top of page

By:

Abhijit Joshi

31 August 2024 at 10:09:24 am

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would...

The Pawar Paradox Never Ends

As speculation over Sharad Pawar’s equations with the NDA resurfaces, Maharashtra is reminded that its most enduring political constant has always been uncertainty. There is an old Mumbai saying that seasoned political observers have long enjoyed repeating: “Ghode ki laath aur boss ki baat par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never trust a horse’s kick or a boss’ word; either can come without warning). If Maharashtra’s politicians were updating the proverb today, one more cautionary line would surely be included: “Sharad Pawar ke siyasi faisle par kabhi bharosa mat karna” (never assume you know Sharad Pawar's next political move). Few leaders in independent India have reinvented themselves as often, confounded both allies and adversaries with equal regularity, or remained politically relevant across nearly five decades quite like Sharad Pawar. Every major realignment in Maharashtra has, in one way or another, borne his imprint. Backstairs Intrigue That reputation has once again set the state’s political circles buzzing. A late-night meeting between senior NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) leader Jayant Patil and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, followed by indications that Pawar's party could extend conditional support to the Centre's proposed Delimitation Bill, has revived speculation that Maharashtra may be headed towards yet another political reshuffle. Supriya Sule has firmly dismissed suggestions that her party is preparing to join the NDA, insisting that any support for the Delimitation Bill would depend entirely on safeguards ensuring fairness for every state. Yet, the rumours persist. That, perhaps, is the enduring ‘Pawar effect.’ In Maharashtra, a single meeting involving Sharad Pawar is often enough to trigger discussions of an entirely new government. Pawar’s political career has consistently demonstrated that certainty is an illusion. In 1978, barely 38 years old, he engineered one of Maharashtra’s greatest political upsets. Breaking away from the Congress, he toppled the Vasantdada Patil government and stitched together the Progressive Democratic Front, or Pulod, by bringing together parties separated by ideology but united by arithmetic. He became the state’s youngest Chief Minister, a distinction that still defines his public image. That episode also revealed the two principles that have shaped his politics ever since. Ideology, for Pawar, has rarely been an immovable barrier. Political arithmetic has almost always mattered more. Equally, power has never been viewed as permanent. The pattern repeated itself through the decades. Pawar moved between Congress politics and regional politics with remarkable ease, served as India’s Defence Minister, broke away to establish the Nationalist Congress Party in 1999 over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin, spent nearly fifteen years governing alongside the Congress, and then stunned the political establishment yet again in 2019 by helping construct the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Few believed the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP could coexist under one roof. Pawar proved otherwise. Even the dramatic dawn swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis and the late Ajit Pawar in November 2019 ultimately enhanced Sharad Pawar’s reputation. Within days, he had reunited most of his fractured party and succeeded in installing Uddhav Thackeray as Chief Minister. What initially appeared to be his biggest setback became another demonstration of his political resilience. Today, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is no longer the formidable organisation it was before the split of 2023. While he retains considerable public goodwill, national stature and a respectable parliamentary presence, his legislative strength within Maharashtra has diminished considerably, prompted questions about the party’s future. Reports suggest that sections within the NCP (SP) are increasingly uncomfortable with the prospect of remaining in perpetual opposition and favour exploring some form of understanding with the BJP. Pawar himself is believed to have resisted such suggestions, while Supriya Sule has repeatedly ruled out any immediate shift. Yet the existence of internal debate appears difficult to dismiss. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly asserted that there is no question of new entrants joining the Mahayuti. His statement reflects political logic. The BJP already enjoys numerical dominance alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Bringing Sharad Pawar into the alliance may strengthen the NDA externally, but it could also generate fresh leadership ambitions, competing centres of influence and unnecessary internal tensions. Issue-Based Cooperation If there is any movement, therefore, it is more likely to begin with issue-based cooperation in Parliament than with an immediate formal alliance. That explains why the Delimitation Bill has assumed such significance. Supriya Sule has indicated that her party could support the legislation provided the Centre guarantees a uniform 50 percent increase in parliamentary seats for every state. The position differs from that adopted by several INDIA bloc partners and has naturally fuelled speculation. Yet issue-based support should not automatically be interpreted as political surrender. Sharad Pawar has rarely subscribed to the idea that opposition requires opposing every government initiative. Throughout his career he has maintained working relationships across party lines, often separating legislative cooperation from electoral competition. That flexibility has repeatedly helped him preserve political relevance even when his party's electoral fortunes fluctuated. If, despite present denials, Pawar eventually chooses to support or formally align with the NDA, the consequences would extend well beyond Maharashtra. For the INDIA bloc, it would represent perhaps the most damaging psychological blow in western India, depriving it of one of its most experienced strategists and consensus-builders. Congress would lose a veteran ally at precisely the moment it is attempting to rebuild its organisational strength in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) could find itself increasingly isolated, forcing a reassessment of both alliances and political strategy before the next Assembly election. And for the BJP, it would amount to the political neutralisation of perhaps its most accomplished regional rival. Sharad Pawar’s greatest political strength has always been his refusal to close any door before absolutely necessary. Strategic ambiguity has been one of its principal instruments. At 85, he remains among the last practitioners of an older style of coalition politics, where negotiation often counts for more than confrontation, and where tomorrow’s ally may well have been yesterday’s fiercest opponent. (The writer is a political observer. Views personal.

