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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

A Region on Edge

Syria

The ancient city of Aleppo in Syria is again a crucible of violence. A surprise offensive by Syrian rebels has reignited a civil war that has raged for 13 years, displacing millions and destabilising the region. The consequences, as ever, are unlikely to remain confined to Syria’s borders.


When the city fell entirely into the hands of Bashar al-Assad’s government in 2016, it marked a turning point in the war, largely thanks to Russia’s relentless airstrikes and Iran-backed militias. But this week’s events suggest that the war, which had settled into a grim stalemate, is far from over.


The current rebel offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group once affiliated with al-Qaida, has already seized control of a dozen towns in Aleppo’s northern province. This escalation coincides with ongoing US-backed Israeli confrontations with Iranian proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.


For Assad, supported by Russia and Iran, the offensive is a dangerous distraction. Iran’s entanglements in Gaza and Lebanon have weakened its ability to reinforce Syrian government forces, leaving Aleppo vulnerable. Meanwhile, Turkey, which backs several rebel groups, has its own interests in ensuring that Assad’s forces do not reclaim full control of the region.


Aleppo’s strategic location as a crossroads of empires—Hellenistic, Roman, Byzantine, and Ottoman—made it a prize for centuries. Before the war, the city was Syria’s largest, with 2.3 million residents thriving in a bustling commercial hub. Its souqs, or marketplaces and ancient citadel reflected a rich cultural heritage. But in 2012, Aleppo became the focal point of Syria’s civil war, splitting into government-controlled west and rebel-controlled east.


The battle for Aleppo between 2012 and 2016 symbolised the broader war’s brutality. The rebels’ initial capture of eastern districts was hailed as a bold step against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had already faced uprisings across the country. However, the rebels’ hopes for a quick victory were dashed by Assad’s determination and international backers. Russia’s 2015 intervention, marked by its air force’s systematic bombardment of rebel-held areas, turned the tide decisively in the regime’s favour.


The recapture of Aleppo in late 2016 was a watershed moment. It cemented Assad’s dominance over Syria’s urban centres but at a catastrophic human and cultural cost. It was not just a military victory for Assad but a showcase of modern proxy warfare.


Russia and Iran’s support highlighted the importance of external powers in dictating the conflict’s course. Russian airstrikes, combined with the efforts of Iran-backed militias like Hezbollah, provided the critical manpower and firepower that Assad’s beleaguered forces lacked.


The refugee crisis, spurred by Aleppo’s fall and other atrocities, transformed Europe’s political landscape. The arrival of millions of Syrians fuelled far-right nationalist movements across the continent, challenging the European Union’s cohesion and straining its resources.


Meanwhile, the vacuum created by the war allowed extremist groups like the Islamic State to rise, exporting terrorism and violence across the globe. The subsequent international interventions, including US-led coalitions and Russian military campaigns, turned Syria into a battlefield for competing geopolitical ambitions.


Aleppo remains a microcosm of Syria’s enduring pain and division. Whether the renewed fighting will lead to a decisive shift or simply deepen Syria’s agony remains to be seen. But the current flare-up could signal a shift. The rebels’ ability to retake territory and challenge government forces after years of stagnation points to the eroding dominance of Assad’s coalition.


The fighting could invite new interventions, particularly from Russia and Turkey, whose interests in Syria are increasingly at odds. The risk of spillover is heightened by the tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the broader volatility surrounding Iran.

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