Battle For Istanbul

Erdogan’s crackdown on his main rival has reignited mass protests. Can Turkey’s opposition seize the moment?

For five nights straight, the streets of Istanbul have swelled with anger. Tens of thousands of protesters have defied tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets to voice their fury at the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the city’s popular mayor and a leading contender to challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2028. His detention on corruption charges, denounced by his supporters as politically motivated, has sparked the largest wave of unrest since the Gezi Park protests of 2013.

The timing of İmamoğlu’s arrest was no coincidence. Days before he was set to be formally selected as the Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) presidential candidate, he was accused of an array of crimes, including bribery, extortion, and aiding a terrorist organisation. If convicted, he will be barred from running. The parallels with Erdogan’s own past are ironic. In 1998, as Istanbul’s mayor, Erdogan was jailed for inciting religious hatred after reciting a poem. The sentence only boosted his political fortunes, propelling him to the premiership in 2003 and the presidency in 2014.

But Turkey today is a different country. When Erdogan rose to power, he promised to free the nation from military tutelage and economic instability. Two decades later, his government stands accused of crushing dissent, weaponizing the judiciary and curtailing press freedoms. Meanwhile, social media is under siege. X (formerly Twitter) has refused to comply with Turkish court orders to block over 700 accounts, including those of opposition figures and journalists.

The protests reflect the deep unease in Turkish society. They are not just about İmamoğlu but about Erdogan’s increasingly autocratic grip on power. In March 2024, the CHP delivered a stunning electoral blow to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) by securing key municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara. The opposition’s gains were a clear rejection of Erdogan’s economic mismanagement as well as his clampdown on dissent. Now, with his most formidable rival behind bars, the opposition sees a blatant attempt to pre-empt the 2028 election.

Erdogan and his allies have dismissed the protests as a CHP plot to destabilise the country. The Justice Ministry insists that the judiciary is independent, yet Turkey’s courts have increasingly been accused of bending to political pressure. The revocation of İmamoğlu’s university degree (potentially rendering him ineligible for the presidency) only adds to the perception that the government is determined to sideline him at any cost.

There is also the Kurdish question. The CHP has worked closely with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), whose alleged ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) have long been a flashpoint in Turkish politics. The government has used these connections to paint the opposition as untrustworthy, and prosecutors are reportedly considering charging İmamoğlu with aiding an armed terrorist group. However, opposition leaders including SelahattinDemirtaş, the former co-leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP, have been jailed on similar grounds.

Erdogan’s own political future hangs in the balance. Constitutionally barred from running again in 2028, he could attempt to amend the rules. The more likely scenario is that he will seek to anoint a successor while ensuring the opposition remains fractured. İmamoğlu’s arrest could, however, backfire. The CHP has framed it as a “coup attempt against the next president,” and millions of Turks who are weary of Erdogan’s rule may rally behind the detained mayor as a symbol of defiance.

The question is whether the opposition can capitalise on this moment. The CHP’s history of internal divisions has long been its Achilles’ heel. If İmamoğlu’s detention galvanises a broad-based coalition, uniting disaffected conservatives, liberals and Kurds, the coming years could see Turkey’s most serious challenge to Erdogan’s dominance yet.

For now, the battle is being fought on the streets. The crowds gathered outside Istanbul’s city hall are a referendum on what kind of Turkey its people want to live in and whether the country’s increasingly repressive leader can still be stopped.