A Reset in the Indian Ocean

Updated: Mar 21, 2025

After a rocky diplomatic year, India and the Maldives are finding common ground again.

Indian Ocean

Last year, India-Maldives relations appeared to be at their nadir. The newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu’s initial pro-China stance, coupled with the lingering echoes of the “India Out” campaign, raised concerns in New Delhi about the future of its traditionally warm ties with Malé. However, the trajectory of 2025 suggests a marked improvement in bilateral relations, buoyed by mutual strategic necessities and historical interdependencies.


The Maldives’ former President Mohamed Nasheed, in a recent discussion at the Raisina Dialogue, succinctly captured the island nation’s predicament when he said that the safety, security and prosperity of the Maldives depended on keeping good relations with India. His remarks underscored an enduring reality that New Delhi remains Malé’s most reliable partner in times of crisis.


Muizzu’s early days in office were marked by tensions with India. His administration distanced itself from the country’s long-standing security partnership with New Delhi, seeking to reduce the Indian military’s footprint in the archipelago. This shift was widely perceived as a tilt towards China, which has been increasing its influence in the Maldives through infrastructure investments albeit at the cost of significant debt distress.


Yet, the need for developmental assistance, economic stability, and crisis management brought New Delhi back into the picture. The Maldives’ Foreign Minister MoosaZameer had explicitly distanced his government from the ‘India Out’ campaign that had been championed by former President Abdulla Yameen. This was reinforced by Defence Minister Ghassan Maumoon’s visit to India, where he acknowledged New Delhi’s consistent role as the Maldives’ first responder in times of crisis.


For decades, India has extended military, economic and humanitarian aid to the Maldives, irrespective of the political dispensation in Malé. When mercenaries attempted a coup in 1988, India swiftly launched ‘Operation Cactus’ to reinstate the legitimate government. Following the 2004 Asian tsunami, India provided substantial relief aid. In 2014, under Yameen’s rule, New Delhi had dispatched potable water when Malé’s only desalination plant suffered a fire accident – this, despite his anti-India stance. More recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, India delivered medical supplies and extended $250 million in financial aid to the Maldives when tourism, its economic lifeline, collapsed.


These instances illustrate why Maldivian leaders eventually gravitate back towards India. A recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two nations will facilitate further High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs), reinforcing India’s long-term role in Maldivian development.


Beyond economic and developmental cooperation, defence relations are also stabilizing. India has agreed to replace its military personnel operating aerial platforms in the Maldives with civilian experts. Simultaneously, India has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening the Maldives’ defence capabilities, announcing a $4 million grant for supplying essential equipment to the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF).


The timing of these developments is crucial, given China’s continued attempts to entrench itself in the Indian Ocean region. During a recent visit to Malé, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized fast-tracking key infrastructure projects, particularly in housing and road construction. His visit, while symbolic of Beijing’s growing influence, lacked a strategic security component, indicating that Malé is maintaining some distance when it comes to deeper military engagement with China.


Unlike its assertive stance against Chinese encroachments elsewhere in South Asia, India has opted for quiet diplomacy and strategic patience in dealing with the Maldives. By ensuring a smooth transition in the defence arrangement and continuing its developmental initiatives, India has reinforced its indispensable role without appearing overbearing.


This approach seems to be yielding results. The recalibration of ties, characterized by renewed defence cooperation and economic collaboration, suggests that the worst of last year’s turbulence is behind them. If recent months are any indication, the Maldives understands the perils of over-reliance on Beijing and the value of sustaining a cooperative relationship with India. For India, patience and continued engagement appear to be the most effective strategies in ensuring that its smallest maritime neighbour remains within its strategic fold.

Comments

bottom of page