Axis of Pragmatism

In an era of shifting global alliances, Beijing and Moscow have reaffirmed their partnership, but to what end?

On the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their “true friendship” in a lengthy phone call. The conversation, initiated by Putin, came at a moment of renewed geopolitical flux when diplomatic overtures between Moscow and Washington are gaining momentum, and Beijing, ever the astute power broker, is maneuvering to maintain its influence.

The timing of the call was telling. Since launching its brutal offensive in Ukraine in 2022, the cost of the war has ratcheted for Russia, with Western sanctions battering its economy despite Putin gaining the upper hand. Amid these strains, China has not wavered in its support for Moscow - at least rhetorically. Beijing has avoided outright condemnation of Russia’s actions, instead casting itself as a neutral arbitrator, advocating for peace while simultaneously strengthening economic and strategic ties with its northern neighbor.

China’s motivations are layered. For Xi, Russia is a crucial partner in his vision of a multipolar world order, one in which Western dominance is eroded and alternative power centers emerge. The relationship is rooted in pragmatism rather than sentimentality. Russia provides China with energy and raw materials at favorable rates, while China supplies Russia with economic lifelines and diplomatic cover. This mutual dependence has deepened since 2022, with trade between the two nations reaching record highs and China stepping in as a key purchaser of Russian oil and gas, cushioning the blow of Western sanctions.

But China’s calculus is more complex than mere economic convenience. As Washington and Moscow inch closer to potential negotiations over Ukraine (driven in part by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed engagement with Putin), Beijing is positioning itself as an indispensable player. By extending support for peace talks while keeping its ties with Moscow intact, China is ensuring that any resolution to the Ukraine conflict will not sideline its interests.

Historically, the Sino-Russian relationship has been marked by both cooperation and rivalry. During the Cold War, ideological differences led to a bitter split between Beijing and Moscow, culminating in border skirmishes in the late 1960s. However, after the Soviet Union’s collapse, successive Chinese and Russian leaders found common cause in opposing U.S. hegemony. The two nations have since embarked on a strategic partnership that, while not an outright alliance, has strengthened in response to mutual concerns over Western influence. Military cooperation has intensified, with joint exercises and arms agreements signaling deeper coordination. The two countries also align in their opposition to Western-led institutions, advocating instead for alternatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.

Yet, despite the show of unity, cracks exist. China, ever mindful of its economic interests, has refrained from providing direct military assistance to Russia, wary of provoking Western sanctions that could hurt its own economy. Beijing has also sought to maintain robust trade ties with Europe, threading a delicate diplomatic needle. Furthermore, China’s long-term ambitions in Central Asia, once firmly within Moscow’s sphere of influence, are gradually encroaching on Russian interests, as Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative extends deeper into former Soviet republics.

The upcoming visits between Xi and Putin, first in Moscow for World War II commemorations and then in Beijing, underscore the enduring nature of this partnership. But they also raise questions about the limits of their alignment. Whether Putin is comfortable with this dynamic remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the shifting currents of U.S.-Russia diplomacy add another layer of complexity. Trump’s call with Putin and recent face-to-face meetings between Russian and American officials have led to the first serious discussions on a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. If a deal materializes, China will want a seat at the table, not only to protect its own interests but also to shape the post-war geopolitical landscape. So, while the Dragon and the Bear may march together for now, their paths may yet diverge.