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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the...

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the government's much-touted armour of invincibility. Now, as the dust settles at Jantar Mantar, the corridors of power in Delhi are whispering about a larger, more existential threat. The true challenge for the BJP no longer lies on the streets, but within the ranks of its own National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners. ​Critics and political analysts are drawing sharp parallels between this student-led movement and the farmers' agitation from a few years ago. There is a strong sentiment within government circles that, much like the Kisan protests, which faced allegations of being fuelled by foreign funding, this current uprising did not stem entirely from a genuine, organic grassroots genesis. Instead, political observers note the presence of organized anarchist elements that quickly capitalised on the national outrage. ​This time, these elements appeared far stronger, and in stark contrast, the establishment looked surprisingly weak and reactive. The ultimate giveaway of the movement's broader political ambitions came moments after Pradhan stepped down. Abhijeet Dipke, the face of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), declared from the protest stage that the resignation was merely the "first wicket". This cricket analogy was a thinly veiled political declaration, making it amply clear that the underlying agenda of the protests extends far beyond education reforms, aiming directly at a regime change. Dipke’s words guarantee that the agitation, in some form or another, will continue. Tactical Victory ​To its credit, the government did manage a tactical victory by keeping the protesters' demands strictly focused on Pradhan's resignation. By doing so, they prevented the narrative from entirely engulfing the top leadership. However, the strategic damage to the ruling party has been catastrophic. The Modi administration has spent over a decade cultivating an image of a stubborn, decisive, and unyielding force that does not cave to public pressure. That image has now taken a severe, perhaps irreversible, beating. ​ During negotiations with activist and educationist Sonam Wangchuk, the government had already made it amply clear that it was actively considering Pradhan's exit. Yet, it inexplicably took almost a week to finally pull the plug and end the standoff. This delay highlights the enormity of the internal challenges and a creeping paralysis within the highest echelons of power. The establishment was likely suffering from a deep-seated complacency, overconfidently assuming the agitation would naturally fizzle out. It took more than 20 days of Wangchuk's hunger strike to finally shatter that hubris and force Delhi’s hand. ​ When juxtaposed with the last four major national agitations—stretching all the way from the Ram Mandir movement to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption crusade—the government's handling of this crisis stands out as an anomaly. The use of police force and state machinery remained remarkably minimal this time around. Despite this restrained approach, the reputational blow the government has suffered appears to be the maximum it has ever faced. A government that prides itself on immense strength is now being perceived as vulnerable. Political Mileage ​In the battle for political mileage, the opposition naturally tried to swoop in. The Congress party and Rahul Gandhi made concerted efforts to hijack the momentum mid-way, attempting to paint the movement in their own political colours. But the youth on the streets fiercely guarded their independence. The ultimate credit for bringing the government to its knees has squarely gone to Dipke. He emerged as the undisputed architect of the victory, leaving the traditional political opposition watching from the sidelines. Real Quake ​But the real political earthquake is yet to be measured. The government's bruised image sets the stage for its toughest political test yet. A weakened BJP center immediately alters the power dynamics within the NDA. The regional satraps and political allies who prop up the Modi government are watching closely. They have witnessed the ruling party blink, and they have seen that the mighty center can be forced into submission. ​ The immediate future of this administration now hinges completely on how these allies interpret this vulnerability. Will they demand larger portfolios? Will they force policy rollbacks of their own? The script for the next act of this high-stakes political play will not be written by the opposition, nor by the activists on the streets. It will be authored by the NDA allies who sit inside the government. For the Modi administration, the real crisis has only just begun. Prahlad Joshi appointed as Education Minister Union Minister Prahlad Joshi has been appointed as Education Minister following Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation from the post on Saturday. Joshi has been given additional charge of the Education Ministry besides his role as Consumer Affairs Minister. A Rashtrapati Bhavan communique said the President, as advised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has accepted the resignation of Pradhan with immediate effect. It said that on the advice of the Prime Minister, the President has directed that Joshi, Cabinet Minister, be assigned the charge of the Ministry of Education, in addition to his own duties. Earlier in the day, Pradhan resigned from his post following the Cockroach Janta Party-led student protests across the country, demanding his ouster over the NEET paper leak controversy. Pradhan said it is not a matter of "individual prestige" for him and he is disturbed to see the series of events that have unfolded in the last 10 days.

