A Shattered Peace

South Sudan’s uneasy peace is once again under threat. The recent arrests of key opposition figures, including Oil Minister Puot Kang Chol and Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam, have sent tremors through the world’s youngest nation, reigniting fears that the country could slide back into civil war. Both men are senior members of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), the faction led by Vice-President Riek Machar, whose bitter rivalry with President Salva Kiir has been the defining fault line of South Sudanese politics.

These arrests follow a surge in violence in the northern Upper Nile state, where the White Army militia loyal to Machar reportedly seized a strategic town near the Ethiopian border. The government, led by President Kiir’s loyalists, has accused Machar’s allies of backing the rebels. The situation escalated further when South Sudanese troops surrounded Machar’s residence in Juba, while several of his senior military officials were placed under house arrest. The government has provided no official explanation, but opposition voices have condemned the detentions as a violation of the 2018 peace agreement that ended the brutal five-year civil war.

The detentions and rising tensions have raised alarms within the international community. The United Nations and the African Union have warned that the violence could spill over, while peace advocates within South Sudan fear that the country is on the precipice of another deadly conflict. With elections repeatedly postponed (now scheduled for 2026) South Sudan may once again descend into chaos if the peace deal unravels.

After decades of conflict, the country gained independence from Sudan in 2011, becoming the world’s newest sovereign state. Yet the euphoria of nationhood was short-lived. By 2013, a political power struggle between Kiir, a Dinka, and Machar, a Nuer, erupted into full-scale civil war. The fighting, largely along ethnic lines, resulted in the deaths of more than 400,000 people and the displacement of millions.

A peace agreement brokered in 2018 sought to put an end to the bloodshed, with Kiir and Machar reluctantly agreeing to form a unity government. The deal, however, has been fragile from the start. Key provisions, including the integration of opposition forces into the national army and the establishment of transitional governance structures, have faced chronic delays.

Machar’s camp has condemned the detentions as a direct attack on the peace accord. While the government has sought to downplay fears of renewed war, history suggests otherwise. The last time tensions between Kiir and Machar escalated in 2016, Juba became a battleground. The power-sharing arrangement collapsed, and Machar was forced to flee the country.

One of the gravest concerns is the role of the White Army, the militia group that has historically fought alongside Machar. Its recent resurgence in Upper Nile state and the capture of strategic territory have fueled speculation that the opposition leader still holds considerable military leverage. If Machar’s forces continue to clash with government troops, the ceasefire could collapse entirely.

The broader geopolitical context also complicates matters. South Sudan remains heavily reliant on oil revenues, but instability has deterred foreign investment. China, which has significant oil interests in the country, has expressed concern over the deteriorating security situation.

South Sudan’s repeated delays in holding elections have only deepened its crisis. Originally planned for 2023, the vote has now been postponed to 2026 due to logistical and financial constraints. The absence of a legitimate electoral process has enabled Kiir and Machar to maintain their uneasy cohabitation which is fast becoming untenable.

The next few weeks will determine whether South Sudan steps back from the abyss or slides into yet another war. For too long, South Sudan has been trapped in a cycle of violence, fragile truces and failed political arrangements. The arrests of opposition leaders mark a dangerous moment of brinkmanship. If South Sudan is to avoid another tragic chapter in its history, its leaders must recognize that peace is not merely the absence of war but the presence of justice, stability and political inclusivity.