A Region on Edge

The ancient city of Aleppo in Syria is again a crucible of violence. A surprise offensive by Syrian rebels has reignited a civil war that has raged for 13 years, displacing millions and destabilising the region. The consequences, as ever, are unlikely to remain confined to Syria’s borders.

When the city fell entirely into the hands of Bashar al-Assad’s government in 2016, it marked a turning point in the war, largely thanks to Russia’s relentless airstrikes and Iran-backed militias. But this week’s events suggest that the war, which had settled into a grim stalemate, is far from over.

The current rebel offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group once affiliated with al-Qaida, has already seized control of a dozen towns in Aleppo’s northern province. This escalation coincides with ongoing US-backed Israeli confrontations with Iranian proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.

For Assad, supported by Russia and Iran, the offensive is a dangerous distraction. Iran’s entanglements in Gaza and Lebanon have weakened its ability to reinforce Syrian government forces, leaving Aleppo vulnerable. Meanwhile, Turkey, which backs several rebel groups, has its own interests in ensuring that Assad’s forces do not reclaim full control of the region.

Aleppo’s strategic location as a crossroads of empires—Hellenistic, Roman, Byzantine, and Ottoman—made it a prize for centuries. Before the war, the city was Syria’s largest, with 2.3 million residents thriving in a bustling commercial hub. Its souqs, or marketplaces and ancient citadel reflected a rich cultural heritage. But in 2012, Aleppo became the focal point of Syria’s civil war, splitting into government-controlled west and rebel-controlled east.

The battle for Aleppo between 2012 and 2016 symbolised the broader war’s brutality. The rebels’ initial capture of eastern districts was hailed as a bold step against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had already faced uprisings across the country. However, the rebels’ hopes for a quick victory were dashed by Assad’s determination and international backers. Russia’s 2015 intervention, marked by its air force’s systematic bombardment of rebel-held areas, turned the tide decisively in the regime’s favour.

The recapture of Aleppo in late 2016 was a watershed moment. It cemented Assad’s dominance over Syria’s urban centres but at a catastrophic human and cultural cost. It was not just a military victory for Assad but a showcase of modern proxy warfare.

Russia and Iran’s support highlighted the importance of external powers in dictating the conflict’s course. Russian airstrikes, combined with the efforts of Iran-backed militias like Hezbollah, provided the critical manpower and firepower that Assad’s beleaguered forces lacked.

The refugee crisis, spurred by Aleppo’s fall and other atrocities, transformed Europe’s political landscape. The arrival of millions of Syrians fuelled far-right nationalist movements across the continent, challenging the European Union’s cohesion and straining its resources.

Meanwhile, the vacuum created by the war allowed extremist groups like the Islamic State to rise, exporting terrorism and violence across the globe. The subsequent international interventions, including US-led coalitions and Russian military campaigns, turned Syria into a battlefield for competing geopolitical ambitions.

Aleppo remains a microcosm of Syria’s enduring pain and division. Whether the renewed fighting will lead to a decisive shift or simply deepen Syria’s agony remains to be seen. But the current flare-up could signal a shift. The rebels’ ability to retake territory and challenge government forces after years of stagnation points to the eroding dominance of Assad’s coalition.

The fighting could invite new interventions, particularly from Russia and Turkey, whose interests in Syria are increasingly at odds. The risk of spillover is heightened by the tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the broader volatility surrounding Iran.