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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Articulate Supriya overshadows loyal Jayant Patil

Updated: Nov 12, 2024

Jayant Patil

Mumbai: If there’s one key lesson that Jayant Patil has learnt from his party boss Sharad Pawar, it is the art of maintaining warm relationships and having friends across the political spectrum. While he’s loyal to his party chief, Sharad Pawar, there’s been no dearth of political options for him in various parties. And there must’ve been at least a few occasions when he’s considered a move.


Despite his political clout and his experience, there have been consistent efforts to undermine his supremacy in the party. Be it his cold relations with Ajit Pawar and now the alleged ‘Supriya stamp’ on the party’s choice of candidates and decisions, Patil’s clout seems to ruffle his colleague’s feathers. During the Lok Sabha elections, Devendra Fadnavis had remarked that Patil had been kept away from an active campaign. The senior NCP leader’s disappointment probably prompted Pawar to recently announce that “bigger roles” were being planned for him. Pawar said that at a public meeting in Sangli, Patil’s stronghold which stands behind him, quite firmly.


Ever smiling and affable, he’s known to wield considerable influence over Islampur in Sangli district, a constituency nurtured by his visionary father Rajarambapu Patil who set up big cooperatives and educational institutes in the area.


His tenure in the Nationalist Congress Party, which he joined when Pawar split from the Congress in 1999, has been marked by internal strife and competition. His closeness to Pawar senior didn’t go down to well with Ajit. A politician from Sangli also recalls how Patil was initially hesitant to move from the Congress and was among the later ones to follow Pawar to the NCP. “That hesitation or reluctance was remembered by Pawar but his influence over Islampur politics is such that he’s an asset to any party,” says the politician from the NCP.


An educated and erudite politician, he is known to have an uncomfortable relationship with Ajit. With Ajit at the helm until now, his decisions within the party were frequently stalled or overturned by Ajit. Appointments recommended by him didn’t always go through. This unrest was palpable and the BJP, in which he has several friends, has been waiting for an opportunity to grab him to their side.


Patil, who has the distinction of having presented 10 state budgets without a break in a decade, has warm relations with the BJP. The party apparently has been wanting him for long. For the past few years, there have been consistent rumors and speculation that Patil may switch to the BJP. When investigating agencies ordered a probe into him, it was seen as an attempt to get him to defect. But he stayed put.


The upcoming polls are Patil’s first all-important assembly elections after the party split. But what can be best called the ‘Supriya stamp’ is all over the party—the choice of contestants such as Fahad Ahmad and Rohit RR Patil are her picks. Unperturbed, Patil is continuing with his public rallies and campaigns.

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