Assam, Bengal and the BJP’s New Political Geography

Assam and West Bengal signalled a broader political shift: traditional regional loyalties no longer guarantee voter allegiance.

The political landscape of eastern India has undergone a profound transformation over the past decade, culminating in significant electoral victories for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in states like Assam and, to a more complex extent, its rise as a dominant challenger in West Bengal. These developments are not isolated electoral outcomes but reflect deeper shifts in voter aspirations, identity politics, governance narratives, and national political strategy.


For decades, West Bengal and Assam followed distinct political trajectories. West Bengal was dominated by Left parties for over 30 years, followed by the rise of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) under Mamata Banerjee. Assam, on the other hand, alternated between the Indian National Congress and regional forces.


The BJP’s emergence in these states represents a break from entrenched political patterns. In Assam, the party successfully formed a government starting in 2016 and reinforced its position in subsequent elections. In West Bengal, while it did not capture power, it made unprecedented gains, becoming the principal opposition—a significant shift from its earlier marginal presence.


Assam’s political transformation in favour of the BJP can be attributed to a combination of strategic alliances, governance promises, and identity-based mobilisation.


One of the most critical factors was the focus on illegal immigration, a long-standing and sensitive issue in Assam. The BJP effectively tapped into concerns around demographic change and cultural identity, positioning itself as a protector of indigenous interests. This narrative resonated strongly with large sections of the electorate.


Leadership also played a key role. Figures like Himanta Biswa Sarma brought organisational strength, political acumen, and grassroots connect. His shift from the Congress to the BJP significantly weakened the opposition while strengthening the BJP's regional leadership.


Additionally, the BJP’s emphasis on infrastructure development, welfare schemes, and connectivity aligned with the aspirations of a younger electorate seeking economic growth and stability. Central government schemes were effectively localised, creating a perception of delivery and governance efficiency.


West Bengal presents a more nuanced picture. The BJP’s rise here is less about outright victory and more about a dramatic political expansion.


The party capitalised on anti-incumbency sentiments against the TMC, including allegations of corruption, governance fatigue, and political violence. It also worked to consolidate votes across communities that felt under-represented or dissatisfied.


A key strategy was the consolidation of Hindu votes across caste and class lines. The BJP framed its campaign around cultural identity, nationalism, and perceived appeasement politics by the ruling party. This ideological positioning helped it expand rapidly in rural and semi-urban areas.


Moreover, the BJP invested heavily in grassroots organisation, booth-level management, and cadre-building—areas where it had historically been weak in Bengal. The party also leveraged national leadership, particularly Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, to drive high-energy campaigns and voter outreach.


The BJP’s success in both states is also tied to broader national political trends. The party has effectively projected a strong central leadership, decisive governance, and a vision of national unity and development. This has helped it transcend regional barriers and appeal to voters beyond its traditional strongholds.


The use of technology, data-driven campaigning, and targeted messaging has further strengthened its electoral strategy. Social media outreach, direct benefit transfers, and narrative-building around nationalism have played significant roles in shaping voter perception.


Bigger Picture

The BJP’s gains in Assam and its rise in West Bengal carries several important implications.


First, they signal the party’s ability to expand geographically and challenge regional strongholds. This marks a shift from being perceived as a primarily Hindi-belt party to a truly pan-Indian political force.


Second, these outcomes reflect changing voter priorities. Issues like identity, governance, development, and national security are increasingly influencing electoral choices, sometimes outweighing traditional loyalties.

Third, the political competition in these states has intensified. In West Bengal, the emergence of a strong opposition has reshaped the political discourse, making elections more competitive and issue-driven.


The BJP’s electoral trajectory in Assam and West Bengal is a story of strategic expansion, ideological positioning, and organisational strength. In Assam, it represents the consolidation of power through governance and identity politics. In West Bengal, it marks the rise of a formidable challenger reshaping the state’s political dynamics for years to come.


Together, these developments highlight a broader transformation in Indian politics, where regional boundaries are becoming more permeable, and national narratives are increasingly influencing local outcomes.

 

(The writer is a BJP official based in Thane. Views personal.)


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