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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Abeer’s Dream and the Plastic Planet

We might one day see our planet wrapped in what looks like a massive plastic bag.

One morning, my nine-year-old grandson, Abeer, woke up from a frightening dream. He was trembling, his face pale with fear. After soothing him for a while, we gently asked what had happened.


Taking a deep breath, he gathered his courage and began to recount his dream. He said he saw himself walking along a beach in Goa with his parents. The sun was shining, the waves lapping gently against the shore—until, quite suddenly, a giant wave rose from the sea and swept him away.


At first, he was terrified and confused, unable to make sense of what was happening. But after a few moments, the wave seemed to calm down—and then, strangely, it began to speak to him. To his amazement, he realised he could breathe normally underwater. It was as though the sea itself wanted to tell him something, to share its sorrow.


As his fear slowly faded, Abeer began to look around. What he saw next was heartbreaking. The water was choked with countless pieces of plastic—bottles, bags, wrappers, nets—all swirling around him in a vast whirlpool.


Then he spotted a family of sea turtles. The father turtle was struggling to breathe, his nostrils blocked by two plastic straws. The mother turtle’s head and neck were entangled in a nylon fishing net, while the baby was trapped inside a sheet of plastic, flapping her tiny flippers helplessly.


Nearby, a shark was gasping for air, plastic pouches jammed in its gills, bleeding and writhing in pain. A little farther away, a whale swam past with its enormous mouth wide open, filtering the water for plankton—but instead of food, it was swallowing bottles, cans, and plastic bags that drifted all around.


When Abeer finished his story, none of us spoke for several minutes. The room was filled with silence, heavy and thoughtful. It was only a dream, yet it had clearly shaken him to the core.


Finally, he looked up and said with quiet determination that he would never throw away plastic carelessly again. He promised to ensure that no plastic waste would be generated in his home—and that he would urge his friends to do the same.


So, dear readers, welcome to The Plastic Planet!


Often, photographs of Earth taken from space look breathtaking—our planet gleaming in magnificent shades of blue. As we all know, about 71 per cent of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, which is why it is so aptly called the Blue Planet.


Yet, I sometimes fear that in the coming decades, this beautiful blue may begin to fade from satellite images. Instead, we might one day see our planet shrouded in what looks like a massive plastic bag. A grim image, but one that may not be far from reality if we continue our current ways.


Let us then take a closer look at the world of plastics. The word 'plastic' comes from the Greek word 'plastikos', meaning something that can be moulded or shaped with ease. It is an apt description, for plastics are prized for their ability to take on countless forms—bottles, bags, toys, pipes, and much more.


Over the last century and a half, humankind has mastered the art of creating synthetic polymers—materials built from chains of carbon atoms derived from petroleum and other fossil fuels. These polymers consist of long, repeating units of atoms arranged in complex patterns.


It is the length of these chains and the way they are structured that give plastics their unique properties—strength, lightness, and flexibility. In essence, this remarkable structure is what makes them so plastic in the first place.


Yet, the very qualities that make plastic so versatile for humans have turned it into a threat for the planet. What began as an invention of convenience has quietly become a source of global concern.


Perhaps Abeer’s dream was more than just a child’s fancy — perhaps it was the ocean’s way of asking us to listen.


Plastics may have shaped our modern world, but they should not be allowed to reshape our planet’s destiny. Each small act — a refusal, a reuse, a rethink — adds up to something powerful.


More on this next week. Till then, have a nice weekend!


(The author is an environmentalist. Views personal.)

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