains a preferable alternative to the RJD’s legacy of Jungle Raj.


Moreover, unlike many of his rivals, Kumar has largely stayed clear of corruption scandals. The JD(U) does not carry the baggage of scams that have plagued the RJD, whose de facto leader, Tejashwi Yadav, is still battling allegations from his family’s time in power.


Despite Kumar’s declining health, the BJP remains cautious about pushing him aside. The question is not whether the BJP wants to move beyond Kumar but whether it can do so without imploding its own coalition. Nitish Kumar, ever the political survivor, has made it clear he intends to stay. His son Nishant’s increasing presence signals an attempt to secure a political succession plan within the JD(U). But the BJP, wary of another family-driven power structure in Bihar, is unlikely to entertain such an arrangement.


The BJP’s best bet is to ensure a transition that does not alienate Kumar’s core voters. The party has been strategically elevating its own leaders in Bihar, but none command the same cross-caste appeal as Kumar. A misstep could embolden the RJD, allowing Tejashwi Yadav to exploit any rift within the NDA.

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