A Slow-Burning Catastrophe

As the Sudanese army gains ground in Khartoum, the conflict threatens to spiral into a regional catastrophe.

The carnage in Sudan grinds on. The latest airstrike, which killed at least 270 people in a market in North Darfur’s Tora, underscores the relentless brutality of a war that has already claimed 150,000 lives and displaced 12 million. While the Sudanese military vehemently denies targeting civilians, it remains difficult to distinguish between combatants and bystanders in a conflict that has turned marketplaces and displacement camps into battlefields. The war, which erupted in April 2023 between Sudan’s regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is now a contest of attrition, with neither side showing any intent to end the bloodshed.

The recent recapture of Khartoum’s Republican Palace marks a rare symbolic victory for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), but does little to alter the grim trajectory of the war. The RSF, despite its setbacks, remains deeply entrenched in the capital and holds large swathes of Darfur and other regions. Meanwhile, the conflict’s reverberations are felt beyond Sudan’s borders. With its top general now threatening Chad’s airports and accusing South Sudan of harbouring traitors, Sudan’s descent into chaos risks engulfing its neighbours.

The roots of this conflict trace back to the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s long-ruling autocrat. What initially appeared to be a democratic opening soon devolved into a power struggle between the very men who had orchestrated Bashir’s downfall - Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s army chief, and Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the RSF. The two generals initially ruled together after a 2021 coup derailed Sudan’s fragile democratic transition. But their uneasy alliance collapsed into open warfare in 2023, as both vied for dominance in a country already teetering on the edge.

The SAF represents Sudan’s traditional military elite, while the RSF, an offshoot of the infamous Janjaweed militias that perpetrated atrocities in Darfur in the early 2000s, has built its power on smuggling networks, illicit gold trading, and foreign backers. The RSF’s rapid advances in the early months of the war alarmed not just the army but also Sudan’s neighbours, many of whom fear the paramilitary force’s growing influence.

Sudan’s war is no longer a purely internal affair. The military has accused the United Arab Emirates of secretly arming the RSF, a claim Abu Dhabi denies despite mounting evidence from UN and US intelligence reports. The conflict has also heightened tensions with Chad and South Sudan, both of whom fear a spillover. Chad, which has absorbed tens of thousands of refugees from Sudan, now faces the prospect of its own military installations becoming targets. South Sudan, itself fragile and dependent on Sudanese oil exports, is equally wary of being dragged into the fray.

The humanitarian toll is staggering. Sudan’s economy, already in shambles before the war, has collapsed entirely. Famine looms, with the UN warning that millions face starvation as both warring factions weaponize food supplies. With no functional government, no peace process in sight, and an increasingly dire humanitarian situation, Sudan risks becoming the world’s next failed state.

For the Sudanese military, retaking key government buildings in Khartoum is a psychological boost, but does not alter the war’s fundamental dynamics. The RSF remains a formidable force, deeply embedded in Sudan’s urban and rural areas.

Meanwhile, the international response has been tepid. Western governments, preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere, have done little beyond issuing routine condemnations. The African Union has proven ineffective. The warlords leading both factions remain indifferent to diplomacy, believing military might will ultimately decide Sudan’s fate.

If Sudan’s war continues on its current trajectory, the country risks becoming another Libya or Syria - a broken state where armed factions, foreign mercenaries, and external powers carve up territory for their own gain. With the Nile Basin and the Horn of Africa already mired in instability, Sudan’s collapse could set off a regional conflagration.