A Reset in the Indian Ocean

After a rocky diplomatic year, India and the Maldives are finding common ground again.

Last year, India-Maldives relations appeared to be at their nadir. The newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu’s initial pro-China stance, coupled with the lingering echoes of the “India Out” campaign, raised concerns in New Delhi about the future of its traditionally warm ties with Malé. However, the trajectory of 2025 suggests a marked improvement in bilateral relations, buoyed by mutual strategic necessities and historical interdependencies.

The Maldives’ former President Mohamed Nasheed, in a recent discussion at the Raisina Dialogue, succinctly captured the island nation’s predicament when he said that the safety, security and prosperity of the Maldives depended on keeping good relations with India. His remarks underscored an enduring reality that New Delhi remains Malé’s most reliable partner in times of crisis.

Muizzu’s early days in office were marked by tensions with India. His administration distanced itself from the country’s long-standing security partnership with New Delhi, seeking to reduce the Indian military’s footprint in the archipelago. This shift was widely perceived as a tilt towards China, which has been increasing its influence in the Maldives through infrastructure investments albeit at the cost of significant debt distress.

Yet, the need for developmental assistance, economic stability, and crisis management brought New Delhi back into the picture. The Maldives’ Foreign Minister MoosaZameer had explicitly distanced his government from the ‘India Out’ campaign that had been championed by former President Abdulla Yameen. This was reinforced by Defence Minister Ghassan Maumoon’s visit to India, where he acknowledged New Delhi’s consistent role as the Maldives’ first responder in times of crisis.

For decades, India has extended military, economic and humanitarian aid to the Maldives, irrespective of the political dispensation in Malé. When mercenaries attempted a coup in 1988, India swiftly launched ‘Operation Cactus’ to reinstate the legitimate government. Following the 2004 Asian tsunami, India provided substantial relief aid. In 2014, under Yameen’s rule, New Delhi had dispatched potable water when Malé’s only desalination plant suffered a fire accident – this, despite his anti-India stance. More recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, India delivered medical supplies and extended $250 million in financial aid to the Maldives when tourism, its economic lifeline, collapsed.

These instances illustrate why Maldivian leaders eventually gravitate back towards India. A recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two nations will facilitate further High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs), reinforcing India’s long-term role in Maldivian development.

Beyond economic and developmental cooperation, defence relations are also stabilizing. India has agreed to replace its military personnel operating aerial platforms in the Maldives with civilian experts. Simultaneously, India has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening the Maldives’ defence capabilities, announcing a $4 million grant for supplying essential equipment to the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF).

The timing of these developments is crucial, given China’s continued attempts to entrench itself in the Indian Ocean region. During a recent visit to Malé, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized fast-tracking key infrastructure projects, particularly in housing and road construction. His visit, while symbolic of Beijing’s growing influence, lacked a strategic security component, indicating that Malé is maintaining some distance when it comes to deeper military engagement with China.

Unlike its assertive stance against Chinese encroachments elsewhere in South Asia, India has opted for quiet diplomacy and strategic patience in dealing with the Maldives. By ensuring a smooth transition in the defence arrangement and continuing its developmental initiatives, India has reinforced its indispensable role without appearing overbearing.

This approach seems to be yielding results. The recalibration of ties, characterized by renewed defence cooperation and economic collaboration, suggests that the worst of last year’s turbulence is behind them. If recent months are any indication, the Maldives understands the perils of over-reliance on Beijing and the value of sustaining a cooperative relationship with India. For India, patience and continued engagement appear to be the most effective strategies in ensuring that its smallest maritime neighbour remains within its strategic fold.