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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Pranayama: The Ancient Breath Practice for Modern Well-Being

Often described as ‘breathing exercises’, pranayama is much more than that.

In today’s fast-moving world, stress, anxiety and lifestyle-related disorders have become increasingly common. While modern medicine offers solutions, there is also growing interest in simple, natural practices that support physical and mental well-being. One such practice from the ancient yogic tradition is pranayama.


Often described as “breathing exercises”, pranayama is much more than that. It is a disciplined practice of regulating the breath to calm the mind, influence the body and balance the inner energy system.


Understanding Prana

The word “prana” is commonly translated as “breath”, but in yogic philosophy, it carries a deeper meaning. 'Prana' refers to the vital life force – the subtle energy believed to flow through the body and sustain physiological and mental functions. From a modern perspective, it may be loosely related to respiration, nervous system activity and bioelectrical impulses. While breath is its visible expression, prana itself is understood as a subtler force experienced through awareness.


What is Pranayama?

The term 'pranayama' is derived from two Sanskrit words: 'prana' (life force) and 'ayama' (expansion or regulation). It refers to the conscious regulation and expansion of vital energy through the breath. The practice involves three basic components — inhalation (Puraka), exhalation (Rechaka) and retention (Kumbhaka). By regulating these phases, pranayama is believed to influence the autonomic nervous system, shifting the body from a stress response to a calmer and more balanced state.


Ancient yogic texts regard pranayama as a key element of holistic health. In the Yoga Sutras of Patanjali, it is described as the fourth limb of Ashtanga Yoga, while the Hatha Yoga Pradipika emphasises its role in purifying the body’s subtle energy channels.


In yogic science, prana is understood to operate through five primary subdivisions, known collectively as the Pancha Prana. These include Prana Vayu, associated with breathing and cardiac activity in the chest region; Apana Vayu, linked to elimination and reproductive functions in the lower abdomen; Samana Vayu, connected to digestion and metabolism around the navel; Udana Vayu, believed to influence speech, memory and mental clarity in the throat and head; and Vyana Vayu, which is said to distribute energy throughout the body. Yogic traditions hold that the balanced movement of these five energies plays a vital role in maintaining health and vitality.


Different pranayama techniques are associated with specific effects on the body and mind. Anulom Vilom, or alternate nostril breathing, is often linked to balancing the nervous system and improving focus, while Bhramari, known as the humming bee breath, is commonly practised to reduce stress and promote mental calmness. Kapalbhati is traditionally regarded as a cleansing technique that may support digestion and metabolism, whereas Bhastrika is seen as a more energising practice that can increase vitality. Ujjayi is associated with enhanced concentration and inner awareness, while cooling techniques such as Sheetali and Sheetkari are believed to help regulate body heat. These practices can be adapted for beginners as well as more advanced practitioners.


Power of Breath Retention

One of the key aspects of pranayama is Kumbhaka, or breath retention, which plays an important role in many advanced breathing practices. It generally takes two forms: Antar Kumbhaka, in which the breath is held after inhalation, and Bahya Kumbhaka, in which it is held after exhalation. Practitioners believe Kumbhaka can improve carbon dioxide tolerance, support more efficient oxygen utilisation and help still the mind. However, experts advise that breath retention should be introduced gradually and practised under proper guidance.


To gain the full benefits of pranayama, correct technique is crucial. Practitioners are generally encouraged to sit comfortably with the spine erect, choose a calm and well-ventilated space, and maintain a slow, deep and rhythmic pattern of breathing. The practice is meant to be steady and controlled, without force or strain, and is usually recommended on an empty or light stomach. Those with existing medical conditions are advised to consult a qualified professional before beginning.


In a world that constantly pulls us outward, pranayama gently guides us inward. Simple, accessible and rooted in ancient wisdom, it remains a practice that can bring calm, balance and greater awareness to everyday life.


(The writer is a yoga educator and researcher based in Pune.)

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