Breaking the Bloc

The withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso marks a turning point for both the future of ECOWAS and the region’s security landscape.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), founded in 1975 to foster economic and political integration across West Africa, is witnessing a major crack after three of its most embattled members - Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger - officially withdrew from the regional bloc, marking the culmination of over a year of escalating tensions and diplomatic impasses. This split, following a series of military coups in these countries, signifies a new chapter in the political dynamics of West Africa that could reverberate across the region and beyond.

In 2020, Mali was the first to fall under junta rule, followed by Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023. Each of these countries experienced a military coup that ousted democratically elected leaders, prompting a swift and forceful response from ECOWAS, which has long advocated for democratic governance in the region. In reaction, the bloc imposed sanctions, including border closures, a no-fly zone, and the freezing of central bank assets, measures that hit the fragile economies of these countries hard.

However, the ECOWAS’ measures only seemed to strengthen the resolve of the juntas. The military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger condemned what they saw as ECOWAS’ close ties to Western powers, which they accused of pursuing foreign interests in the region. In response, the three countries formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a new bloc designed to assert their sovereignty, reject external interference, and promote a more independent regional agenda.

In December last year, ECOWAS offered a six-month grace period for the countries to reconsider their departure, but the junta governments were resolute. The creation of the AES was a pivotal shift in West African geopolitics. The new bloc, spearheaded by Mali’s military ruler Assimi Goïta, aims to foster stronger regional cooperation, not only in political and economic spheres but also in security. To counter the growing jihadist threat, which has devastated much of the Sahel, AES countries have vowed to establish a 5,000-strong military force. This move reflects a desire for greater autonomy in managing security challenges, with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger already receiving increasing support from Russia, including weapons and mercenaries, despite the ongoing instability.

While the AES offers these countries an alternative to ECOWAS, the long-term viability of this new alliance remains uncertain. All three countries are impoverished, landlocked, and highly dependent on their neighbours for trade and economic ties. In the short term, the withdrawal from ECOWAS might grant the juntas greater autonomy, but the three nations may soon face increased isolation and a deepening economic crisis. The impact of severing ties with a regional economic bloc that facilitates the free movement of people and goods cannot be understated, particularly for countries whose economic survival is heavily reliant on cross-border trade.

For ECOWAS, the departure of three member states is a profound blow. The bloc, which at its peak represented over 400 million people, now loses 76 million citizens and a vast expanse of territory. The loss of these countries, all of which are among the poorest in the region, challenges ECOWAS’s credibility and ability to enforce its will. The bloc’s repeated failures to prevent the coups and uphold democratic governance have exacerbated a legitimacy crisis that was already simmering beneath the surface.

Moreover, ECOWAS’s capacity to address regional security challenges is now under greater scrutiny. The Sahel, an arid region south of the Sahara, has become a global hotspot for jihadist violence. The insurgencies in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have inflicted devastating casualties, and the withdrawal of these countries from ECOWAS could exacerbate an already fragile security situation. The threat of jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS has only intensified in recent years, and the departure of these countries from a cooperative security framework could hinder efforts to combat extremism effectively.