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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Bird-flu outbreak rattles Nandurbar

Around 2.40 lakh hens culled, Nine-lakh eggs destroyed


 

Mumbai: For the third time in 20 years, Avian Influenza has hit Navapur, in Nandurbar district, with over 2.40 lakhs birds culled in the past few days as worried farmers await compensation and effective vaccines.

 

In some areas, all the infected birds in big and small farms have been eliminated by specialist teams, as per World Health Organisation (WHO) and central government’s guidelines.

 

This is the third time after 2006 and 2021 that the town – which produces 10-lakh eggs daily – has come under the attack of Avian Influenza, commonly known as ‘bird flu’, said Navapur Poultry Association (NPA) President Arief Balesaria.

 

“We rank the biggest in production of eggs by Layer Chicken after Pune and Baramati. There are other egg producing centres in the state. The Layer Chicken are among the best laying hens. But in the past fortnight or so, our production has come to a complete stop,” a concerned Balesaria told The Perfect Voice.

 

The 10-lakh eggs are sent to markets in Mumbai, Nashik, Jalgaon and even Surat, which will now be fed by other smaller suppliers from Maharashtra or other states, he said.

 

The outbreak in Navapur started mysteriously on April 12, when a local farmer discovered five dead chickens in his farm. Initially it was suspected to be heatstroke and a local Veterinary prescribed medicines, but by afternoon more than four dozen birds were snuffed out.

 

By next morning, the farmer lost more than 300 chickens even as other alarmed farmers in a three-km vicinity reported similar tragedies as the birds simply dropped dead without apparent symptoms, said Balesaria.

 

In Balesaria’s own Wasim Poultry Farm, the situation was ditto – five days after the first incident, he found 55 birds dead and by that evening, over 130 were no more, though the chickens were eating normally and not appearing sick.

 

After the local authorities were informed, samples were collected from three of the worst-hit farms and tested at the National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases, Bhopal. They tested positive for the dreaded ‘Avian Influenza’, shocking the poultry farmers in Navapur.

 

Swift Action

Nandurbar Collector Dr. Mittali Sethi swung into action and declared large parts of Navapur as an ‘infected and surveillance’, spread over nearly 10 kms radius, banned all sale of poultry, bird-feed, and other related materials for three months, and local police were deployed to enforce the restrictions.

 

Meanwhile, by Monday, the infection figures zoomed up dramatically and till May 6, over 2.40 lakhs birds have been culled, nearly 9-lakh eggs destroyed plus 210 tonnes of bird feed disposed off, said Balesaria of the sudden calamity.

 

State and district officials have expressed apprehensions that the toll could climb much higher and have enforced strict monitoring in Navapur and also other egg-producing centres in north Maharashtra region.

 

Culling continues with the help of 18 officers daily while over 125 veterinarians and support staff have fanned out in the affected zone.

 

His son and third-generation independent farmer Tausif B. is grappling with his first bird-flu calamity and is worried about the future with his entire stock of 6 lakh eggs, 62,000 birds and 72-tons of feed destroyed.

 

“This time, my farm was not affected. But according to official protocols, my 30,000 chickens were culled and over 60,000 eggs destroyed. The government has banned us from restarting or restocking for at least three months, or till July 31, when the crisis is expected to be over. Presently, we are sitting idle and helpless as the losses pile up for all the 27 NPA member-farms,” rued Balesaria.

 

Farmers cry for better vaccines

As death stalks egg farms in Navapur, distressed farmers urged the Centre to urgently permit more effective vaccines to contain the spread of Avian Influenza, as existing measures are proving inadequate.
 
The NPA leaders claimed that the currently approved vaccines target the relatively milder H9N2 strain, while farms in the region are being devastated by the far more lethal H5N1 virus.
 
“The government has allowed vaccines for H9N2 strain. But the Layer chickens are hit by the deadlier H5N1 strain. Vaccines for H5N1 are already in use in several countries, including China, the United States and parts of Europe. Why are we being denied access to the same protection?” asked the NPA leaders.
 
India currently does not allow use of H5N1 vaccines, citing various concerns and relies on the traditional culling, movement restrictions and biosecurity measures in such outbreaks, though NPA alleges that Indian vaccine manufacturers are creating obstacles for getting better vaccines.

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