Ajit Pawar: At the Pinnacle, But the Climb Isn’t Over

Political fortune smiles on Ajit Pawar, but his future depends on managing alliances and avoiding complacency.

Ajit Pawar, widely known by his moniker ‘Ajit Dada,’ seems to be the most content figure in Maharashtra politics today. His political trajectory has exceeded even his own expectations. What sets him apart, however, is his fearlessness. Unlike most politicians, he seems unaffected by the prospect of losing support. Even if some of his MLAs were to switch sides, it would not rattle him. In many ways, he is luckier than many of his peers in the state's political scene.

Contrast this with the precarious position of Eknath Shinde, Maharashtra's former Chief Minister. Shinde's leadership is constantly under threat, with any dissatisfied MLA capable of defecting at a moment’s notice. This inherent instability keeps him on edge, adding a layer of tension to his governance.

Yet, Ajit Dada cannot afford complacency. His political future hinges on solidifying his position in the upcoming municipal, gram panchayat, and local elections. A poor showing in these contests could quickly undo his current political success. Furthermore, he must stay wary of his uncle, Sharad Pawar, whose reputation for turning the tide of politics remains legendary. Sharad Pawar’s ability to reshape events is well-known, and Ajit Dada would be wise to remain vigilant.

Currently, Ajit Dada’s path appears straightforward, with fewer obstacles than those faced by his rivals. But the real test will come with the upcoming local and municipal elections, where political bargaining and strategy will be crucial. Eknath Shinde is unlikely to concede easily, and the BJP, notorious for playing hardball with its allies, will add pressure. To maintain his momentum, Ajit Dada will need to leverage his political acumen and foster unity within his party.

One of his key priorities should be empowering younger leaders and women within his party. This approach would send a strong message to rival political factions while energizing his supporters. Ajit Dada would also do well to adopt a strategy similar to Sharad Pawar's—staying accessible to party workers and cultivating connections with second-rung leaders. By doing so, he can project himself as a leader who values grassroots support, which is essential for sustained political success.

A critical challenge for Ajit Dada is managing his relationship with the BJP’s central leadership, particularly Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Any attempt to sideline Fadnavis, as seen with Shinde’s recent difficulties, could lead to friction within the alliance. Shinde, once the BJP’s favoured leader, found himself in trouble when certain decisions were made without Fadnavis’s knowledge, straining their relationship. Ajit Dada must avoid repeating this mistake, as maintaining cohesion within the alliance is vital for his long-term prospects.

Winning the trust of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is another formidable challenge. The RSS’s reservations about Ajit Dada’s inclusion in the alliance are well-documented, and overcoming these ideological differences will require concerted effort. To change this perception, Ajit Dada must demonstrate a willingness to align with the RSS’s vision and actively engage with their initiatives.

Ajit Dada’s political strength is rooted in the support of the Maratha-Kunbi and Muslim communities, both crucial segments of his voter base. Ensuring their continued loyalty will be vital for his survival in Maharashtra’s competitive political landscape.

Ajit Pawar should draw inspiration from Sharad Pawar’s playbook by consolidating power in key regions. Sharad Pawar has consistently maintained the loyalty of specific districts and cities. Similarly, Ajit Dada must focus on strengthening his hold over areas like Pimpri-Chinchwad, which is already considered his stronghold, and expand its influence, much like Sharad Pawar has done with Baramati.

Maharashtra’s sugar belt plays a decisive role in the state’s political calculations, and Ajit Dada must engage aggressively with this powerful lobby. Winning over sugar cooperatives and their stakeholders will be key to solidifying his political position in future elections.

Another critical focus for him is the identification and promotion of young leaders, even those from rival parties. The future of Indian politics lies in the hands of emerging leaders, and Ajit Dada can benefit from investing in them. By fostering a new generation of capable leaders, he can secure his political legacy and ensure the long-term strength of his party.

While Ajit Dada’s rise in Maharashtra politics is impressive, the road ahead is full of challenges. His relationship with the BJP, the RSS and his party workers will be central to his success. Moreover, he must remain alert to the machinations of his uncle, Sharad Pawar, who still holds significant sway in the state’s political landscape.

Ajit Dada also faces the challenge of balancing the demands of his voter base with the expectations of his alliance partners. The BJP may push for certain policies or positions that are unpopular with his core supporters, including the Maratha-Kunbi and Muslim communities. How he navigates these competing interests will define his future.

While Ajit Pawar currently enjoys a position of relative strength and confidence, complacency could prove costly. As he navigates this complex terrain, his ability to adapt and deliver will determine whether he becomes a long-term political titan or a fleeting figure in Maharashtra’s political history.

(The author is a political commentator. Views personal.)